Intercounty Variability of Net Migration at Older Ages as a Path‐Dependent Process

This article seeks to identify factors associated with the formation and development of nonmetropolitan destinations for older in‐migration, thereby explaining why some U.S. counties are more likely than others to be nonmetro retirement destinations. We contend that most nonmetro retirement destinations are established and developed over time through a path‐dependent process. When amenities are commodified as recreation and tourism, migration streams tend to be established that ultimately produce sustained in‐migration of older persons to selected destination communities. We use data from a variety of official sources and a spatial statistics methodology to examine intercounty variability in net migration rates at ages 60–74. Our findings are consistent with the aforementioned path‐dependent development framework. Counties with a long history of population growth, previous experience attracting older in‐migrants, attractive natural amenities, and a developed recreation and tourism industry are those most likely to be retirement‐age migration destinations. In contrast, agricultural heartland and relatively large population size are associated with lower rates of older in‐migration. Older in‐migration should be seen as neither a panacea for strapped rural communities nor a “pensions and care issue.” Older migrants can be “gray gold,” but they can also pose challenges, such as possibly increased demand for public services as they age in place.     

A lofistic rlgression analysis of response-time data where the hazard function is time dependent

A logistic-exponential model for analyzing response-time data involving regressor variables is modified to allow for non-consrarey of the hazard function. For the discrete observation case illustrated the logit of the probability of responding in a time interval cf arbitrary length is taken as the sum of a function of resressor variables and a function of the time variable. The particular functions chosen in the two medical examples analyzed are linear in the parameters involved. A polynomial function of time is employed in the absence of knowledge as to a more appropriate form. Various issues arising in the analysis made are discussed.     

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND THE EXCESS VOLATILITY OF STOCK PRICES

Evidence suggests the volatility of stock prices cannot be accounted for by information about future dividends. We argue that some of the volatility of stock prices in excess of fundamentals results from fluctuations in the amount of public information over time. Our model assumes that dividends and consumption are constant in the aggregate but that there are good firms and bad firms whose identity may be unknown to the public, as in Akerlof's "lemons" problem. In that case, the collective valuation of the constant dividend stream depends on the degree of informational asymmetry.     

A global disability indicator

Disability is difficulty performing roles and activities due to health problems. It is largely experienced by older persons as they accumulate progressive chronic conditions. To measure functional status of individuals and populations, contemporary surveys include sets of detailed items about disability. Little effort has gone into developing global indicators of disability that cover the concept briefly but well. A global disability indicator is a compact and inexpensive device for public health surveillance and scientific study of disablement. I present and critique items that have been used in North American surveys. Good candidates are selected for methodological study. Both laboratory-based cognitive studies and large-scale statistical studies are recommended; the first will reveal meanings of items and responses and the second, items' systematic structure and prediction ability. The ultimate goal is to identify one or a few fine indicators for widespread inclusion in population health surveys.     

Toward a model of changing disability identities: a proposed typology and research agenda

In light of recent developments in the field of disability studies, this article is an attempt to update a typology of orientations to disability developed over 20 years ago. The proposed revised typology represents a synthesis of two theoretical strands in sociology: opportunity structure theory and identity theory. The author provides examples from the literature, by and about people with disabilities, to illustrate each proposed type of disability identity. These types include normalisation, crusadership, affirmation, situational identification, resignation, apathy and isolated affirmation. The article suggests that individuals with disabilities may move along a 'career path' from one type to another over time, as they encounter new opportunities and interaction situations. The author proposes a research agenda to refine and establish the validity of the typology, and to determine its applicability to diverse populations of disabled people in the world today.     

The Dodo Manifesto

In this article I review the psychotherapy outcomes literature as it pertains to the Dodo hypothesis. This is the proposition that the effects of psychotherapy are due to common factors rather than specific techniques. A variety of sources provide substantial empirical support for the Dodo hypothesis. I conclude that CBT and medication do not appear to be any better than other methodologies for the treatment of psychological distress. I look at some of the criticisms of the Dodo hypothesis. I suggest that the major themes that emerge from the literature as it stands are conclusions that would be immediately obvious to most clinicians. Further, the utility of specific techniques has not been ruled out, due to some serious conceptual flaws in efficacy trials. I suggest that there are a number of ways for family therapists to survive in an evidence‐based world. One is to point out to champions of evidence‐based practice just how flimsy their claims are. Another would be to advocate for pluralism and to practise and conduct research under the aegis of a contextual philosophy.