The use of multiple scenarios by U.S. industrial companies

A growing number of firms have responded to the ‘unpredictable future’ by developing ways to measure their proposed strategies against several plausible alternative futures. Probably the most widely used of these techniques is multiple (or alternative) scenario analysis (MSA).Survey results indicate that approximately 150 of the Fortune ‘1000’ industrials now use MSA in their formal planning processes. Most have begun using MSA within the last 3 or 4 years. Furthermore, a number of other companies are considering its use. Survey results also show that firms do not follow the relatively rigorous procedures as suggested in the literature. Also, MSA seems to be most successful when management is both knowledgable and involved with scenarios from the beginning.     

Triple-goal estimates in two-stage hierarchical models

The beauty of the Bayesian approach is its ability to structure complicated models, inferential goals and analyses. To take full advantage of it, methods should be linked to an inferential goal via a loss function. For example, in the two-stage, compound sampling model the posterior means are optimal under squared error loss. However, they can perform poorly in estimating the histogram of the parameters or in ranking them. 'Triple-goal' estimates are motivated by the desire to have a set of estimates that produce good ranks, a good parameter histogram and good co-ordinate-specific estimates. No set of estimates can simultaneously optimize these three goals and we seek a set that strikes an effective trade-off. We evaluate and compare three candidate approaches: the posterior means, the constrained Bayes estimates of Louis and Ghosh, and a new approach that optimizes estimation of the histogram and the ranks. Mathematical and simulation-based analyses support the superiority of the new approach and document its excellent performance for the three inferential goals.     

Assessing and communicating heterogeneity of treatment effects for patient subpopulations: Panel discussion on considerations in design and analysis

Clinical trials are primarily conducted to understand the average effects treatments have on patients. However, patients are heterogeneous in the severity of the condition and in ways that affect what treatment effect they can expect. It is therefore important to understand and characterize how treatment effects vary. The design and analysis of clinical studies play critical roles in evaluating and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. This panel discussed considerations in design and analysis under the recognition that there are heterogeneous treatment effects across subgroups of patients. Panel members discussed many questions including: What is a good estimate of the treatment effect in me, a 65-year-old, bald, Caucasian-American, male patient? What magnitude of heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) is sufficiently large to merit attention? What role can prior evidence about HTE play in confirmatory trial design and analysis? Is there anything described in the 21st Century Cures Act that would benefit from greater attention to HTE? An example of a Bayesian approach addressing multiplicity when testing for treatment effects in subgroups will be provided. We can do more or better at understanding heterogeneous treatment effects and providing the best information on heterogeneous treatment effects.     

The Value of Vocalizing: 10‐Month‐Olds' Vocal Usage Relates to Language Outcomes at 15 Months

The interaction between infant's communicative competence and responsiveness of caregivers facilitates the transition from prelinguistic to linguistic communication. It is thus important to know how infants' communicative behavior changes in relation to different caregiver responses; furthermore, how infants' modification of communicative behavior relates to language outcomes. We investigated 39 10‐month‐old infants' communication as a function of mothers' attention and responses and the relationship to language outcomes at 15 months. We elicited infants' communicative behavior in three conditions: (1) joint attention: Mothers were visually attending and responding to infants' attention and interest; (2) available: Mothers were visually attending to infants, but not responding contingently to infants' attention and interest; (3) unavailable: Mothers were not attending to infants nor responding to them. Infants vocalized more when mothers attended and responded to them (conditions 1 and 2) than when mothers did not (condition 3), but infants' gesture and gesture‐vocal production did not differ across conditions. Furthermore, infants' production of a higher proportion of vocalizations in the unavailable condition relative to the joint attention condition correlated with, and predicted, infants' language scores at 15 months. Thus, infants who appear to be aware of the social effects of vocalizations may learn words better.     

Wirkungen des TV-Duells im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2005 auf die Wahlentscheidung

During the election campaign to the German Federal Election 2005 the incumbent chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his challenger Angela Merkel met one another on the occasion of a televised debate, the so-called “TV-duel”. This debate was viewed by roughly one third of the German electorate. It is analyzed, whether the perception of the TV-duel winner has had an influence on the voting decision. In the empirical analyses special regard is given to the stability of the winner perception until election day and the influence of subjective expectations towards the debate performance of the candidates. The data analyzed were collected by means of a new interviewing technology via the television screen of the respondents. It is shown, that the winner perception was largely stable and only marginally influenced by the media coverage following the debate. Subjective expectations towards the debate performance of the candidates turn out to be of no importance for the voting decision. The effect of the winner perception on voting behaviour was mediated by changing candidate orientations.