The contribution of ergonomics to risk analysis in the design process: the case of a future control room

The aim of this paper is to highlight how ergonomics contributes to risk analysis and risk management in a design project for a new reactor, the French EPR (European Pressurized Reactor). An iterative ergonomics design process has been conducted over the last 10 years through a Human Factors Engineering program at the French energy company EDF. A parallel has been drawn between a risk management process and this ergonomics process based on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) publications such as ISO/IEC Guide 73, ISO Guide 51, etc. The contribution of ergonomics to risk analysis is illustrated by an example: the automatic diagnosis, which is a very important technical device for safety. Five main types of risk have been identified via ergonomic analyses during the different design stages. Counter-measures have been implemented and their efficacy tested within the scope of new campaigns to assess human factors. However, the management of risks in such a design project requires the participation both of the different design entities involved in the project and of other experts in aspects of risk management, such as human reliability. The organization of collaborative participation remains a challenge to be addressed.     

Ackoff's Fables revisited: stories to inform operational research practice

This paper considers Ackoff's Fables, a set of short stories published by Ackoff in 1978 as guides to creative problem solving. The paper argues that storytelling of this kind contributes usefully to management and MS/OR education, before addressing how such Fables might be interpreted. It is demonstrated, using one of Ackoff's Fables, The Smart Jackass, for illustrative purposes, that interpretation of even apparently straightforward stories such as these is not unambiguous. The Fables can be interpreted in a multitude of different and sometimes contradictory ways, and the truths they might contain are not self-evident. Yet, as the basis for discussion, they still have much to offer as educational tools. The paper concludes with a discussion of literal truth in stories, and presents a classification of story types according to their relationship to literal truth.     

Improving Risk-Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications

How can we best allocate limited defensive resources to reduce terrorism risks? Dillon et al.'s Antiterrorism Risk-Based Decision Aid (ARDA) system provides a useful point of departure for addressing this crucial question by exhibiting a real-world system that calculates risk reduction scores for different portfolios of risk-reducing countermeasures and using them to rank-order different possible risk mitigation alternatives for Navy facilities. This comment points out some potential limitations of any scoring system that does not take into account risk externalities, interdependencies among threats, uncertainties that are correlated across targets, and attacker responses to alternative allocations of defensive resources. In at least some simple situations, allocations based on risk reduction scores and comparisons can inadvertently increase risks by providing intelligent attackers with valuable information, or they can fail to reduce risks as effectively as nonscoring, optimization-based approaches. These limitations of present scoring methods present exciting technical challenges and opportunities for risk analysts to develop improved methods for protecting facilities and infrastructure against terrorist threats.     

Could Removing Arsenic from Tobacco Smoke Significantly Reduce Smoker Risks of Lung Cancer?

If a specific biological mechanism could be determined by which a carcinogen increases lung cancer risk, how might this knowledge be used to improve risk assessment? To explore this issue, we assume (perhaps incorrectly) that arsenic in cigarette smoke increases lung cancer risk by hypermethylating the promoter region of gene p16INK4a, leading to a more rapid entry of altered (initiated) cells into a clonal expansion phase. The potential impact on lung cancer of removing arsenic is then quantified using a three‐stage version of a multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model. This refines the usual two‐stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis by resolving its intermediate or “initiated” cell compartment into two subcompartments, representing experimentally observed “patch” and “field” cells. This refinement allows p16 methylation effects to be represented as speeding transitions of cells from the patch state to the clonally expanding field state. Given these assumptions, removing arsenic might greatly reduce the number of nonsmall cell lung cancer cells (NSCLCs) produced in smokers, by up to two‐thirds, depending on the fraction (between 0 and 1) of the smoking‐induced increase in the patch‐to‐field transition rate prevented if arsenic were removed. At present, this fraction is unknown (and could be as low as zero), but the possibility that it could be high (close to 1) cannot be ruled out without further data.     

The International Adoption Experience: Do They Live Happily Ever After?

This study presents the perspective of parents who adopted children internationally and their now adult adopted children regarding the impact of international adoption on their lives. Areas explored include adaptation of the child and family, challenges experienced along the way, influence on various aspects of their lives, parent-child relationship, rewards and regrets associated with the adoption experience, recommendations for those considering international adoptions, and an adjective that would describe their journey. The outcome illuminates the success of international adoptions and the life-changing bond that is formed when parents and children transcend all boundaries to form a family to call their own.     

Urban forest cover of the Chicago region and its relation to household density and income

Urban forests and herbaceous open space play a vital role in the environmental and aesthetic health of cities, yet they are rarely identified in land-use inventories of urban areas. To provide information on urban forests and other vegetative land cover in Illinois cities, Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data from June 27, 1988, were classified for the Chicago metropolitan region (9,717 km²). Ten land-cover classes were identified, including two types of forestland (occupying 5.8% of the total area), residential land with trees (14.6%) or without trees (7.8%), cropland (37.5%), two types of grassland (7.7%), urban with impervious surfaces (23.1%), water (1.6%), and miscellaneous vegetation (2.1%). Correlation analyses indicated that household income and household density are strongly related to land covers in the region, particularly those with tree cover and urbanized land. Population changes for 1980–1985 and 1985–2010 (projected) show a pattern of increasing density in the urbanized zone concurrent with continued urban sprawl, primarily into current cropland.     

Social theory and the de-escalation of international conflict*

Are we like the mothers and fathers at Jonestown, with the cyanide in place, rehearsing for suicide-murder? Daniel Ellsberg (1981) observes that the marchers protesting nuclear weapons are doing what the mothers and fathers in Jonestown waited too long to say ‘No! Not our children! This is craziness; we won't be part of it.’ He writes that ‘It is none too soon to be saying this to the President/Prime Minister/Chairman Jim Jones's of the world; nor is it, yet, too late.’ How did we get into a place that even resembles Jonestown: And more importantly, how do we get out of it? Social theory should help provide answers to such questions, but does not obviously do so. In the first part of this paper I discuss an emerging theoretical paradigm that has particular relevance for understanding how international conflicts increase and decrease in intensity. Then I apply that paradigm to instances of international conflict de-escalation, focusing on declines in tension and hostility between the Soviet and American governments and the Israeli and Egyptian governments. Finally, I will point to some implications of the discussion for social theory and for international policy.     

Global and multiple test procedures using ordered p-values—a review

This paper reviews global and multiple tests for the combination ofn hypotheses using the orderedp-values of then individual tests. In 1987, Röhmel and Streitberg presented a general method to construct global level α tests based on orderedp-values when there exists no prior knowledge regarding the joint distribution of the corresponding test statistics. In the case of independent test statistics, construction of global tests is available by means of recursive formulae presented by Bicher (1989), Kornatz (1994) and Finner and Roters (1994). Multiple test procedures can be developed by applying the closed test principle using these global tests as building blocks. Liu (1996) proposed representing closed tests by means of “critical matrices” which contain the critical values of the global tests. Within the framework of these theoretical concepts, well-known global tests and multiple test procedures are classified and the relationships between the different tests are characterised.