Social theory and the de-escalation of international conflict*

Are we like the mothers and fathers at Jonestown, with the cyanide in place, rehearsing for suicide-murder? Daniel Ellsberg (1981) observes that the marchers protesting nuclear weapons are doing what the mothers and fathers in Jonestown waited too long to say ‘No! Not our children! This is craziness; we won't be part of it.’ He writes that ‘It is none too soon to be saying this to the President/Prime Minister/Chairman Jim Jones's of the world; nor is it, yet, too late.’ How did we get into a place that even resembles Jonestown: And more importantly, how do we get out of it? Social theory should help provide answers to such questions, but does not obviously do so. In the first part of this paper I discuss an emerging theoretical paradigm that has particular relevance for understanding how international conflicts increase and decrease in intensity. Then I apply that paradigm to instances of international conflict de-escalation, focusing on declines in tension and hostility between the Soviet and American governments and the Israeli and Egyptian governments. Finally, I will point to some implications of the discussion for social theory and for international policy.     

On the multivariate structure of wellbeing

A mapping sentence is provided for defining the universe of observations of wellbeing. According to this, assessment of wellbeing is attitudinal. Data from several studies verify that the First Law of Attitude holds for wellbeing. These data also show the structure of the interrelationships among the variables to be that of intermeshing cylindrexes, in an SSA space of four dimensions. Areas of life play the role of polarizing facets, while self-versus-community and situation-versus-treatment serve as axial facets. Modulating facets include primary-to-secondary interaction, and generality-to-specificity.     

A Comparative Analysis of Propositions Describing Social Movement Organizations*

Natural history, observational, and interview data from a study of two anti-pornography crusades and the social movement organizations which created and directed them are used to assess nine propositions formulated by Zald and Ash (1966) concerning the structure and dynamics of social movement organizations. The Zald-Ash propositions were formulated from the literature on national, established social movement organizations. This paper explores the applicability of the propositions to those organizations which are small and emerging. The propositions are generally supported. Discrepancies are accounted for by the significant influence of leadership orientation, goal specificity, and incentive structure in determining other structural and dynamic characteristics of small or emerging social movement organizations.     

Clarifying Types of Uncertainty: When Are Models Accurate,and Uncertainties Small?

Professor Aven has recently noted the importance of clarifying the meaning of terms such as "scientific uncertainty" for use in risk management and policy decisions, such as when to trigger application of the precautionary principle. This comment examines some fundamental conceptual challenges for efforts to define "accurate" models and "small" input uncertainties by showing that increasing uncertainty in model inputs may reduce uncertainty in model outputs; that even correct models with "small" input uncertainties need not yield accurate or useful predictions for quantities of interest in risk management (such as the duration of an epidemic); and that accurate predictive models need not be accurate causal models.     

Why a time effect often has a limited impact on capture‐recapture estimates in closed populations

The author is concerned with log‐linear estimators of the size N of a population in a capture‐recapture experiment featuring heterogeneity in the individual capture probabilities and a time effect. He also considers models where the first capture influences the probability of subsequent captures. He derives several results from a new inequality associated with a dispersive ordering for discrete random variables. He shows that in a log‐linear model with inter‐individual heterogeneity, the estimator N is an increasing function of the heterogeneity parameter. He also shows that the inclusion of a time effect in the capture probabilities decreases N in models without heterogeneity. He further argues that a model featuring heterogeneity can accommodate a time effect through a small change in the heterogeneity parameter. He demonstrates these results using an inequality for the estimators of the heterogeneity parameters and illustrates them in a Monte Carlo experiment     

Partial order analysis of crime indicators

A frequent variety of typological system is that which results when a given population is classified simultaneously by several social indicators. When the categories of each indicator are ordered, and in a sense common to all the indicators, a partial order is automatically defined for the system. The empirical problem is to ascertain the dimensionality and the substantive meaning of the partly ordered system. This will be illustrated here by the case of the characterization of American cities by their crime rates, the data analysis employing the technique of Partial Order Structuple (Scalogram) Analysis.     

Speed Mentoring in Teaching and Learning: Young people with experience of the care system mentor social work students

The value of listening and talking to young people with experience of the care system has been recognised as a vital and positive contribution to social work students' learning. A model of co-production was used to develop a series of speed mentoring events whereby social work students placed in local authority children and family settings were mentored by young people with experience of the care system. This tentative review of this small-scale project shares the authors' critical reflections on the value and reliability of this model, for evaluating the outcomes of co-productive mentoring relationships between young people and social work students. The reversal of the power dynamic between student and service user contributed to the unsettling of assumptions about each other and empathy for each other's role. The student authors reflect on learning about the child's experience that has influenced their practice. The mentor authors welcomed the opportunity to participate in the development of ‘young people friendly’ social workers. Suggestions are made as to how this model could be developed to contribute to a more systematic approach to the role of service users in mentoring, advising and contributing to the supervision process of students and social workers.     

Rights for All: A Response to Blau

Most of the world's nations have revised their constitutions to protect the human rights of their citizens. Yet there has been no national discussion in this country to write human rights into our own constitution. Building on Blau's (2015) call to action, this work explores ways in which sociologists can align the principles of our profession to the advancement of human society and the protection of human rights.     

Providing mental health services to older people living in rural communities

Rural dwelling elders who experience mental health problems often have difficulty finding help since rural communities often lack adequate mental health service providers. This paper reports on the initial phase of a 5-year, interdisciplinary clinical research study that is testing the effectiveness of providing a home delivered, therapeutic psychosocial intervention, aimed at improving the emotional wellbeing and the quality of life of medically frail elders who live in rural communities. In the early phases of this study, the clinical research team encountered a number of interesting and often unanticipated challenges as it attempted to recruit study participants and provide services to them. In this article, we examine these challenges and share what we have learned so far about providing mental health services to elderly persons living in rural environments.