A new approach to investigating spatial variations of disease

Summary.  For rare diseases the observed disease count may exhibit extra Poisson variability, particularly in areas with low or sparse populations. Hence the variance of the estimates of disease risk, the standardized mortality ratios, may be highly unstable. This overdispersion must be taken into account otherwise subsequent maps based on standardized mortality ratios will be misleading and, rather than displaying the true spatial pattern of disease risk, the most extreme values will be highlighted. Neighbouring areas tend to exhibit spatial correlation as they may share more similarities than non-neighbouring areas. The need to address overdispersion and spatial correlation has led to the proposal of Bayesian approaches for smoothing estimates of disease risk. We propose a new model for investigating the spatial variation of disease risks in conjunction with an alternative specification for estimates of disease risk in geographical areas—the multivariate Poisson–gamma model. The main advantages of this new model lie in its simplicity and ability to account naturally for overdispersion and spatial auto-correlation. Exact expressions for important quantities such as expectations, variances and covariances can be easily derived.     

Moderator Assistant: A Natural Language Generation-Based Intervention to Support Mental Health via Social Media

As online mental health support groups become increasingly popular, they require more support from volunteers and trained moderators who help their users through “interventions” (i.e., responding to questions and providing support). We present a system that supports such human interventions using Natural Language Generation (NLG) techniques. The system generates draft responses aimed at reducing moderators’ workload, and improving their efficacy. NLG and human interventions were compared through the ratings of 35 psychology interns. The NLG-based system was capable of generating messages that are grammatically correct with clear language. The system needs improvement, however, moderators can already use it as draft responses.     

Incorporation of historical controls using semiparametric mixed models

The analysis of animal carcinogenicity data is complicated by various statistical issues. A topic of recent debate is how to control for the effect of the animal's body weight on the outcome of interest, the onset of tumours. We propose a method which incorporates historical information from the control animals in previously conducted experiments. We allow non-linearity in the effects of body weight by modelling the relationship nonparametrically through a penalized spline. A simple extension of the penalized spline model allows the relationship between weight and the onset of tumour to vary from one experiment to another.     

Who's calling the shots? Decision-makers and the adoption of effective school-based substance use prevention curricula

This study investigates the relative roles of school district and school-level decision-makers in the implementation of effective substance use prevention curricula. Drawing on a "Site-Based Management" approach to effective decision-making, we hypothesized that schools whose personnel played active decision-making roles would be more likely to implement effective curricula than those in which decision-making was the prerogative of school district personnel. Study data comprised 1369 questionnaires completed by a representative national sample of both district-level prevention coordinators and middle school-based lead prevention teachers. From the perspective of the lead prevention teachers, the school district-level prevention coordinator was more influential than school staff in selecting effective prevention curricula. However, we did find some support for our hypothesis from our district-level informants, who indicated that community groups and advisory committees also play a modest role in the selection of such curricula.     

A look at an interactive classroom-based drug abuse prevention program: interactive contents and suggestions for research

Interactivity has been shown to be a critical element of effective drug abuse prevention programs. This study examined the contents of Project Towards No Drug Abuse, a program that has revealed strong effects only when delivered in a highly interactive version. Types of teacher and student interactive messages were identified. It is speculated that explicit action on the part of the teacher to have students make statements and ask questions of one another may be the essence of effective drug education program delivery. Suggestions for future research on interactivity were made.     

‘The Realm of Maiden Beauty’: Spectres of Slavery,Rebellion, and Creolisation in the Landscape of Cable’s Louisiana

Using a creative interdisciplinary method of enquiry, this article seeks to exorcise the spectres of revolutionary creolisation embedded in George Washington Cable’s 1880 novel The Grandissimes. It probes, in particular, the secreted traces of the Creole diaspora triggered by the Haitian Revolution of 1791–1804, and attempts to peel back the manifold layers of ideological occlusion embedded in the (ostensibly white, Anglo-American) narrative frame of Cable’s omniscient narrator and his protagonist Joseph Frowenfeld, which suppress the connections between inter-American identities across diverse, revolutionary, creolistic worlds in Louisiana and the Gulf South. Unlike other studies examining traces of the Haitian Revolution in The Grandissimes, which tend to focus on the parallels between fictional and historical figures in Cable’s southern romance, this article dissects the subtle allusions to the revolution and the attendant diaspora found in the plantation infrastructures and the urban landscape of Cable’s Louisiana. In so doing, it demonstrates how Saint-Domingan migrants affirmed and reinvigorated the cultural landscape of the ‘Creole’ South and ‘circumvented’ the ideological spread of ‘Americanness’ at the time of the Louisiana Purchase, and during successive moments thereafter.     

Development and Assessment of Measures of Adolescents' Attitudes about Sexual Relationship Rights

Objective: Develop and validate measures of adolescents' attitudes about sexual relationship rights. Methods: Items were completed by students in a large U.S. city (N = 655). The authors conducted an exploratory factor analysis, evaluated internal consistency, and assessed construct validity, including ability to predict sexual behavior at 1-year follow-up. Results: Factor analysis identified 2 distinct factors, comprising attitudes about rights to refuse unwanted sexual activity (5 items) and express sexual engagement needs (5 items) in a sexual relationship. The measures showed sound evidence of reliability and construct validity. Conclusions: The psychometric evidence supports the use of these measures in adolescent sexual health research.     

The fiscal impact of immigration to welfare states of the Scandinavian type

In this paper, we examine the potential of immigration to strengthen fiscal sustainability, which is under pressure by an ageing population in many European countries. We look at a particularly challenging case, namely that of Denmark, which has extensive tax-financed welfare programmes that provide a high social safety net. The analysis is based on a forecast of the entire Danish economy made using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. We present life cycle estimates of the potential fiscal impact of immigration considering the cost of immigration on the margin as well as on average. The main conclusion is that immigrants from Western countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from non-Western countries have a large negative one, which is also the case when considering only non-refugee immigrants. The negative effect is caused by both a weak labour market performance and early retirement in combination with the universal Danish welfare schemes.