跳出地产看地产——试论滨海新区房地产的宏观走势

滨海新区的开发开放正式纳入国家战略已有一年,在此前后,滨海新区的房地产开发热已持续近两年.静观这两年的事态变化,开发者已由最初的喧嚣、癫狂而趋于理性,置业者和投资者浮躁的功利心态也逐步冷却.显然,坊间追捧和媒体热炒的房地产开发"盛世"并未如期而至;一些先行者创造的个案营销神话,似乎也未再现,惟一的奇迹,就是滨海的房价一再拉高,已经与中心城区比肩.滨海新区的房地产到底出现了什么问题?原因何在?需要有一个客观的诊断和解答.     

Assessing the effects of land use and land cover patterns on thermal conditions using landscape metrics in city of Indianapolis,United States

Direct applications of remote sensing thermal infrared (TIR) data in landscape ecological research are rare due to limitations in the sensors, calibration, and difficulty in interpretation. Currently there is a general lack of methodology for examining the relationship between land surface temperatures (LST) derived from TIR data and landscape patterns extracted from optical sensors. A separation of landscapes into values directly related to their scale and signature is a key step. In this study, a Landsat ETM+ image of Indianapolis, Unites States, acquired on June 22, 2000, was spectrally unmixed (using spectral mixture analysis, SMA) into fraction endmembers of green vegetation, soil, high albedo, and low albedo. Impervious surface was then computed from the high and low albedo images. A hybrid classification procedure was developed to classify the fraction images into seven land use and land cover (LULC) classes. Using the fractional images, the landscape composition and pattern were examined. Next, pixel-based LST measurements were correlated with the landscape fractional components to investigate LULC based relationships between LST and impervious surface and green vegetation fractions. An examination of the relationship between the LULC and LST maps with landscape metrics was finally conducted to deepen understanding of their interactions. Results indicate that SMA-derived fraction images were effective for quantifying the urban morphology and for providing reliable measurements of biophysical variables. LST was found to be positively correlated with impervious surface fraction but negatively correlated with green vegetation fraction. Each temperature zone was associated with a dominant LULC category. Further research should be directed to the theoretical and applied implications of describing such relationships between LULC patterns and urban thermal conditions.

制度变迁背景下的社区权力与秩序——基于广州市一个城中村的研究

渐进的市场化和突发的制度变迁导致了城中村的权力格局和社区秩序发生了种种变化,居委会—村公司构成的权力结构及其互动关系目前已经成为城中村特有的"双轨制"权力模式,本文以广州市J社区为例深入分析这种双轨制的内在机制,认为社区内存在两种基于资源依赖基础上的循环链,由此带来了社区秩序的双重规则。     

袁宏道净土思想略论

明代著名辅教居士袁宏道,早年矢志参禅,洞有所入.然亦颇沾"狂禅"习气,一悟便休,不究如来之了义、不知达摩之玄机,空腹高心,卑视净土法门,甚至于呵佛骂祖、斥教遮相.所幸生死心切,故能触机猛省,毅然摒弃偏空之见,悟修并重,乘戒兼行,豁悟达摩祖师说罪福之皆虚与永明延寿和尚言万善之总是,均为祛迷拯溺之论,实无彼此抵牾之处.于是至诚归心净土,借念佛之警切提醒参禅之深心,复藉参门之洞彻坚固净土之信行.嗣后,为广利蹇滞浊界之群生,特别是为指示深陷宗教歧路和禅净宿疑而不能自拔之士,袁宏道更深入普贤愿海,博综经论,撰成《西方合论》十卷,力主净土诸经与《大方广佛华严经》、《法华经》的不分优劣,并融贯教理、广破邪疑,直开正信、径指趣归.     

Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

解苦以求安宁：韧性视角下老年人的临终生命质量探究

随着人口死亡模式的转变与老龄化进程的加快,老年人的临终生命质量已成为大众关注的社会问题。本研究参考“身心灵平衡”韧性整合模型构建分析框架,运用半结构式访谈法与实物分析法,深入探索影响老年人临终生命质量的风险性与保护性因素及其作用路径。研究指出,身体的衰弱与疾痛和心理的情绪困扰是老年临终生命质量的风险性因素,它们均会损害老年人原有的平衡状态,且身心二者的负面影响存在相互强化的作用;而内在的灵性能力和外在的社会支持作为保护性因素,能够帮助老年人增强死亡准备、重构生命状态。基于上述结论,研究从身心社灵四个维度重点讨论了社会工作介入老年安宁疗护的发展方向。     

完善我国个人所得税制的思考

个人所得税是调节国家与个人利益分配关系的重要杠杆,随着我国经济的快速发展、居民收入水平的大幅提高,个人所得税将是一项最有前途、最有发展潜力的税种。但我国个人所得税政策不尽人意,执行起来既失公平,又欠效率。文章分析了我国个人所得税制存在的问题,提出了相应的对策。     

Opting out of workers’ compensation: Non-subscription in Texas and its effects

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Texas is the only state that does not mandate that employers carry workers’ compensation (WC) insurance coverage. In place of traditional WC, companies can...     

Transparency and Resource Allocation of Grassroots Nonprofits in China

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Organizational transparency has become a prominent concern for the nonprofit sector as it expands globally. Transparency...     

ON EQUILIBRIUM PLAYER ORDERING IN DYNAMIC TEAM CONTESTS

We study equilibrium player ordering in a dynamic all-pay contest between two teams. The contest lasts two periods, and each team consists of two players who perform in different periods on behalf of their teams. The team with the higher aggregate output wins the prize, which is a public good to its players. Each team has one stronger player and one weaker player, and the two teams can differ in their values of the prize. The teams maximize their winning odds by strategically assigning their players to different periods. We find that when the intrateam heterogeneity in player ability is not excessive, the teams would allocate their stronger players to the late positions as the “anchormen.” When both the intrateam ability gap and interteam heterogeneity in teams' values become excessively large, the team with high value always places its stronger player in the early position, who will place a large bid to preempt late competition. (JEL C7, D7, D8)