Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market

We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974 Maddala , G. , Nelson , F. ( 1974 ). Maximum likelihood methods for models of markets in disequilibrium . Econometrica 42 ( 6 ): 1013 – 1030 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980 Ginsburgh , V. , Tishler , A. , Zang , I. ( 1980 ). Alternative estimation methods for two regime models . European Economic Review 13 : 207 – 228 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002 Spiegelhalter , D. J. , Best , N. G. , Carlin , B. P. , Van Der Linde , A. ( 2002 ). Bayesian measures of complexity and fit . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B 64 : 583 – 639 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]).     

Design of computer experiments: space filling and beyond

When setting up a computer experiment, it has become a standard practice to select the inputs spread out uniformly across the available space. These so-called space-filling designs are now ubiquitous in corresponding publications and conferences. The statistical folklore is that such designs have superior properties when it comes to prediction and estimation of emulator functions. In this paper we want to review the circumstances under which this superiority holds, provide some new arguments and clarify the motives to go beyond space-filling. An overview over the state of the art of space-filling is introducing and complementing these results.     

Approximation of IMSE-optimal Designs via Quadrature Rules and Spectral Decomposition

We address the problem of computing integrated mean-squared error (IMSE) optimal designs for interpolation of random fields with known mean and covariance. We assume that the mean squared error is integrated through a discrete measure and restrict the design space to its support. We show that the IMSE and its approximation by spectral truncation can be easily evaluated, which makes their global minimization affordable. Numerical experiments are carried out that illustrate the effectiveness of the approach.     

The uniform convergence of the nadaraya-watson regression function estimate

If (X₁,Y₁), …, (X_n,Y_n) is a sequence of independent identically distributed R_d × R-valued random vectors then Nadaraya (1964) and Watson (1964) proposed to estimate the regression function m(x) = ? {Y₁|X₁ = x{ by where K is a known density and {h_n} is a sequence of positive numbers satisfying certain properties. In this paper a variety of conditions are given for the strong convergence to 0 of ess_Xsup|m_n (X)-m(X)| (here X is independent of the data and distributed as X₁). The theorems are valid for all distributions of X₁ and for all sequences {h_n} satisfying h_n → 0 and nh/log n→0.     

Experiencing Loneliness in Adolescence: A Matter of Individual Characteristics,Negative Peer Experiences,or Both?

The present study builds on the child‐by‐environment model and examines the joint contribution of intra‐individual characteristics (i.e., self‐esteem and shyness) and peer experiences (i.e., social acceptance, victimization, friendship quantity, and friendship quality) in the association with loneliness. A total of 884 adolescents (M_age = 15.80; 68 percent female) participated in this multi‐informant study. Results indicated that, in addition to self‐esteem and shyness, being poorly accepted by peers, being victimized, lacking friends, and experiencing poor‐quality friendships each contributed independently to the experience of loneliness. Further, friendship quantity and quality mediated the relation between the two intra‐individual characteristics and loneliness. Finally, a significant interaction was found between self‐esteem and social acceptance in predicting loneliness. The present study highlights the importance of investigating the joint effects of inter‐individual experiences and intra‐individual characteristics in examining loneliness. Suggestions to elaborate the child‐by‐environment model in loneliness research are discussed, and clinical implications are outlined.     

Introduction: prendre au serieux la culture dans les relations internationales

Culture and international relations are related in all circumstances. On the one hand, if one refers to the discipline of International Relations, culture is an important parameter that influences knowledge production and paradigmatic elaboration. The discipline of IR is therefore culturally situated. On the other hand, when one is dealing with the phenomenon of international relations, it appears as if all social relations, international relations are orientated by the ways of thinking, beliefs and representations of its actors. At the same time, international relations create opportunities for cultural invention in order to regulate the interaction among actors.     

Poverty, income distribution and CGE micro-simulation modeling: Does the functional form of distribution matter?

This paper explores income distribution modeling approaches for poverty analysis in a CGE micro-simulation context. Income distribution functional forms such as the lognormal, Pareto, beta distribution and empirical methods are currently used in CGE models in parallel with the estimation of FGT poverty indices. The particular methods or functional forms used in this context are not always clearly defined and justified. In this paper, we investigate and provide better criteria for selecting a functional distribution for poverty analysis. To achieve this, we apply parametric estimation to seven functional forms and compare the results to a purely “empirical” method. The results showed that no single form is more appropriate in all instances or for all household subgroups. The choice of a modeling approach should be motivated by a search for best fit and should be based on appropriate statistical tests. Selecting inappropriate distributional forms can lead to biased results in terms of poverty analysis. Introducing functional forms in the empirical approach can also provide greater confidence in the results obtained.

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An erratum to this article can be found at     

Photography and the imagined body

Family websites represent one of the more interesting areas of research into cultural change and reproduction. They also compellingly demonstrate the complex role of technology in both cultural processes. As the latest example of the long‐established practice of family photography, these hybrid multimedia products have followed the path of the analogue photograph, framed and displayed in the home, kept in wallets or presented as series of pictures in photo albums, with a marked move to the digital world and a much less noticed shift to the sophisticated multimedia context of the Web. This article examines how this fairly recent shift from private photography to the semi‐public space of the Internet, which is unfolding in dialogue with technology, has reinforced, expanded or radically changed the nature of family communications and the very significant social and cultural functions this highly codified practice has fulfilled from the onset. From an exploratory research study into online family websites, I discuss examples, which illustrate the similarities and changes taking place, the possible cultural‐propagandistic and emancipatory effects, and the wealth of cultural information that can be decoded. I further discuss the methodological aspects and implications of decoding these new and very vivid exponents of culture.