Voting in professional associations: The case of the American sociological association revisited

Who votes in ASA elections? This article examines data on voter turnout from two recent presidential contests of the American Sociological Association in an analysis of the determinants of election participation. Extending the 1981 Ridgeway and Moore study of voting dynamics in the ASA, we hypothesize that intraorganizational networks and particular demongraphic characteristics link ASA members to the discipline in a manner analogous to the way such factors operate in the national electorate. On the basis of data compiled from 1985 and 1986 ASA election returns, we find that network factors are the most salient determinants of voting behavior. We conclude that those organizational ties that effectively link members, however directly or indirectly, to the larger Association are the most predictive of propensity to vote.     

Flexible models for non-equidispersed count data: comparative performance of parametric models to deal with underdispersion

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - Count data as response variables are commonly modeled using Poisson regression models, which require equidispersion, i.e., equal mean and variance. However,...     

Dynamic evolution of alliance portfolios

This research advances in the conceptualization and the operationalization of the factors or microdynamics that determine the choice of partners. Most of the literature in this area of research has centered on the individual alliance without taking into account the set of alliances that a firm makes. This research applies a holistic approach, analyzing the set of alliances as a whole and points to the factors related to alliance portfolios that affect the choice of partners. The authors propose a longitudinal model that allows us to analyze the evolution of interorganizational networks. A Simulation Investigation for Empirical Network Analysis (SIENA) has been applied to a sample of 229 firms, analyzing 10,556 strategic alliances established between them over a 12 year period. The results show that certain factors over which managers exercise a degree of control (deliberate endogenous microdynamics) exert significant influences on the choice of partners by the focal actor and thereby on the dynamic configuration of alliance portfolios.     

Macroeconomic conditions, institutional factors and demographic structure: What causes welfare caseloads?

Some of the possible determinants of changes observed in welfare caseloads are analysed in this study. The paper attempts to explain variations in welfare caseloads on the basis of four different factors: macroeconomic conditions, interactions with other income maintenance programmes, changes in the programme's parameters and changes in the demographic structure. Different models are tested by applying time series techniques. The data employed are of an administrative nature and cover the whole period that the Madrid programme has been in operation. The results show that the effects of both unemployment and institutional variables are strong and significant. Macroeconomic effects on caseloads could be offset or reinforced by changes in unemployment protection and reforms of the programme's parameters. The significant effects found for the share of lone-parent applicants also show that demographic shifts could shape the trends of welfare rolls regardless of the changes in unemployment or the implementation of institutional reforms. The authors would like to thank Juan Gabriel Rodríguez, Minoru Kunizaki, Miguel Angel Malo and three anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions. Financial and technical support from the Spanish Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Inter-ministerial Commission on Science and Technology (SEC 2001-0746) and the Social Services Department of the Madrid Government is also gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Christian Dustmann.     

Violence Exposure and Drug Use in Central American Youth: Family Cohesion and Parental Monitoring as Protective Factors

Associations between witnessing serious violence and drug use, and the protective influences of family cohesion and parental monitoring, were investigated among 9,840 adolescents (50.5% female, M age=15.29 years, SD=1.76) living in Panama and Costa Rica. After accounting for demographics and parental and sibling substance use, witnessing serious violence was associated with greater drunkenness, tobacco use, number of illicit drugs used, and problems with drugs and alcohol. In every analysis, exposure to violence was associated with more drug use, while family cohesion and parental monitoring attenuated risk. Further, family cohesion and parental monitoring exerted a protective‐stabilizing effect on number of illicit drugs used and on problems with drugs and alcohol. There were few interactions with age. Implications for prevention are discussed.     

Models of Neurotoxicity: Extrapolation of Benchmark Doses in Vitro

In risk assessment, no observed exposure level (NOAEL) and benchmark dose (BMD) are usually derived either from epidemiological studies in humans or from animal experiments. In many in vitro studies, concentration-effect/response curves have been analyzed using different mathematical models finalized to the identification of EC50. In the present article, we propose a model to fit dose-response curves in vitro. The BMD approach has been used to compare the cell viability (MIT assay) of different rat (C6 and PC12, glial and neuronal, respectively) and human cell lines (D384 and SK-N-MC, glial and neuronal, respectively) after 24-hour exposure to the following neurotoxic substances: manganese chloride (MnCl2), methyl-mercury (Me-Hg), and the enantiomers of styrene oxide (SO). For all rat and human cell lines, the potency of the examined compounds was: MnCl2 < S-SO < R-SO < Me-Hg. A preliminary comparison with in vivo toxicity data for these substances gave rise to consistent results. Whereas a reasonable agreement between in vitro and in vivo data has been found for Mn and styrene oxide, a wide scatter of LOAEL has been reported for Me-Hg and these appear to be either much higher or lower than the BMD for the MIT assay we observed in vitro.     

The Origin,Development, and Contemporary Status of Critical Theory*

This paper describes the nature of critical theory, its historical development, its connections to sociology and Marxism, and the central debates over its core ideas.     

Public Life and Globalization as Cultural Vision*

Dans cette étude, nous examinons les répercussions sociales de la mondialisation dans une perspective culturelle. Notre analyse porte sur le conflit qui existe entre le discours sur la mondialisation et les priorités locales, entre les droits de l'individu et les engagements des pouvoirs publics ainsi que sur la difficulté de trouver de nouveaux points d'ancrage de l'identité culturelle dans un contexte où les frontières territoriales entre les États s'effacent et où les idées de progres, de modernité et d'évolution se sont érodées. Ces traits accompagnent la transformation amorcée dans le cadre des relations complexes et hégémoniques qui caractérisent aujourd'hui le système mondial. Ce conflit et ces problèmes demeurent un axe fondamental du débat politique. Nous suggérons que les différentes formes de participation se traduisent de diverses façons dans le champ de l'expression politique et dans Interprétation des exigences sociales et des droits, et influent sur la vie publique à la veille du XXI^esiécle. This article explores the social implications of globalization as cultural vision. Discussion bears upon the tension between the discourse of globality and local priorities, of individual rights and public commitments, and upon the problems of finding new ways for grounding identities as territorial state boundaries are weakened and the ideas of progress, modernity and evolutionary perspectives are eroded as part of a process of change initiated in the developed and hegemonic settings of the world system. It is claimed that these tensions and problems remain a crucial axis of political debate. It is suggested that different patterns of participation meld in manifold ways into recreated forms of political will and varied interpretations of social claims on and rights to affect the shaping of public life at the turn of the century.     

Tree-structured subgroup analysis for censored survival data: Validation of computationally inexpensive model selection criteria

The performance of computationally inexpensive model selection criteria in the context of tree-structured subgroup analysis is investigated. It is shown through simulation that no single model selection criterion exhibits a uniformly superior performance over a wide range of scenarios. Therefore, a two-stage approach for model selection is proposed and shown to perform satisfactorily. Applied example of subgroup analysis is presented. Problems associated with tree-structured subgroup analysis are discussed and practical solutions are suggested.     

A Semi-parametric Bayesian Analysis of Survival Data Based on Lévy-driven Processes

In the presence of covariate information, the proportional hazards model is one of the most popular models. In this paper, in a Bayesian nonparametric framework, we use a Markov (Lévy-driven) process to model the baseline hazard rate. Previous Bayesian nonparametric models have been based on neutral to the right processes, which have a number of drawbacks, such as discreteness of the cumulative hazard function. We allow the covariates to be time dependent functions and develop a full posterior analysis via substitution sampling. A detailed illustration is presented.