A Systems Approach to Investigating Child Abuse Deaths

A new systemic approach to investigating child abuse deathsis proposed, drawing on the lessons learned in engineering.Investigations have traditionally taken the approach of concludingonce faults in professional practice are identified. Solutionstake the form of trying to control erratic practitioners: psychologicalpressure to achieve higher standards, increasing formalizationand guidelines to reduce the scope for individual fallibility,and stricter management surveillance. The inquiry into the deathof Victoria Climbie fits this model. However, thirty years ofsuch inquiries have not led to the expected improvement in professionalpractice. Indeed, the Climbie report describes several agenciesoperating at a very low level, and failing to implement themost basic elements of good practice. A similar history of failurein engineering has led to the development of a systems approach.Human error is taken as the starting point, not the conclusion,and the investigation tries to understand why the mistake wasmade, by studying interacting factors in the practitioners,the resources available and the organizational context. Theway this approach could be adopted in child protection workis outlined.     

The uncertainty of forecasting: models with structural change versus those without changing parameters

The Bayesian predictive density is found for future observations of the unknown dependent variables for a multivariate linear model with a single shift in the regression matrix.

A numerical example shows that it is dangerous to predict future observations with an unchanging parameter model when the appropriate model should include structural change.     

Bayesian forecasting with changing linear models

This investigation considers a general linear model which changes parameters exactly once during the observation period. Assuming all the parameters are unknown and a proper prior distribution, the Bayesian predictive distribution of the future observations is derived.

It is shown that the predictive distribution is a mixture of multivariate t distributions and that the mixing distribution is the marginal posterior mass function of the change point parameter.     

Housing strategies in an uncertain market

The slump in house prices in the early 1990s created a degree of uncertainty in the housing market which contrasts markedly with the optimism of the 1980s. In particular, the market downturn made it sharply apparent that there could be losers as well as winners in the unstable housing market. This study looks at a sample of owner occupiers drawn from Glasgow and Bristol in 1995. While still endorsing home ownership as the major housing option and as potentially enabling in housing and neighbourhood terms, a note of caution is recognisable. Aspirations to climb the housing ‘ladder’ are tempered by fear of overextending financially and by the broader uncertainties that people perceive to be endemic in the labour market and the housing market. Strategies reflect both diverse personal histories and the adoption of defensive or risk reduction options. For many respondents maintaining current housing standards is more important than market advancement.     

A comparison of bayes and maximum likelihood estimation of the intraclass correlation coefficient

Two methods of estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient (p) for the one-way random effects model were compared in several simulation experiments using balanced and unbalanced designs. Estimates based on a Bayes approach and a maximum likelihood approach were compared on the basis of their biases (differences between estimates and true values of p) and mean square errors (mean square errors of estimates of p) in each of the simulation experiments. The Bayes approach used the median of a conditional posterior density as its estimator.     

Independent dominating sets in triangle-free graphs

The independent domination number of a graph is the smallest cardinality of an independent set that dominates the graph. In this paper we consider the independent domination number of triangle-free graphs. We improve several of the known bounds as a function of the order and minimum degree, thereby answering conjectures of Haviland.     

A bayesian alternative to the analysis of matched categorical responces

This study investigates the Bayesian appeoach to the analysis of parired responess when the responses are categorical. Using resampling and analytical procedures, inferences for homogeneity and agreement are develped. The posterior analysis is based on the Dirichlet distribution from which repeated samples can be geneated with a random number generator. Resampling and analytical techniques are employed to make Bayesian inferences, and when it is not appropriate to use analytical procedures, resampling techniques are easily implemented. Bayesian methodoloogy is illustrated with several examples and the results show that they are exacr-small sample procedures that can easily solve inference problems for matched designs.     

False Assumptions About the Determinants of Mexican-American and Negro Economic Absorption

It generally is believed that with age and time in the urban industrial community, differences between rural-reared and urban-reared persons decline or disappear. This longitudinal study of 973 families (280 Mexican-Americans, 280 Negroes, and 413 Anglos) in Racine, Wisconsin, finds little significant change (1960–1971) in the relative position of Mexican-Americans and Negroes on occupational level, income, and level of living, even though controls for age, education, urban work experience, time in the community, and other pertinent variables are introduced. These findings suggest that the community is organized in such a way as to facilitate better the economic absorption of its Anglo inmigrants than Negroes from the South or Mexican-Americans from Southwest, in spite of the fact that numerous programs were introduced in the United States during the 1960s, with the purpose of aiding the less fortunate in our society. Race/ethnicity remains the most powerful determinant of a family's position in the community.     

Religious intermarriage in Canada, 1974-1982

"This paper reviews recent literature, with particular reference to Canada, on religious intermarriage. The importance of intramarriage in the cross-generation maintenance of subcultural values is emphasized. Recent trends in religious outmarriage and the major explanations and correlates of these trends are considered. Recent data published by Statistics Canada is examined for the nine year period between 1974-1982."