Regression Modelling of Disease Risk in Relation to Point Sources

We describe a class of models for the investigation of possible raised risk of disease around putative sources of environmental pollution. An adaptation of the point process method suggested by Diggle and Rowlingson is presented, allowing the use of routinely available aggregated data and incorporating the more general distance–risk model suggested by Elliott and co-workers. An application to data on cancers of the stomach around municipal solid waste incinerators is presented.     

Forecasting mortality rates via density ratio modeling

The authors propose a semiparametric approach to modeling and forecasting age‐specific mortality in the United States. Their method is based on an extension of a class of semiparametric models to time series. It combines information from several time series and estimates the predictive distribution conditional on past data. The conditional expectation, which is the most commonly used predictor in practice, is the first moment of this distribution. The authors compare their method to that of Lee and Carter.     

CRIMINALS AS HEROES: LINKING SYMBOL TO STRUCTURE

This article examines the phenomenon of the heroic criminal and describes the structural preconditions necessary for his appearance. The author argues that these lawbreakers are best understood as cultural products that represent a concept of extra-legal justice. Their criminality, at least initially, is imputed with political meaning. Such symbols emerge when the rational, formal, bureaucratic justice of the state fails to reflect popular conceptions of justice. These symbolic figures are endemic in any culturally complex state society, although usually their appeal is to a small and relatively powerless public. But at times when the perception of law as unjust is widespread, the heroic criminal may emerge as a national figure of epic proportions. At such times a virtual epidemic of such figures may appear since entrepreneurs, motivated by either politics or profit, “market” such symbols to a receptive public. Using comparative analysis, the author presents briefcase studies of Jesse James, William Bonney (Billy the Kid), John Dillinger, and Charles Arthur (Pretty Boy) Floyd to demonstrate how they became legendary figures. The author then describes more contemporary symbols of extra-legal justice and the structural factors that inspired their heroic image.     

Estimating Probabilities Relevant to Calculating Relative Risk-Corrected Returns of Alternative Portfolios

In making all-or-none choices between alternative securities, Samuelson (1997b) suggested that investors of different risk-aversion should calculate from past samples of those securities their relevant Harmonic Means, or Geometric means, or other associative means representative of their respective degrees of relative-risk-aversion. Here it is shown how this learning procedure can be improved upon when you have prior knowledge that the securities have log-Normal distributions. Classical estimation theory, concerning consistent, efficient, and sufficient statistics, is shown to have a cash value by means of the calculable measure of (ex ante) “risk-corrected certainty equivalents.” Needed qualifications and testings are also presented.     

PROBLEMS WITH BINOMIAL TWO-SIDED TESTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Confidence intervals for parameters of distributions with discrete sample spaces will be less conservative (i.e. have smaller coverage probabilities that are closer to the nominal level) when defined by inverting a test that does not require equal probability in each tail. However, the P‐value obtained from such tests can exhibit undesirable properties, which in turn result in undesirable properties in the associated confidence intervals. We illustrate these difficulties using P‐values for binomial proportions and the difference between binomial proportions.     

The Economic Partnership Agreements: Rationale,Misperceptions and Non‐trade Aspects

The European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries entered a new era in 2008. The Cotonou trade regime and the WTO waiver legitimising it have expired, and the long anticipated, and much debated, move to Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) has begun. This article explains the background and analyses the ‘alternatives’ to EPAs, in order to tackle common misperceptions. Moving on from what has been the focus of debates, namely, the reciprocal liberalisation required under WTO rules, it sheds some light on the non‐goods trade aspects of EPAs which, while integral to economic policy, are inherently hard to quantify and often skimmed over in existing studies or addressed in ideological terms.