A Bayesian-loss function-based method in assessing loss caused by ship-source oil spills in the arctic area

It is difficult to assess the risk of ship-source oil spills in Arctic waters for insurance purposes due to many unknowns and the lack of reliable data. However, maritime activities in the Arctic area continue to grow, indicating the urgent needs for the development of innovative methods to estimate loss from potential ship-source oil spills in the Arctic area. To fill this gap, we develop a hybrid Bayesian-loss function-based method to assess ship-source oil spill-related loss and implement an illustrative test on Baffin Island, Nunavut in Canada. The results confirm that our method can accurately assess loss and, subsequently, develop reliable insurance premiums for shipping activities in the Arctic area. This enables governmental and nongovernmental organizations alike to use the method as a reliable loss estimation mechanism for ship-source oil spills. Also, it is a valuable tool in designing measures for safer and more resilient Arctic shipping.     

Quantifying the costs of drought: new evidence from life satisfaction data

We estimate the cost of droughts by matching rainfall data with individual life satisfaction. Our context is Australia over the period 2001 to 2004, which included a particularly severe drought. Using fixed-effect models, we find that a drought in spring has a detrimental effect on life satisfaction equivalent to an annual reduction in income of A$18,000. This effect, however, is only found for individuals living in rural areas. Using our estimates, we calculate that the predicted doubling of the frequency of spring droughts will lead to the equivalent loss in life satisfaction of just over 1% of GDP annually.

Exact and resampling probability values for the Piccarreta nominal–ordinal index of association

Exact, resampling, and Pearson type III permutation methods are provided to compute probability values for Piccarreta's nominal–ordinal index of association. The resampling permutation method provides good approximate probability values based on the proportion of resampled test statistic values equal to or greater than the observed test statistic value.     

Knowledge and Beliefs About Gambling in Australian Secondary School Students and their Implications for Education Strategies

This study investigated the nature of gambling-related knowledge and beliefs in a survey study of 2,669 students aged 13–17 years in South Australia. Students were classified as pathological gamblers, at risk, or not at risk based upon the DSM-IV-J, and their responses to questions relating to objective odds, probabilities, and common misperceptions were compared. The study confirmed previous studies which have shown that pathological gamblers are more susceptible to erroneous beliefs concerning randomness and chance, but do not differ in terms of their knowledge of objective odds. These findings were discussed in terms of Ladouceur’s notion of “cognitive switching” and the distinction drawn between “hot” and “cold” cognitions in clinical outcome studies. The implications for school-based education programs are examined with attention given to the potential value of role-playing and simulations in encouraging student reflection and self-awareness.     

Managerial audit and community mental health: a study of rationalising practices in Finnish psychiatric outpatient clinics

In many European welfare states the reform of mental health services has been accompanied by the implementation of new forms of governance, including the introduction of managerial audit systems. While such systems have been developed for ‘good causes’, such as quality assurance, financial management and monitoring staff performance, they may simultaneously produce diverse and contradictory effects on practice. The aim of this article is to examine the role of one managerial audit system, introduced in psychiatric outpatient clinics in central Finland, and assess its impact on practice. Reference is made to modernising mental health policy in the UK as that has producedsimilar practics outcomes. The research was an empirical study of practice using a mixed-method case study design involving documentary research and semi-structured interviews. Insights from Mitchell Dean's notion of governmentalisation of government were utilised in the analysis. It was found that, although the audit system primarily served administrative needs, it began to reshape practice by reinforcing certain modes of working and excluding others. The analysis of community mental health work in Finland, with similar trends in the UK, highlights the connection between documentation, resource allocation and managerial priorities that reinforce particular styles of practice. In community mental health services it would appear that the problems of professional practice have become the problems of administration.     

SUBSTANCE ABUSE AND SLOW-MOTION DISASTERS: The Case of Detroit

In this article, I focus on problem substance use as one outcome of an underlying, "slow-motion disaster" caused by the long-term collision between corrosive structural processes, counterproductive social policies, and vulnerable populations. Using the city of Detroit as an illustration, I offer an original conceptual model for linking the causes and cascading consequences of slow-motion disasters. This model highlights the embedded connections between structural factors, such as racial segregation and systemic unemployment, and multiple destructive outcomes, including health and crime disparities, as well as problem substance use. Finally, I conclude that sociological researchers must engage with broader publics and diverse coalitions if they are to contribute to an alternative social policy—a holistic, regional "disaster response"—that takes multiple layers of causality into account, and addresses the core of vulnerabilities that make such disasters possible.     

Solving the Economic Lot-Scheduling Problem Using the Method of Prime Subperiods

In recent years the reported successes of Japanese production systems, particularly the just-in-time approach to inventory control, has caused managers to focus more of their attention on efficient decision-making procedures for determining production schedules that minimize inventory costs. One such potential area of attention is the economic lot-scheduling problem (ELSP), which occurs in a variety of manufacturing environments where machining operations are prevalent. The economic lot-scheduling problem addresses the determination of lot sizes for N products with constant demand (and cycled through one machine with a given production rate) to minimize setup and inventory costs. The most successful solution approaches to the ELSP have been based on the concept of a basic period that is of sufficient length for the production of all items, even though each item might not be produced during each repetition of the basic period. This paper proposes a heuristic approach to the solution of the ELSP (referred to as the method of prime subperiods), which is an extension of the basic period approaches. The procedure is described and demonstrated via an example and then tested using a set of six example problems previously employed in the literature related to the ELSP. The results indicate as good or superior performance by the proposed method of prime subperiods.     

A Comparative Analysis of the Relative Effectiveness of Four Dynamic Lot-Sizing Techniques on Return on Investment

The relative performance of dynamic lot-sizing techniques has been of considerable interest to researchers in recent years. While research has addressed performance in terms of cost-effectiveness, researchers have not determined the impact of dynamic lot-sizing techniques on return on investment (ROI) as it applies to finished goods' schedules. The purpose of this research is to explore the relative performance of four dynamic lot-sizing techniques with regard to ROI, namely the Wagner-Whitin, Incremental Part Period, Silver-Meal, and Groff techniques. Computer graphics are employed to analyze the relative ROI effectiveness.     

The impact of specific occupation on mortality in the U.S. National Longitudinal Mortality Study

We compare mortality differences for specific and general categories of occupations using a national cohort of approximately 380,000 persons aged 25-64 from the U.S. National Longitudinal Mortality Study. Based on comparisons of relative risk obtained from Cox proportional-hazards model analyses, higher risk is observed in moving across the occupational spectrum from the technical, highly skilled occupations to less-skilled and generally more labor-intensive occupations. Mortality differences obtained for social status groups of specific occupations are almost completely accounted for by adjustments for income and education. Important differences are shown to exist for selected specific occupations beyond those accounted for by social status, income, and education. High-risk specific occupations include taxi drivers, cooks, longshoremen, and transportation operatives. Low-risk specific occupations include lawyers, natural scientists, teachers, farmers, and a variety of engineers.     

Jography: Exploring Meanings,Experiences and Spatialities of Recreational Road-running

Jogging is a relatively under-researched mobile practice with much existing literature focusing on ‘serious’ and competitive running. In this paper, we provide an account of some of the movements, meanings and experiences that together help produce the practice of jogging in the south-western English city of Plymouth. Drawing upon participant diaries and interviews, we uncover rich detail about how joggers ascribe not one but a number of meanings to their practice. Some of these are positive, some are negative; some complement each other and some compete with each other. We also consider how the experiences of joggers can be shaped by their ongoing need to develop tactics capable of enabling them to negotiate space with non-joggers. This is in some contrast to more competitive running that occurs in the separated space of an athletics track. Our sense is that better awareness of the meanings and experiences of jogging will be of value if the advertised health and sustainability benefits of the practice are to be more effectively encouraged and promoted.