Transitional appreciation of equilibrium exchange rates and the ERM II

A suitable parity for exchange rate fixing can be derived from an analysis of the equilibrium exchange rate. As the equilibrium exchange rates of the new EU 5 countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, and the Slovak Republic, tend to exhibit appreciation trends, credibility of the potential commitment to fixed exchange rate parity with respect to the euro can be undermined. In order to investigate this issue, we estimate a behavioral model of real exchange rates for EU 5 countries and derive the respective equilibrium real exchange rates. Using the linear-quadratic filter we estimate permanent equilibrium exchange rates and their stationary points. We find that as of 2004 fixing of the national currencies to the euro should not be undermined by further significant trend appreciation in the equilibrium exchange rates of the EU 5 countries, in aggregate.     

能挽救生命的医学突破

新生代治疗方法已加入到与中风、癌症和心脏病作斗争的行列。除了小时侯摘除过扁桃体之外,63岁的霍华德·库比兹从未进过医院。因此,1998年6月8日,当他中风、身体右半边麻痹时,他唯一的恐惧就是,正如他所了解的,生活就此结束了。他已经想象自己被束缚在轮椅上或是在疗养院里度过余生。     

Generalizability of Gottman and Colleagues' Affective Process Models of Couples' Relationship Outcomes

The generalizability of Gottman et al's. (1998) affective process models was examined using a community-based sample of 85 married or cohabiting couples with at-risk backgrounds. Predictive associations between affective processes assessed at about age 21 years and relationship status and satisfaction approximately 2.5 years later were examined. The major findings of Gottman et al. failed to replicate. In particular, men's rejection of their partners' influence, the lack of men's deescalation of partners' negative affect, and women's negative start up were not predictive of relationship status. Further, differences in affective processes were found when comparing discussion sessions of the men's versus the women's chosen topics. The findings suggested that the validity and utility of the affective process models need further investigation.     

Culture, Context, and Homicide of the Elderly

In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in the criminal victimization of elderly persons. Given that homicides of the elderly are thought to occur primarily in the context of robbery/burglary situations, this study seeks to identify situational as well as structural and cultural factors that influence the murder of older persons. In particular, it has been noted that Southern culture promotes a notion that one should 'respect their elders.' Using conservative Protestant affiliation as a proxy for Southern culture, this study also examines the relationship between Southern culture and homicide of the elderly. Findings show that Southern culture as reflected in conservative Protestant affiliation does not insulate the elderly from victimization.     

Internal Confidentiality: When Confidentiality Assurances Fail Relational Informants

This research note explores a limit in the principle of confidentiality, demonstrating how informants' connected relationships can lead to impaired or diminished autonomy. Insiders may recognize what other insiders have said to a researcher in a private interview. Internal confidentiality is distinct from external confidentiality, which assures protection against identification by those who were not subjects of the research.     

Is Small Always Beautiful? A Dialogue

For quite a few years the two authors have been engaging in dialogues about management issues. Using as a model Plato's dialogues between Socrates and his various students, we have tried to clarify the nature of a concept by asking questions and thinking carefully about the answers. We disagree about many things, but agree that we respect each other's opinions, and can clarify our own viewpoints by debating them respectfully with another. For this dialogue, we decided to focus on the question of the scale of business operations. One of us has a particular preference for small scale enterprise, and for the localisation of the economy, because he believes that the giganticism of corporations is behind many of the problems we face today. As you will see, the other protagonist disagrees, arguing instead that other issues than scale are at the root of why some businesses do bad things.