The validity of survey responses on abortion: Evidence from Estonia

This paper presents results of a validation survey of abortion conducted in Tallinn, Estonia in April and May 1992. The sample was drawn from patient records in a maternity hospital. Women who had an abortion in that hospital in 1991 were asked about recent abortions as part of a survey about women’s health. More than 80% of the respondents reported having a recent abortion. Some respondents misreported their abortion as a miscarriage. Moreover, some variation in reporting was associated with respondents’ characteristics. Ethnic Estonians were less likely to report their abortion than were Russians, women over age 40 were less likely to report the abortion than younger women, and women who had the abortion late in the first trimester were less likely to report that abortion. There was some evidence that unmarried women were less likely than married women to report their abortion, and that women who had borne three or more children were less likely to report their abortion than women who had borne fewer children. These differences probably stem from the extent to which pregnancy or abortion is considered stigmatizing for women in different situations.     

Local polynomial estimation of Poisson intensities in the presence of reporting delays

Summary.  The system for monitoring suicides in Hong Kong has considerable delays in reporting as the cause of death needs to be determined by a coroner's investigation. However, timely estimates of suicide rates are desirable to assist in the formulation of public health policies. This motivated us to develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the intensity function of a Poisson process in the presence of reporting delays. We give closed form estimators of the Poisson intensity and the delay distribution, conduct simulation studies to evaluate the method proposed and derive their asymptotic properties. The method proposed is applied to estimate the intensity of suicide in Hong Kong.     

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

Plaid designs for the evaluation of training for medical practitioners

The training of medical practitioners to improve the practitioner/patient relationship may be difficult, as limitations often exist on the choice of patients included in the study. A specific study of this type of training is given. It is proposed that a simple modification and generalization of Yates' plaid-square designs be used. It is shown that a replicated plaid-design incorporates as a special case the criss-cross or strip-plot design. The usefulness of these designs in studies of the training of medical practitioners is illustrated. The basic characteristics of their analysis are outlined.     

Sets of alternatives as Condorcet winners

We characterize sets of alternatives which are Condorcet winners according to preferences over sets of alternatives, in terms of properties defined on preferences over alternatives. We state our results under certain preference extension axioms which, at any preference profile over alternatives, give the list of admissible preference profiles over sets of alternatives. It turns out to be that requiring from a set to be a Condorcet winner at every admissible preference profile is too demanding, even when the set of admissible preference profiles is fairly narrow. However, weakening this requirement to being a Condorcet winner at some admissible preference profile opens the door to more permissive results and we characterize these sets by using various versions of an undomination condition. Although our main results are given for a world where any two sets – whether they are of the same cardinality or not – can be compared, the case for sets of equal cardinality is also considered. Received: 15 March 2001/Accepted: 31 May 2002 This paper was written while Barış Kaymak was a graduate student in Economics at Boğazi?i University. We thank ?ağatay Kayı and İpek ?zkal-Sanver who kindly agreed to be our initial listeners. The paper has been presented at the Economic Theory seminars of Bilkent, Ko? and Sabancı Universities as well as at the Fifth Conference of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory, July 2001, Ischia, Italy and at the 24^th Bosphorus Workshop on Economic Design, August 2001, Bodrum, Turkey. We thank Fuad Aleskerov, İzak Atiyas, ?zgür Kıbrıs, Semih Koray, Gilbert Laffond, Bezalel Peleg, Murat Sertel, Tayfun S?nmez, Utku ünver and all the participants. Remzi Sanver acknowledges partial financial support from İstanbul Bilgi University and the Turkish Academy of Sciences and thanks Haluk Sanver and Serem Ltd. for their continuous moral and financial support. Last but not the least, we thank Carmen Herrero and two anonymous referees. Of course we are the sole responsible for all possible errors.     

Attracting Micro‐Enterprises To Learning

Micro‐enterprises, i.e. firms with less than 10 employees, are traditionally the hardest to engage in learning; they are also least likely to participate in such measures as business advice and guidance provision and initiatives to support information communication technology (ICT) adoption. Through a community‐based initiative initially targeting parents (unemployed or employed) to participate in ICT, 30 micro‐enterprises were attracted to learning for the first time. These companies had carefully avoided similar initiatives taking place locally, which emphasized business success and growth; they had only participated in this ICT skills training because of their children. The paper takes a case study approach to evaluate the reasons for participation, explores barriers and implications for those organizing similar activities, and calls for a more holistic view of owners and managers of small firms as fathers, mothers, etc. rather than just as ‘entrepreneurs’.     

The evaluation of DNA evidence in pedigrees requiring population inference

Summary. The evaluation of nuclear DNA evidence for identification purposes is performed here taking account of the uncertainty about population parameters. Graphical models are used to detail the hypotheses being debated in a trial with the aim of obtaining a directed acyclic graph. Graphs also clarify the set of evidence that contributes to population inferences and they also describe the conditional independence structure of DNA evidence. Numerical illustrations are provided by re-examining three case-studies taken from the literature. Our calculations of the weight of evidence differ from those given by the authors of case-studies in that they reveal more conservative values.