Stress and Opportunity in the Role of the Prison Welfare Officer

Summary The role of social workers within the penal system has beenthe subject of much discussion and heart-searching by probationofficers and others since the probation service took on responsibilityfor rilling prison welfare posts in 1966. Many officers havebeen reluctant to undertake secondment as Prison Welfare Officersbecause of the difficulties of applying their social work trainingand experience in a penal setting and their fears of absorptioninto a punishment-oriented culture. This article explores thenature of the stresses involved in the practice of social workin this setting, and argues the case for the positive contributionthat social workers can make, at present often ignored in discussingthe stress and conflict inherent in the situation. Stress, itis argued, may be a necessary function of effective work inthis context, and the attempt to reduce it by giving the PWOa more detailed role definition and a clearer position withinthe prison hierarchy is premature. The role is best definedas it emerges from the experience of good practitioners withinthe setting, a concept which has implications for the choiceof probation officers for this type of work and for their approach.They should be able to see and utilize the opportunities foreffective social work, and incorporate available research ina flexible and imaginative methodology     

OPTION VALUE: A GENERAL APPROACH

This article examines a potential bias if expected consumer surplus is used to measure the benefits of a price change under uncertainty. This bias, which is called option value, may be positive or negative. A general framework is developed for analyzing the determinants of the sign of option value, and this framework is applied to three types of uncertainty: income uncertainty, quality uncertainty, and uncertainty over consumer tastes. In the first two cases, option value has a determinate sign; however, in the last case, option value may be positive, negative, or zero in an unpredictable fashion.     

IS THE BUDGET DEFICIT “TOO LARGE?”

Yes. Specifically, we find that recent spending and taxing policies of the government–if continued–violate the government's intertemporal budget constraint. As a result, government spending must be reduced and/or tax revenues must be increased. These conclusions are based on tests of whether government spending and revenue are cointegrated. In addition to examining real spending and revenue, we also normalize these variables by real GNP and population. For a growing economy, these normalized measures are perhaps more pertinent. We also test and find support for the hypothesis that deficits have become a problem only in recent years.     

RECESSIONS AND RECOVERIES IN REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODELS

We evaluate the ability of a simple real business cycle model to generate business cycles in the classical NBER sense of the term, where recessions are periods of absolute declines in economic activity. We use the "phase" classification of Burns and Mitchell [1946] to determine the "shape" of the business cycle and to look for asymmetries between expansions and contractions. We show that such a model can generate business cycles of plausible duration and depth, but cannot match the actual "Shape" of the business cycle. Nonlinear models, such as Friedman's [1993] "plucking" model may more closely match the observed shape.     

News Framing and Cueing of Issue Regimes: Explaining Clinton's Public Approval in Spite of Scandal

During the period of exceedingly critical news coverage surroundingthe Monica Lewinsky debacle, President Bill Clinton's job approvalratings were at some of the highest levels they reached duringhis tenure in office. Given this public response, many pollsters,pundits, and scholars argued that news coverage of the scandalmust have been largely irrelevant to the public. Our view countersthese claims by advancing a theory that recognizes that citizens'political preferences are influenced substantially by framesand cues provided by news media. To test our ideas, we drawupon three types of data, all from January 1993 to March 1999:(a) a longitudinal content analysis of major news media, (b)a time-trend of opinion polls on presidential job approval,and (c) monthly estimates of real disposable personal income,seasonally adjusted. Analyses reveal that news media emphasisupon and framing of certain issue regimes—to the framingof the scandal in terms of the strategic motives of conservativeelites.     

Modelling Deceleration in Senescent Mortality

Mortality deceleration is the observed but yet to be understood phenomenon that the increase in the late-life death rate slows down after a certain species-related advanced age. Various definitions of onsets of mortality deceleration are examined. A new distribution based on the Strehler-Mildvan theory of aging takes on the required shapes. The application is done on mortality data from the 1892 cohort of Swedish women and on Mediterranean fruit flies.     

THE IMPACT OF GENDER ON VOLUNTARY AND INVOLUNTARY EXECUTIVE DEPARTURE

We examine the frequency and conditions of executive departure from S&P 1500 firms. Based upon published news reports, we find that female executives are more likely than male executives to depart their positions voluntarily and involuntarily in the presence of controls for firm performance, firm governance, and human capital. We also find that women are less likely than men to depart voluntarily as firm size increases or board size decreases but more likely to be dismissed as the board becomes more male dominated. (JEL G30, G32, G34, J44)     

COLLECTION SALES: GOOD OR BAD FOR JOURNALS?

This article discusses the impact of collection sales (i.e., the bundling of several journals for sale by publishers to libraries) on journals. The advent of electronic journal distribution implies that bundling is an efficient sales strategy and can act to extend the reach of a journal. Current arrangements are discussed and shown to lead to tensions between commercial publishers and nonprofit journals. The article argues that nonprofit journals should not necessarily abandon collection sales programs. Rather, nonprofit journals may benefit from withdrawing from commercial publishers which distribute their own for-profit journals, and joining together to be distributed by less commercial publishers who set relatively low prices for their collections. ( JEL D82, L31, L42, L82)     

FINANCIAL MARKET VARIABLES DO NOT PREDICT REAL ACTIVITY

The past decade has seen an extensive empirical reassessment of the information content of financial market variables sensitive to monetary policy. Particularly provocative are recent papers suggesting that some interest rates and interest rate spreads contain more information about economic activity than monetary aggregates. This paper reviews important methodological pitfalls in these studies. We then show that none of the commonly employed measures of monetary policy contain incremental information useful in forecasting real economic activity. Two conclusions are possible. Either monetary policy innovations have no significant real effects, or we (collectively) have failed in our efforts to measure monetary policy. ( JEL E52)