ON THE SEARCH FOR TALENT IN ACADEMIC LABOR MARKETS: EASILY OBSERVABLE LATER‐GRADUATE STUDY OUTCOMES AS PREDICTORS OF EARLY‐CAREER PUBLISHING,PLACEMENT, AND TENURE

Three easily observed later‐graduate study outcomes, working with a prominent advisor, publishing while in graduate school, and coauthoring with the advisor are demonstrated to be significant determinants of early‐career publishing success for a sample of nearly 3,000 Ph.D. recipients from more than 100 domestic programs between 1990 and 1993. Out‐of‐sample predictions for 681 Ph.D. recipients from the class of 1994 indicate that these easily observed later‐graduate study signals dramatically improve our ability to forecast which students become prolific and which students fail to publish more than one article. Analyzing initial domestic tenure‐track economics placements indicates that hiring departments placed far more emphasis on Ph.D. program pedigree, leading to an initial tenure rate of less than 50% but eventually nearly three‐fourths currently hold tenured positions in the United States. (JEL J24, J44)     

CAPITAL GAINS AND SOCIAL INCOME

The seminal work on concepts of income implicitly assumed given expectations, thereby excluding all capital revaluations (gains and losses) from consideration. This became codified in national accounting systems and rationalized by arbitrary conventions. In a changing economy this exclusion is shown to warp the income stream, resulting in a theoretically inconsistent concept that arbitrarily mixes current and past relative prices (and hence expectations). A theoretically grounded concept is proposed that includes current accrued real capital gains and losses. It is also shown that replacement cost (or market value) depreciation is valid only if capital revaluations have been included in income.     

WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF 'SOCIAL INCOME' IN A CHANGING ECONOMY

Samuelson (1961) concluded that in a dynamic setting any scalar concept of current economic activity is inherently myopic with respect to the relevant welfare-space. This conclusion, which virtually undermines any welfare foundations for the concept of income, is shown to be based on an incomplete and inconsistent concept of capital formation. When this is amended, the alleged welfare contradiction in the concept of income vanishes .     

A Longitudinal Test of the Selective Exposure Hypothesis

Field research which supports the conclusion that mass mediacampaigns are ineffective has generally been difficult to interpretbecause of methodological limitations. Despite these limitations,the argument that individuals will expose themselves only toinformation which is consistent with their current attitudesis generally offered as an explanation for the negative results.The research reported here uses data from a public health massmedia campaign to test this selective exposure hypothesis. Usingthe variables of media campaign exposure, health knowledge,and health attitudes, the results indicate support for the effectivenessof the media campaign and little support for the selective exposurehypothesis.     

Anomie, opportunity, and the density of ethnic ties: another view of Jewish outmarriage in Canada

Deux perspectives du mariage des juifs en dehors de leur groupe, au Canada, sont évaluées dans cet article. La 1ère souligne 1'anomie et la rupture des liens normatifs. La 2e est une interpretation structurelle qui soutient que le mariage en dehors du groupe est surtout dû aux chances limitées de se marier à l'intérieur de la collectivité. Les données sont tirées de Statistiques Canada/ chaque province représentant une unite d'analyse. Les données sont plus compatibles avec la perspective structurelle du mariage en dehors du groupe qu'avec l'argument de l'anomie.
This paper assesses two views of Jewish outmarriage in Canada. One focuses on anomie and the disruption of normative ties to best explain outmarriage. The other is a structural explanation which holds that outmarriage is largely a result of restricted opportunities to marry within the group.
The data are drawn from Statistics Canada, with each province as the unit of analysis. The data are more consistent with the structural view of outmarriage than with the anomie argument.