RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN THE AGGREGATE

This paper investigates the relationship between the way rational expectations is employed in practice and the argument initially put forth to justify its use. In practice rational expectations has meant that the expectations of each agent taken separately is consistent with the predictions of the theory. This is different than the argument frequently used by proponents of rational expectations that on an aggregate level expectations should be consistent with the theory. The primary findings are that standard and aggregate rational expectations typically yield systematically different equilibria and that the size of the difference depends positively on the degree of synergism.     

THE LONG RUN BEHAVIOR OF THE INCOME VELOCITY OF MONEY IN FIVE ADVANCED COUNTRIES, 1870–1975: AN INSTITUTIONAL APPROACH

The income velocity of money in Canada, the United States, Great Britain, Norway and Sweden displays a U-shaped pattern over the last one hundred years. This paper presents and tests empirically an explanation for this secular pattern emphasizing the influence on velocity of institutional changes. The inclusion into a simple velocity function of institutional developments such as the process of monetization, the spread of commercial banking, financial development and the growth of economic stability improves the explanation of long-run movements in velocity provided by a regression of velocity on real permanent income per head and the interest rate.     

Theory for Approved Social Work: the Use of the Compulsory Admissions Assessment Schedule

Correspondence to Michael Sheppard, Department of Applied Social Science, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth. Summary In his work on compulsory admissions under the Mental HealthAct, 1983, Sheppard (1990) developed the Compulsory AdmissionsAssessment Schedule (CASH) in response to identified knowledgedeficiencies and as a means for operationalizing a knowledgebase distinctive to social work. While subject to detailed theoreticaldevelopment it was not tested in practice. This article examinesthe use of CASH in practice, and the results have implicationsfor compulsory admission assessments. This paper indicates thatCASH is practical to use, that, although there are some greyareas, CASH on the whole distinguishes clearly between possiblesections and those not possible to section, that dangers, hazardsand risks are clearly identified, that rating is consistentwith the seriousness of dangers identified, that cumulativeuse of CASH may help develop accountability, and that socialwork evaluation of CASH is positive. This article concludesthat there are considerable benefits from the use of CASH, thatASWs should be trained properly in its use, and, more widely,that these results, together with Sheppard's (1990) originalresearch and theoretical development, indicates that, when conductedappropriately, social science can directly, and beneficially,be applied to practice.     

Response Validity in Surveysof Voting Behavior

This paper presents the results of a project which validatedthe reported registration and voting behavior of respondentsin a national election study. The accuracy of reported votingbehavior in the 1976 general election is assessed in terms ofthe demographic characteristics of the respondents to the Centerfor Political Studies National Election Study as well as theextent of their participation in a survey panel begun in 1972.Increased levels of registration and turnout are observed inassociation with the number of interviews in which respondentsparticipated, and three alternative social psychological modelsof the effects of preelection interviews are evaluated. Althoughthe interview apparently served as a stimulus to voting, neithera model associated with self-concept theory nor alienation theoryappears to explain the phenomenon adequately. The intervieweffect is significant and appears to be cumulative, indicatingthat researchers usingthe survey method with panel designs shouldbe sitive to the effects of their method on the behavior whichthey are tryingto measure.     

Public opinion and the Canadian political crisis*

This survey of public opinion offers little hope of a speedy resolution to the conflict between the federal government and the government of Quebec by reference to a wider public debate than is provided for in the existing electoral machinery. In Quebec, the program of the Parti Quebecois is supported by about one-third of the population. However, the very great majority of Quebecers wants recognition of the special status of French in their province, in line with the recent language legislation of the pq government. French Quebecers also strongly support the extension of bilingual opportunities in education and government in the rest of Canada, policies which are presently beyond the jurisdiction of the federal government and which provincial governments are not yet prepared to enact. A clear majority of Canadians outside Quebec opposes provisions for the special status of French within Quebec as the language of work and of schooling for non-English-speaking immigrants, and only a small majority supports the extension of educational and governmental facilities in French outside Quebec. Differences in public opinion are equally pronounced with respect to the issues of concessions and economic agreement. The great majority of Quebecers favours an economic agreement with the rest of Canada if the province becomes independent. Outside Quebec only a bare majority of Canadians supports any concessions to Quebec to prevent separation, and a large proportion of them draws the line at “minor” concessions. Similarly, only a slight majority of Canadians outside of Quebec is prepared to approve of the negotiation of an economic agreement should a majority of Quebecers vote for independence, and it seems likely that a majority in English Canada would oppose any concrete suggestions for economic union. Further insights into the structure of these political attitudes can be obtained from Table V1, which shows gamma values measuring the associations between the individual items discussed so far and compares these associations for the two large non-minority groups - the French in Quebec and the non-French outside Quebec. The generally stronger associations in Quebec among the responses to items a to E -measuring support for conventional policies of bilingualism - indicate that French Quebecers are more likely to view the extension of these rights in Quebec and English Canada in terms of reciprocity and that their beliefs are more coherently organized than those of English Canadians. It is interesting to examine the relationship between support for English-language schooling for Canadians who move to Quebec versus provision for this schooling for people who do not speak English and move to Quebec. In English Canada the two policies are very strongly related; the gamma of 81 indicates that both policies are seen as part of a single dimension. But French Quebecers see these as two distinguishable issues, though they are still positively related (the gamma is.25). In Quebec there is little relationship between support for independence and attitudes to bilingualism. Support for independence is weakly, but negatively, correlated with support for English schooling for English Canadians who move to Quebec and with recognition of the right to communicate with the Quebec government in English. Supporters of independence tend to oppose common Federalist notions of bilingualism, but not as strongly as might be expected. What is suggested here is that “independen-tisme” is a reaction to conditions within Quebec - as indicated further by the definite association between support for independence and the measures to protect French within Quebec - rather than a reaction to conditions in Canada or an ethnocentric response to English Canadians generally. The data in Table VI also indicate that amongst non-French-speaking Canadians outside Quebec support for the extension of opportunities for the use of French in Canada is associated with support for the recognition of the special status of French in Quebec and with approval of a more conciliatory attitude to concessions and economic agreement with Quebec. The relevant coefficients are in the order of.30, indicating a fairly consistent attitudinal structure. In English Canada, therefore, attitudes to bilingualism reflect a general orientation towards political developments in Quebec which can be seen in terms of the response of a dominant ethnic group to the assertion of “civil rights” by an ethnic minority. In Quebec, on the other hand, problems of civil rights in majority-minority relations within Canada have little or nothing to do with the demand for the right to self-determination. This demand reflects rather the concentration of the French population and the historical continuity of the French community in Quebec, and arguments over the right to self-determination are based upon interpretations of political and economic conditions within Quebec. Within Quebec, therefore, we expect to explain attitudes to independence and language rights in terms of conventional theories of support for nationalist movements, while in the rest of Canada we concentrate on theories of prejudice and support for civil liberties.     

Source and Nature of Social Support given to Women at Divorce/Separation

Summary Thirty divorced or permanently separated women rated 12 differentsources of social support (including family and friends as wellas professional and religious bodies) for their importance inproviding 17 different types of help or support during the firstsix months of the separation/divorce. Friends proved to be thesingle overall important source of support, but the differentialimportance of social support as a function of type of help given,points to the multidimensional aspect of social support.