SCARCITY AND RICARDIAN RENTS FOR CRUDE OIL*

This paper estimates scarcity rent/user cost and Ricardian rent for crude oil in Oklahoma. A model of firm behavior is proposed incorporating both development and production decisions considering crude oil as a nonrenewable natural resource. Profit maximization conditions derived from the model are applied to take into account cost differentials associated with oil found at varying depths. It is shown that oil with the highest cost is the marginal unit and it is the marginal output that determines Ricardian rent. Time series data is used to estimate equations derived from the necessary conditions. It is found that scarcity rent is a significant proportion of the price of crude oil and has increased in the past decade.     

Tattooing and Civilizing Processes: Body Modification as Self‐control*

Malgré la révolution en cours dans le tatouage en Amérique du Nord, les universitaires restent attachés à l'idée que les « fanatiques du tatouage » seraient des inadaptés sociaux. Dans cet article, des données obtenues au cours d'une observation participante de trois ans parmi des fanatiques du tatouage au Canada ouvrent la porte à une critique des interprétations psycho‐sociales privilégiées du tatouage comme étant une conduite irrationnelle, impliquant des risques (voir Carroll et coll., 2002; Roberts et Ryan, 2002). À la lumière de la sociologie figurationnelle (Elias, 1983; 1994; 1996), le tatouage est ici vu comme un acte de communication à caractère sociable et régi affectivement plutôt que comme un cas pathologique d'automutilation. Despite the ongoing revolution in the use of tattoos in North America, academic understandings of tattooing remain grounded in conceptions of “tattoo enthusiasts” as social misfits. In this paper, data from three years of participant observation with tattoo enthusiasts in Canada help critique preferred social‐psychological interpretations of tattooing as irrational, “risk‐taking behaviour” (see Carroll et al., 2002; Roberts and Ryan, 2002). Through the lens of figurational sociology (Elias, 1983; 1994; 1996), tattooing is interpreted in this paper as a pro‐social and affectively regulated act of communication, rather than a pathological instance of self‐injury.     

Some results concerning off-training-set and IID error for the Gibbs and the Bayes optimal generalizers

In this paper we analyse the average behaviour of the Bayes-optimal and Gibbs learning algorithms. We do this both for off-training-set error and conventional IID (independent identically distributed) error (for which test sets overlap with training sets). For the IID case we provide a major extension to one of the better known results. We also show that expected IID test set error is a non-increasing function of training set size for either algorithm. On the other hand, as we show, the expected off-training-set error for both learning algorithms can increase with training set size, for non-uniform sampling distributions. We characterize the relationship the sampling distribution must have with the prior for such an increase. We show in particular that for uniform sampling distributions and either algorithm, the expected off-training-set error is a non-increasing function of training set size. For uniform sampling distributions, we also characterize the priors for which the expected error of the Bayes-optimal algorithm stays constant. In addition we show that for the Bayes-optimal algorithm, expected off-training-set error can increase with training set size when the target function is fixed, but if and only if the expected error averaged over all targets decreases with training set size. Our results hold for arbitrary noise and arbitrary loss functions.     

TREND OF SUBJECTS PUBLISHED IN ECONOMICS JOURNALS 1969–2007

We describe the evolution of subject areas published in economics over four decades and calculate the percentage of articles published in each Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) subject category, with and without weighting by Eigenfactor.com 's Article Influence (AI). Finance, Development, and Industrial Organization have seen their share of total articles rise over the past four decades while Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, and Labor have seen their share fall. We use JEL codes to define specialty journals and find that more specialty journals tend to increase the overall percentage share for that subject. This effect is ambiguous when re‐weighted by AI. (JEL A11, A14)     

Pseudo Self-Consistent Estimation of a Copula Model with Informative Censoring

Abstract.  We consider the case where a terminal event censors a non-terminal event, but not vice versa. When the events are dependent, estimation of the distribution of the non-terminal event is a competing risks problem, while estimation of the distribution of the terminal event is not. The dependence structure of the event times is formulated with the gamma frailty copula on the upper wedge, with the marginal distributions unspecified. With a consistent estimator of the association parameter, pseudo self-consistency equations are derived and adapted to the semiparametric model. Existence, uniform consistency and weak convergence of the new estimator for the marginal distribution of the non-terminal event is established using theories of empirical processes, U -statistics and Z -estimation. The potential practical utility of the methodology is illustrated with simulated and real data sets.     

THE TERMS OF TRADE AND THE INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OF FISCAL POLICY

This paper develops an example of a noncooperative game between fiscal authorities in two countries. The key strategic link between countries is the terms of trade. An equilibrium without cooperation is characterized by excessive tax rates and public spending levels in each country. The outcome is analogous to the Nash equilibrium of the static optimal tarif game in trade theory. But in this model there is also a dynamic distortion caused by noncooperative behaviour. This dynamic distortion depresses capital accumulation and reduces the equilibrium capital stock in each country. Numerical examples suggest a significant welfare benefit of cooperation.