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NONLINEAR BUSINESS CYCLE DYNAMICS: CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON THE PERSISTENCE OF AGGREGATE SHOCKS 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We look for asymmetries in the dynamics of real GDP growth for the G7 countries, using a model by Beaudry and Koop that allows the depth of a recession to influence the rate of growth of output. We find evidence supporting these nonlinearities in four countries, including the United States, but we do not find evidence that the asymmetries are common even among the four countries exhibiting asymmetric behavior. A modification of the model to distinguish between the recession and recovery phases of a business cycle does not change this general finding. The asymmetries discovered by Beaudry and Koop do not appear to be common among the G7 nations. (JEL E32) 相似文献
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A set of items from the General Social Survey for 1975 and 1977measuring alienation and fear of walking near one's home atnight, which were claimed by Gerbner et al. (1978a) to be relatedto heavy television watching, are reanalyzed with simultaneouscontrols for age, sex, race, income, education, hours workedper week outside the home, church attendance, membership involuntary associations, and population size. The effects oftelevision watching on responses to these items which were claimedby Gerbner et al. are largely absent in this analysis. Itemsin the same data set used by Gerbner et al., but not includedin their analysis are analyzed using the technique above, withresults that fail to support the contention of Gerbner and hisassociates. The implications of these findings for a cultivationtheory of television effects are discussed. 相似文献
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This paper examines the relationship between basic and applied pharmaceutical research. We focus on three stages of research and development (R & D): government-funded basic research; publication in medical journals; and industry-finded applied R&D. We estimate that a one percent increase in basic research in a particular therapeutic category causes a 0.76 percent increase in industry R&D in that category, and a 1.71 percent increase in other categories, mer seven years. We also find that research incentives differ across government, academic and industry researchers. For example, government funding favors diseases that are less prevalent and more debilitating than industry funding. 相似文献
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Abstract In this article we deploy transnational ethnography to explore the transnational electoral politics by which Andrés Bermúdez, a successful tomato grower and labour contractor from Winters, California, who came to be called ‘the Tomato King’, was elected mayor of the municipality of Jerez in the Mexican state of Zacatecas. We seek to explain the meaning of his transnational electoral victory and its impact on the role of ‘the migrant’ as a new social actor in Mexican political development. We thus situate the Bermudista phenomenon in the context of the literature on migrant transnational politics. We hope to move the literature on migrant political transnationalism forward by advancing an agency‐oriented perspective that incorporates both the politics of representation of ‘el migrante’ in transnational electoral campaigns and the emerging dynamics of transnational coalition politics. Our approach underlines the need to carefully historicize the relationship between transnationalism and citizenship ‐ namely, to map the contingency and agency underlying the changing practices of states, migrants, and transnational institutional networks vis‐à‐vis questions of transnational citizenship. This is best done by paying close attention to the actual social and political practices whereby human agents pursue historically specific political projects that extend the practices of citizenship across borders. 相似文献
38.
Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Gaussian Chain Graph Models under the Alternative Markov Property 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Abstract. The Andersson–Madigan–Perlman (AMP) Markov property is a recently proposed alternative Markov property (AMP) for chain graphs. In the case of continuous variables with a joint multivariate Gaussian distribution, it is the AMP rather than the earlier introduced Lauritzen–Wermuth–Frydenberg Markov property that is coherent with data-generation by natural block-recursive regressions. In this paper, we show that maximum likelihood estimates in Gaussian AMP chain graph models can be obtained by combining generalized least squares and iterative proportional fitting to an iterative algorithm. In an appendix, we give useful convergence results for iterative partial maximization algorithms that apply in particular to the described algorithm. 相似文献
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Abstract. The supremum difference between the cumulative sum diagram, and its greatest convex minorant (GCM), in case of non-parametric isotonic regression is considered. When the regression function is strictly increasing, and the design points are unequally spaced, but approximate a positive density in even a slow rate ( n −1/3 ), then the difference is shown to shrink in a very rapid (close to n −2/3 ) rate. The result is analogous to the corresponding result in case of a monotone density estimation established by Kiefer and Wolfowitz, but uses entirely different representation. The limit distribution of the GCM as a process on the unit interval is obtained when the design variables are i.i.d. with a positive density. Finally, a pointwise asymptotic normality result is proved for the smooth monotone estimator, obtained by the convolution of a kernel with the classical monotone estimator. 相似文献
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This paper investigates whether the quality certification required by certain state used vehicle disclosure laws has been effective. Metzger concluded from a theoretical investigation of non-market responses to the lemons problem, that such laws may or may not be effective. We have been unable to find evidence that the currently mandated disclosure requirements in Wisconsin (known defects provision) and Iowa (safety certification) are effective in increasing the number of good quality vehicles traded in those used markets. These disclosure requirements do not seem to decrease a prospective buyer's risk of purchasing a lemon. 相似文献