Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote

The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of hisvote share in a reelection bid, especially when popularity isassessed in June of that year. This June popularity-vote modelpredicts about as well as the Gallup final preelection poll,and a 50 percent approval rating will ensure reelection.     

‘Autograph of a Nation’: The Daughters of the American Revolution and the National Old Trails Road, 1910–1927

In 1912, a group of women within the National Society of the Daughters of the American Revolution (DAR) undertook to become architects of the first continuous transcontinental automobile route, to be called the ‘National Old Trails Road’ highway. Consistent with many of the private road improvement initiatives during the heyday of America's good roads movement, ‘Daughters’ in many states were involved in mapping the route and posing a variety of marking schemes that would etch upon the landscape the DAR's sponsorship of the route. In doing so, the Daughters staked an explicit claim for the DAR and for American women in the project of nation‐building, by promoting their National Old Trails Road as a culmination of Manifest Destiny. This episode highlights the interrelationship of gender and the nation. This article argues that while women function passively in nationalist rhetoric to symbolise the nation, one must also acknowledge the agency of conservative women's groups in constructing and perpetuating nationalist narratives in ways that were often surprisingly complex and not simply imitative of men.     

The Limits of Radical Social Work

Summary Doubts raised by research evaluation of traditional caseworkhave been increased by the perception by radical social workersthat some clients' difficulties derive from their involvementwith state machinery rather than personal capacity or circumstances,and that many can be helped by working collectively with othersin their community rather than striving alone in a dependentrelationship with a caseworker. Radical aspirations, however,assume that all clients have the capacity to overcome theirdifficulties and that none are so damaged as to be able realisticallybarely to cope with them. The radicals' doubts about the usefulnessof individual support and emphasis on collective self help raisethe danger of neglecting those who are unable to participateeffectively and gain from such efforts.     

Integrating Group Dynamics Training and the Education and Development of Social Work Students

Summary This paper explores experience of the development of a groupdynamics workshop in a post-graduate course for student socialworkers. The background to the workshops is outlined with referenceto students, course staff and consultant staff. A brief summaryof different conceptual approaches to group dynamics trainingis offered in order to clarify terminology and methods. Importantconclusions concerning the design and operation of the workshopsare drawn and emphasis is placed on an analysis of the multiplerole situation of student social workers, choosing appropriatelearning designs, and making these explicit     

APPLICATIONS OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS

The basic concepts and application of spectral analysis are explained. Stationary time series and autocorrelation are first defined. Autocorrelation is related to the familiar concepts of variance and covariance. The use of autocorrelation analysis is explained in estimating the interdependent relationship of a time series over discrete time lags. In order to measure the behavior of the time series using autocorrelation, it would be necessary to examine a very large number of autocorrelation lags. Alternatively, the technique of Fourier analysis can be used to transform the autocorrelation function of the time series into a continuous function, termed a spectrum. The spectrum has a one to one correspondence to the autocorrelation for the time series and has the advantage of representing all possible autocorrelations over the discrete time lags. The spectrum can then be examined as a measure of the behavior of the time series. Spectral analysis indicates the reliability of the analysis of autocorrelated variables when familiar statistical techniques such as sample means and variances are used. The application of spectral analysis to management science problems in three general areas is illustrated: (1) inventory demand, (2) transportation simulation, and (3) stock market price behavior. Spectral analysis was used to detect cycles and trends in the data. Analyses were focused on the spectrum which provides a measure of the relative contribution of cycles in a band of frequencies to the total variance of the data.     

Social Work, Social Science and Practice Wisdom

Correspondence to Michael Sheppard, Department of Applied Social Science, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA. Summary Social work has for some time had an ambiguous and ambivalentrelationship with its social science knowledge base. However,this has arisen, at least in part, because of the emphasis onthe outcome or product of social science rather than the processby which research is conducted. This paper, focusing on assessment,argues that an emphasis on process goes some way to closingthe gap between social science and social work, that the methodsused by social researchers are, in many respects, simply refinementsof the methodology of everyday life, and that social workers,when conducting assessments operate rather like practical qualitativeresearchers. Using Analytical Induction as an heuristic device,it proceeds to explore critical characteristics of good practicein social work assessments. It concludes that practice shouldbe characterized by critical awareness, involving imaginativedevelopment of alternative hypotheses, a sceptical attitudetowards case assessments and a principle of adopting hypothesesleast likely to be in error.     

A COUNTRY RISK INDEX: ECONOMETRIC FORMULATION AND AN APPLICATION TO MEXICO

Dynamic factor analysis is used to estimate a monthly country risk index for Mexico. This method extracts the unobservable risk information contained in deviations from interest rate parity and allows for hypothesis tests regarding the important determinants of such risk. The results suggest that the ratios of imports to reserves and debt to exports are important determinants of Mexican country risk. The estimated risk index correctly anticipates the Mexican capital controls and financial crisis of August 1982. In addition, the index significantly leads the country risk rating published by Institutional Investor based on commercial bank surveys.