A LABORATORY STUDY OF INDIVIDUAL SEARCH PATTERNS IN A DECISION-MAKING SITUATION

This study investigates the effects of time and probability constraints on the search process in a decision-making situation. The setting was a behavioral laboratory in which subjects were asked to choose one art print from a selection of 260 prints. The prints were in sets of five for convenience in showing. In the nonconstraint condition, subjects were able to set their own pace in viewing prints and could obtain any print in the whole set that was desired. Under the constraint condition, the time and probability constraints were both operative. Under the time constraint, viewing additional sets required increasing amounts of time. Under the probability constraint, there was a constantly reducing probability—down to a minimum of ten percent—of obtaining an earlier print as more prints were viewed. In comparison to unconstrained subjects, constrained subjects viewed fewer prints and did more rechecking in total while the search was in process.     

ON ESTIMATING PARAMETERS FOR BETA DISTRIBUTIONS

The purpose of this paper is to comment on and give historical perspective to two methdologies for estimating parameters of beta distributions. Fielitz and Myers [3] [4] developed and advocated a methodology using the method of moments, while Romesburg [20] advocated a methodology usingthe method of maximum likelihood. However, what Fielitz and Myers presented as new research and suggested as an area needing further study is ground already trampled. The authors have prepared a graph to underline the superiority of the maximum likelihood method in fitting beta distributions.     

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH INTERACTION EFFECTS

The purpose of this paper is to extend the sensitivity analysis methodology as it applies to linear programming. The methodology developed herein is concerned with those changes in a technological coefficient that cause simultaneous changes in the relevant cost coefficients of the objective function. By proceeding from the definitions of feasibility and optimality, the authors develop formulas for determining bounds on the extent to which a technological coefficient, which has a predetermined effect on the corresponding cost coefficient, can vary without changing the optimal set of activities. After the formulas are developed, their use is demonstrated on a product-mix problem. This technique is of interest because changes in the rate at which an input is utilized can be expected to change the cost per unit of a resulting product. This interdependence should be recognized whenever a sensitivity analysis is performed on a technological coefficient of either a cost minimization or a contribution margin maximization problem.     

EXPLORING MARKET PRICING STRATEGIES VIA DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING

Price determinants as well as strategies can be studies by use of simulation, particularly if cost and price relationships can be related to market activity [1] [9] [11]. But, through the use of dynamic programming, given the market conditions, one can extend the analysis to include an optimal strategy. This paper describes a dynamic programming approach to studying price strategy. A model is developed to show that in a market characterized by cost/volume and price/volume relationships, profitability can be extended beyond that resulting from a dominant market strategy to an optimal maximizing strategy. Extension of the model is suggested for studying (a) sensitivity of a strategy (solution) to price level and cost changes, (b) optimal timing of withdrawal, and (c) present value analysis.     

OECD国家私有养老金在金融危机中的业绩及治理

2008年爆发的金融危机,对于世界经济产生了深刻的影响,其中一个非常重要的方面就是对养老金基金的影响。养老金基金在金融危机中大幅贬值,引起了人们对于过去三十多年的养老金制度改革的怀疑,是继续改革还是回到从前成为各国政府和理论界面临的一个难题。通过对OECD国家私有养老金基金的投资、业绩及治理情况的分析,我们基本上可以肯定,金融危机对于基金积累型的养老金制度的影响可能是巨大的,但却是暂时的,养老金基金的长期业绩是良好的。通过加强养老金基金的投资风险管理和合理的外部监督,私有养老金是能够成为人们退休收入保障的一个稳定的源泉的。     

How Latinos Are Transforming the United States: Research, Theory, and Policy

The United States is entering a new era, a period marked by some important demographic changes in the composition of the population, most especially significant increases in the Latino and Latino immigrant segments of society. These population shifts require corresponding interpersonal, organizational, and structural changes. The present issue bridges research and theory across disciplines and includes studies incorporating a variety of methodologies to examine these important areas. These articles begin to fill some of the voids where a systematic and robust corpus of knowledge is lacking. The contributions address topics ranging from issues of identity and interpersonal relations to pressing matters of educational significance to general approaches to navigating the cultural transitions that mark fluid transnational adaptations. Finally, each contribution delineates the policy implications resulting from the processes and literatures that are examined.     

Dynamic reasoning and time pressure: Transition from analytical operations to experiential responses

Based upon the Decision Field Theory (Busemeyer and Townsend 1993), we tested a model of dynamic reasoning to predict the effect of time pressure on analytical and experiential processing during decision-making. Forty-six participants were required to make investment decisions under four levels of time pressure. In each decision, participants were presented with experiential cues which were either congruent or incongruent with the analytical information. The congruent/incongruent conditions allowed us to examine how many decisions were based upon the experiential versus the analytical information, and to see if this was affected by the varying degrees of time pressure. As expected, the overall accuracy was reduced with greater time pressure and accuracy was higher when the experiential and analytical cues were congruent than when they were incongruent. Of great interest was the data showing that under high time pressure participants used more experiential cues than at other time pressures. We suggest that the dynamic reasoning paradigm has some future potential for predicting the effects of experiential biases in general, and specifically under time pressure.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： ONLINE LITERATURE IN CHINA： PRESENT SITUATION AND THEORETICAL REFLECTIONS Online Writing in the Course of Discourse Transformation： A Review of Ten Outstanding Online Novels of the Past Decade

中国当代文学阅读层面上的价值认同正在经受前所未有的挑战。特别是新世纪以来,新的写作群体、写作方式不断涌现,使固有的理论批评体系遭到撞击、被撕裂,从而导致理论批评不时出现失语现象。随着网络文学的迅猛发展,非主流文学在阅读与消费环节中的影响日益增强,这就使得上述问题转化成了新的矛盾——互相不能包容的阅读隔膜。十多年来,网络上产生了海量的小说文本,逐渐形成了二十多种类型;本文兼顾时间跨度和创作类型,遴选了十年中不同类型的十部佳作,并针对它们区别于纸质媒体的艺术审美和创作特点进行了述评。