Dealing with selection bias in educational transition models: The bivariate probit selection model

This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational transitions to be correlated across transitions. We use simulated and real data to illustrate how the BPSM improves on the traditional Mare model in terms of correcting for selection bias and providing credible estimates of the effect of family background on educational success. We conclude that models which account for selection on unobserved variables and high-quality data are both required in order to estimate credible educational transition models.     

Pressures on State Welfare in Post‐industrial Societies: Is More or Less Better?

Although contemporary comparative welfare state research has advanced our knowledge of how welfare states respond to exogenous and endogenous pressures, the nature and implications of these pressures themselves on post‐industrial societies remains somewhat unknown. In the research literature phenomena such as globalization, Europeanization, demographics, individualization and changing labour markets are often claimed to put considerable pressure on welfare states. We analyse which of the alleged pressures are real “crises” or “challenges” to welfare states and which pressures should only be considered as “controversies”—phenomena whose impacts are nonsignificant, ambiguous, or have not been asserted. We suggest that pressures on post‐industrial societies may not, as is commonly believed, be countered with retrenchment and restructuring of welfare states. In fact, some pressures seem to call for more rather than less welfare state.