Learning from a lot: Empirical Bayes for high‐dimensional model‐based prediction

Empirical Bayes is a versatile approach to “learn from a lot” in two ways: first, from a large number of variables and, second, from a potentially large amount of prior information, for example, stored in public repositories. We review applications of a variety of empirical Bayes methods to several well‐known model‐based prediction methods, including penalized regression, linear discriminant analysis, and Bayesian models with sparse or dense priors. We discuss “formal” empirical Bayes methods that maximize the marginal likelihood but also more informal approaches based on other data summaries. We contrast empirical Bayes to cross‐validation and full Bayes and discuss hybrid approaches. To study the relation between the quality of an empirical Bayes estimator and p, the number of variables, we consider a simple empirical Bayes estimator in a linear model setting. We argue that empirical Bayes is particularly useful when the prior contains multiple parameters, which model a priori information on variables termed “co‐data”. In particular, we present two novel examples that allow for co‐data: first, a Bayesian spike‐and‐slab setting that facilitates inclusion of multiple co‐data sources and types and, second, a hybrid empirical Bayes–full Bayes ridge regression approach for estimation of the posterior predictive interval.     

Religion and the environmental opinion in 22 countries: a comparative study

The objective is to test if religiosity affects environmental opinion in Europe. Using data from European Social Survey (ESS) 2002/2003, the study answers three questions. At the societal level: Is public opinion about the environment different in political systems with different Christian traditions? Is environmental concern less or higher in the public opinion depending on the degree of secularization in the political systems? At the individual level: Is the environmental opinion of the individual affected by the personal confession of faith, religious involvement, and the dominant religious context? At the societal level, the findings show stronger concern for the environment in Catholic and Eastern Orthodox countries than in Protestant countries. The tendency also shows a weakened concern for the environment in countries with a rather secular population. At the individual level, there are significant positive effects on environmental care from Catholic culture, negative effect from Protestant culture, and no effect from religious involvement.     

A decision support methodology for strategic planning in maritime transportation

This paper presents a decision support methodology for strategic planning in tramp and industrial shipping. The proposed methodology combines simulation and optimization, where a Monte Carlo simulation framework is built around an optimization-based decision support system for short-term routing and scheduling. The simulation proceeds by considering a series of short-term routing and scheduling problems using a rolling horizon principle where information is revealed as time goes by. The approach is flexible in the sense that it can easily be configured to provide decision support for a wide range of strategic planning problems, such as fleet size and mix problems, analysis of long-term contracts and contract terms. The methodology is tested on a real case for a major Norwegian shipping company. The methodology provided valuable decision support on important strategic planning problems for the shipping company.     

Patterns of Informal Help and Caregiving in Sweden: A Thirteen-Year Perspective

This article analyses informal help and caregiving in Sweden with a focus on the scope and trends of change over time. The discussion is based on the results of three national surveys and of one survey conducted in the county of Stockholm. The results indicated that informal help and caregiving was common throughout the period under study. In the 1990s, the figures were fairly stable, while from the late 1990s to 2005 there seems to have been a dramatic increase in the prevalence of such support. Two interpretative perspectives are used to discuss this pattern. One locates its point of departure in recent welfare state changes and in the substitution argument, according to which cuts in welfare services put more pressure on people to provide informal help and care. The second perspective relates to the present debate on civil society and to its possible role in contemporary society. According to the civil society perspective, an increase in the prevalence of informal help and caregiving might be interpreted as an expression of growing civic involvement 'in its own right', without a straightforward and simple relationship to changes in the welfare state. It is argued in the article that the two frames of interpretation should not be viewed as mutually exclusive, but rather that they represent two partly complementary approaches to the understanding of the complex dynamics of unpaid work in contemporary Swedish society.     

Applying stage-gate processes to technology development—Experience from six hardware-oriented companies

The stage gate model has been proposed for application to uncertain technology development. Reports on industrial experience from such implementations are quite limited, however. This led us to explore in six companies what adaptations have been made to facilitate the model's usefulness for technology development and the companies’ experiences from their practical application of the model. Our results indicate that aspects proven important for the operational success, or failure, of the model include the level of adaptation to the characteristics of technology development and a more flexible use than that normally found in product development.     

The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking

We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments.     

The psychometric and empirical properties of measures of risk preferences

We examine the psychometric and empirical properties of some commonly used survey-based measures of risk preferences in a population-based sample of 11,000 twins. Using a model that provides a general framework for making inferences about the component of measured risk attitudes that is not due to measurement error, we show that measurement-error adjustment leads to substantially larger estimates of the predictive power of risk attitudes, of the size of the gender gap, and of the magnitude of the sibling correlation. Risk attitudes are predictive of investment decisions, entrepreneurship, and drinking and smoking behaviors; are robustly associated with cognitive ability and personality; and our estimates are often larger than those in the literature. Our results highlight the importance of adjusting for measurement error across a wide range of empirical settings.     

The Courtship Dance: Patterns of Nonverbal Synchronization in Opposite-Sex Encounters

This study examines the existence of behavioral correlates of synchronization on different levels of analysis and methods. We were unable to demonstrate a relation between synchronization defined in terms of movement echo or position mirroring and subjective experience of pleasure and interest in opposite-sex encounters. Significant results were found for a phenomenon we describe as hierarchically patterned synchronization. These patterns were identified with the help of a newly developed search algorithm. If a female is interested in a male, highly complex patterns of behavior with a constant time structure emerge. The patterns are pair-specific and independent from behavioral content. This rhythmic structure of interactions is discussed in functional terms of human courtship.     

Organizational closedown and the process of deconstruction and creativity

This paper outlines an analysis of how the deconstruction of organizational, management control and performance management structures affects performances and how workers make sense of enhanced efforts and practices of creativity, in a situation when facing a certainty of job loss as of the closedown of the organization. In this paper, we have shown that the deconstruction of structures generate positive performance outcomes, and that such relation is being mediated by workers identity. We have also shown that identity work under a process of organizational closedown generate certain creativity. By doing so, this paper contributes to the literature on creativity and deconstruction by developing an emergent model where workers identity mediates formal structures in relation to performance. This paper contributes to the literature on closedowns by extending its analytical and theoretical domains, proving alternative, yet complementary and mediating explanations to the causes of drivers to enhanced performances during the process of closedown.