Sexual Risk Behavior in Young Adulthood: Broadening the Scope Beyond Early Sexual Initiation

A robust link between early sexual initiation and sexual risk-taking behavior is reported in previous studies. The relationship may not be causal, however, as the effect of common risk factors is often not considered. The current study examined whether early initiation was a key predictor of risky sexual behavior in the 20s and 30s, over and above co-occurring individual and environmental factors. Data were drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal panel of 808 youth. Early predictors (ages 10 to 15) and sexual risk taking (ages 21 to 24 and 30 to 33) were assessed prospectively. Early sexual initiation (before age 15) was entered into a series of probit regressions that also included family, neighborhood, peer, and individual risk factors. Although a positive bivariate relation between early sexual initiation and sexual risk taking was observed at both ages, the link did not persist when co-occurring risk factors were included. Behavioral disinhibition and antisocial peer influences emerged as the strongest predictors of sexual risk over and above early sexual initiation. These results suggest that early sexual initiation must be considered in the context of common antecedents; public health policy aimed at delaying sexual intercourse alone is unlikely to substantially reduce sexual risk behavior in young adulthood.     

Single Case Probabilities and the Social World: The Application of Popper's Propensity Interpretation

This paper is a re-examination of Popper's propensity interpretation of probability in respect of its potential methodological value in social science. A long standing problem for the (standard) frequency interpretation of probability is that whilst it is able to treat both aggregate and individual phenomena as having measurable properties, it cannot explain the ontological relationship between such concrete individual cases and aggregates. Popper's interpretation treats single cases as both real, but also as realisations of a propensity to occur. The frequency and propensity interpretations are compared and whilst some common objections raised must be upheld, they do not devalue the importance of the propensity interpretation as at least a metaphysical basis for probabilistic claims in social science. However the value of the approach may also lie in its methodological potential. Here I sugest that single case probabilities must be analysed in terms of the anterior probabilities of prior constituent events. In this I move beyond Popper's own programme, but suggest that such a move is theoretically compatible with recent complexity approaches in social science and goes some way toward meeting anti-naturalist concerns about intentionality.     

Mortality in China 1964-2000

This paper uses data from censuses and surveys to re-estimate mortality levels and trends in China from the 1960s to 2000. We use the General Growth Balance method to evaluate the completeness of death reporting above the youngest ages in three censuses of the People's Republic of China from 1982 to 2000, concluding that reporting quality is quite high, and revisit the completeness of death recording in the 1973-75 Cancer Epidemiology Survey. Estimates of child mortality from a variety of direct and indirect sources are reviewed, and best estimates arrived at. Our estimates show a spectacular improvement in life expectancy in China: from about 60 years in the period 1964-82 to nearly 70 years in the period 1990-2000, with a further improvement to over 71 years by 2000. We discuss why survival rates continue improving in China despite reduced government involvement in and increasing privatization of health services, with little insurance coverage.     

A Long-Term Family-Oriented Treatment for Adolescents with Substance-Related Disorders: An Outcome Study

Treatment programs for substance-disordered adolescents increasingly use family and Twelve-Step orientations. Pathway Family Center adds to that model a long term stay (9 to 15 months), a day treatment setting, and the unique feature of temporarily placing the client with the family of another client who has progressed further in the program. This outcome study surveyed the 100 clients and their parents from the first five years of the program, using mailed questionnaires and telephone interviews. Information was collected from 51% of clients and 61% of parents, and client-parent agreement was high. Ninety-eight percent of adolescents reported that they did not return to prior drug severity, 51% reported no use since discharge, 23% reported one or two relapses, 88.2% reported improved family relations, and 90.2% reported improved quality of life. In comparing those who remained completely abstinent with those who relapsed, the non-relapsers were twice as likely to have a diagnosis of uni-polar depression at admission. We hypothesize that the depression is associated with hitting bottom, an indication that the client may be motivated to commit to major change. These outcomes compare very favorably with those of other adolescent treatment programs.     

Correlates of internalized homophobia and homosexual identity formation in a sample of gay men

Eighty-six behaviourally homosexual men, at various stages of homosexual identity formation (HIF), were participants in a study that examined correlates of internalized homophobia (IH) and HIF. Results indicated higher levels of internalized homophobia were correlated with lower stages of HIF. In addition, internalized homophobia was significantly related to lower levels of self-esteem, to lower levels of self-concepts of physical appearance and emotional stability, and to higher levels of sex guilt. Post hoc regression analysis revealed that perceived level of repression against homosexuals predicted internalized homophobia and sex-guilt, which were mediator variables to the resolution of HIF. This research supports theory, that suggests internalized homophobia is a major developmental difficulty in gay men.     

The Impact of Organizational Form on Gendered Labour Markets in Engineering and Law

It is well known that occupations are differentially gendered and explanations for such gendering usually focus on structure and process in the labour market. However little is known of the fine detail of the way in which labour markets perform for particular occupations in particular local contexts. This article is based on micro-sociological research on the professional labour markets for law and engineering professionals in the city of Hobart, Australia. It addresses a discrepancy in women's participation and promotion rates in each of these professions: the proportion of women in high positions in engineering matches their educational qualification rates while that in law is considerably lower than educational qualification rates would suggest. The paper proposes that the explanation can be found in the respective organizational patterns of the two professions. Engineering is practised in large-scale bureaucratic organizations where formal rules govern recruitment and promotion, where equal opportunities legislation literally applies, and where a strict separation is maintained between public and domestic spheres. By contrast, law is practised in collegial partnerships where informal judgements govern recruitment and promotion, where the letter of equal opportunities legislation need not be applied, and where advancement depends on the subordination of the domestic to the public sphere.     

Only sane: Autistic barriers in “boring” patients

This paper addresses needs of patients whom Winnicott called boring. Although often functioning well in the work world, they lack a rich inner life and a capacity for intimacy. Thus, psychotherapy is particularly problematic for them. To develop a model for working with this group of patients, the authors elaborate the concept of autistic barriers from British object relations theory, and suggest a changing role for the therapist in four successive phases of the treatment.