Interest rate setting at the ECB: Individual preferences and collective decision making

We investigate whether the members of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank take into account the specific economic conditions of their states of origin, to set the interest rates for the euro area. Testing the national-based view against the Europeanist perspective is a challenging issue, because voting inside the Governing Council is secret, and the final outcome depends both on the individual preferences and the procedures followed by the Governing Council to arrive at a decision. Accordingly, we model interest rate setting as a two-stage process: first, each member of the Governing Council sets his/her preferred rate, and next the Governing Council meets and decides the actual figure. Our empirical analysis shows that domestic developments play a major role in determining the preferred interest rate of the each member; and that some members exert agenda setting power, that precludes some interest rate policies to be considered at the meeting.     

Latin America: a new developmental welfare state model in the making?1

Latin America is emerging from a century of transformation – from a traditional agrarian to an urban industrial economy – where countries have taken diverse historical paths. Some have almost completed this transformation, others are taking early steps, and most are living through it. State‐led transition has followed two successive development strategies. From the 1920s to the 1980s, state developmentalism, for the most part, successfully assumed the twin challenges of economic and social progress. In the final decades of the century, Latin American states adopted the policies of the Washington consensus, which emphasized the importance of business in the framework of globalization, benefiting the affluent few. However, an unambiguous shift in direction has been taking place in Latin America since the 1997 economic crisis. This article suggests that a new developmental welfare state model is in the making. How will it evolve over the wider space of an increasingly integrated Latin America?     

School Bullying and Moral Reasoning Competence

To examine whether high moral reasoning competence of adolescents is associated with low levels of bullying, and to understand whether moral disengagement mediates or moderates this relationship, 925 German children ranging from 11 to 17 years of age (M = 14.18, SD = 1.21) completed questionnaires on moral reasoning competence and moral disengagement in surveys at three different schools. The children were classified according to their bullying role, based on a peer‐nomination procedure. Multinomial logistic regression analyses showed that moral reasoning competence negatively predicted whether a student took an aggressive role. Moral disengagement partially mediated this relationship. Corresponding effects for defenders and outsiders were not found. These results extend previous findings about the effect of moral reasoning on bullying in primary school. The implications for the prevention of bullying are discussed.     

Psychological Abuse in Young Couples: Risk Factors

ABSTRACT

In a study conducted at a major university in Spain, 648 university students between the ages of 17 and 23 years were assessed to identify the manifestations of psychological abuse prior to the consolidation of marital status (e.g., matrimony, start of cohabitation). To evaluate psychological abuse in the students’ intimate relationships, the authors created a Questionnaire on Psychological Abuse. Results show coercive patterns of interaction in the students’ dating relationships. Significant differences were found between men and women, with behavioral factors such as hostility, blaming, and abusive insistence. Future research is suggested that would permit changes in attitude and behavior to be introduced into dating relations.     

La escala «directiveness» de Ray y el autoritarismo

Resumen

La escala «directiveness» de Ray (1976) es uno de los instrumentos diseñados para la medición del autoritarismo. En este trabajo se estudia la relación de esta medida con el dogmatismo, orientación política, edad y sexo, variables de interés en el campo de las actitudes socio-políticas, los resultados obtenidos nos permiten concluir que la escala «directiveness» no es ütil para el fin pretendido. También se subraya la necesidad de proceder a un debate teórico más riguroso en torno al autoritarismo político.     

Influential Observations in the Functional Measurement Error Model

In this work we propose Bayesian measures to quantify the influence of observations on the structural parameters of the simple measurement error model (MEM). Different influence measures, like those based on q-divergence between posterior distributions and Bayes risk, are studied to evaluate the influence. A strategy based on the perturbation function and MCMC samples is used to compute these measures. The samples from the posterior distributions are obtained by using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and assuming specific proper prior distributions. The results are illustrated with an application to a real example modeled with MEM in the literature.     

Estimation of a finite population distribution function based on a linear model with unknown heteroscedastic errors

The authors consider a finite population ρ = {(Y_k, x_k), k = 1,…,N} conforming to a linear superpopulation model with unknown heteroscedastic errors, the variances of which are values of a smooth enough function of the auxiliary variable X for their nonparametric estimation. They describe a method of the Chambers‐Dunstan type for estimation of the distribution of {Y_k, k = 1,…, N} from a sample drawn from without replacement, and determine the asymptotic distribution of its estimation error. They also consider estimation of its mean squared error in particular cases, evaluating both the analytical estimator derived by “plugging‐in” the asymptotic variance, and a bootstrap approach that is also applicable to estimation of parameters other than mean squared error. These proposed methods are compared with some common competitors in simulation studies.     

Flexible spatio-temporal stationary variogram models

In this paper we propose a generalization of the Shapiro and Botha (1991) approach that allows one to obtain flexible spatio-temporal stationary variogram models. It is shown that if the weighted least squares criterion is chosen, the fitting of such models to pilot estimations of the variogram can be easily carried out by solving a quadratic programming problem. The work also includes an application to real data and a simulation study in order to illustrate the performance of the proposed space-time dependency modeling.     

Bayesian inference in a matrix normal dynamic linear model with unknown covariance matrices

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a matrix normal dynamic linear model when the variance and covariance matrices of its error terms are unknown and can be changing over time. Given that the analysis is not conjugate, we use simulation methods based on Monte Carlo Markov chains to estimate the parameters of the model. This analysis allows us to carry out a dynamic principal components analysis in a set of multivariate time series. Furthermore, it permits the treatment of series with different lengths and with missing data. The methodology is illustrated with two empirical examples: the value added distribution of the firms operating in the manufacturing sector of the countries participating in the BACH project, and the joint evolution of a set of international stock-market indices.