International income poverty measurement: which way now?

We critically review conceptual and empirical issues surrounding the derivation of the international poverty line, expressed in PPP-adjusted dollars and linked to various rounds of the International Comparison Program (ICP). We find that there are some limitations in the current estimation of these lines, but show that statistically superior methods lead to lines that are relatively robust and confirm the $1.25 using 2005 PPPs and suggest $1.67–1.71 using 2011 PPPs (or close to the $1.90 proposed by the World Bank if we follow the World Bank’s approach of adjusting inflation rates in some countries); they also roughly confirm the current shape of the proposed ‘weakly relative’ poverty line. Using the new absolute line based on 2011 PPPs would lead to substantially lower poverty in our estimation. The extent of the decline depends on whether and how one treats China, India, and Indonesia differently from other countries in the 2005 and 2011 PPPs. More seriously, we note that the dependence on successive ICP rounds creates conceptual and empirical problems that have become worse over time so that we suggest that it would be best to consider alternatives to the current reliance on ICP rounds and the resulting PPPs. As a short-term solution we propose to fix the international poverty line in national currencies using either the 2005 or 2011 level; in the medium term, we argue for global poverty measurement based on internationally coordinated national poverty measurement.     

Inference on Filtered and Smoothed Probabilities in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models

ABSTRACT

We derive a statistical theory that provides useful asymptotic approximations to the distributions of the single inferences of filtered and smoothed probabilities, derived from time series characterized by Markov-switching dynamics. We show that the uncertainty in these probabilities diminishes when the states are separated, the variance of the shocks is low, and the time series or the regimes are persistent. As empirical illustrations of our approach, we analyze the U.S. GDP growth rates and the U.S. real interest rates. For both models, we illustrate the usefulness of the confidence intervals when identifying the business cycle phases and the interest rate regimes.     

Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.     

Book reviews

New scholarship on rape in American history

Sex Without Consent: Rape and Sexual Coercion in America. Edited by Merril D. Smith. New York: New York University Press, 2001, 308 pages. Cloth, $60.00; paper, $19.50.

The enigma of sexual desire

Sexual Appetite, Desire and Motivation: Energetics of the Sexual System. Edited by Walter Everaerd, Ellen Laan, and Stephanie Both. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Knaw Edita, 2001, 156 pages. Paper, NLG 80.00, Euro 36.30.

American sex in the private and public sectors

Sex, Love, and Health in America: Private Choices and Public Policies. Edited by Edward O. Laumann and Robert T. Michael. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press, 2000, 535 pages. Hardcover, $48.

Enlarging the landscape of sexual pleasure

Good Sex: Feminist Perspectives from the World's Religions. Edited by Patricia Beattie Jung, Mary E. Hunt, and Radhika Balakrishnan. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2001, 220 pages. Cloth, $50.00; paper, $20.00.

Another stab at sexual theory

The Role of Theory in Sex Research. Edited by John Bancroft. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 2000, 366 pages. Cloth, $49.95.     

Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis

In this paper we consider testing that an economic time series follows a martingale difference process. The martingale difference hypothesis has typically been tested using information contained in the second moments of a process, that is, using test statistics based on the sample autocovariances or periodograms. Tests based on these statistics are inconsistent since they cannot detect nonlinear alternatives. In this paper we consider tests that detect linear and nonlinear alternatives. Given that the asymptotic distributions of the considered tests statistics depend on the data generating process, we propose to implement the tests using a modified wild bootstrap procedure. The paper theoretically justifies the proposed tests and examines their finite sample behavior by means of Monte Carlo experiments.     

Union use of employee pension funds: Introduction and overview

Summary and Conclusions A case can be made that labor unions are seeking to gain control of the financial leverage of employee pension funds as a means of offsetting a secular decline in membership which has occurred over the past twenty years and which has been accelerating. Pension fund assets are now substantial and are growing very rapidly so that even partial or indirect influence over investment policies could have major impacts on the economy. Unions have already achieved success on a limited scale with the pension fund weapon. Their intention to achieve widespread influence through this vehicle is signalled by the establishment in January, 1981, of a monthly newsletter,Labor & Investments which is devoted exclusively to the union use of employee pension funds. In sum, it is clear that the union use of employee pension funds is a very timely and significant topic. The papers that follow may not provide definitive answers to the many questions produced by this new initiative, but they do enhance our understanding of the issues involved.