The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it

We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.     

Whites’ Attitudes toward Immigrants and Immigration Policy: Are Multiracial Individuals a Source of Group Threat or Intergroup Contact?

This study uses multilevel modeling with data from the 2010 U.S. Census and the Pew Research Center’s 2006 and 2011 surveys to examine the relationship between the relative size of the multiracial population, specifically mixed-race whites, in metropolitan areas and the immigration attitudes of native-born non-Hispanic whites. The results indicate that whites who live in metropolitan areas with higher percentages of mixed-race whites are more likely to hold comparatively immigrant-friendly attitudes in general and specifically toward immigration levels, taxes, and employment, supporting contact theory. With increases in the multiracial population, whites are likely to adopt a more complex conception of race over time, leading to context-specific and topic-centered attitudes toward immigrants and immigration policy.     

Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON-model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON-model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 ( SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate  4.713 × 10⁻⁵; SD 1.466 × 10⁻⁵  ) compared to the normal population  (estimate 7.704 × 10⁻⁶; SD 5.414 × 10⁻⁶)  and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross-contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.     

Risk-Reducing Legal Documents: Controlling Personal Health and Financial Resources

Every adult can eliminate the risk of losing control of personal health decisions and financial resources by having a last will and testament, health proxy, power of attorney, and living trust. Yet evidence suggests that less than a majority of adult Americans have these documents. We surveyed 900 adult Americans (25 plus years old) to determine what factors predict the possession of these risk-reducing documents. In total, 46% had a living will and testament, 32% a durable power of attorney, 30% a health proxy, and 18% a living trust. Events that prompt people with wealth to secure these documents, such as increasing age, getting married, having children, and experiencing a life-threatening event were the strongest predictors of having a will. These were also among the strongest predictors of having a health proxy, along with a personal history of being proactive, and a family history that fostered trust of attorneys. Affluence, age, and education were the strongest predictors of having a living trust, and the strongest correlate of having a durable power of attorney was having faced a life-threatening event, positive experiences with attorneys, and higher educational achievement.     

F?rdern aktienkursbasierte Vergütungsinstrumente langfristig orientierte Unternehmensentscheidungen? Lehren aus der Kreditkrise

The question whether stock-based management incentives encourage long-term oriented management decisions is the topic of a controversial public debate. Also, the existing academic literature provides no clear picture, mainly due to endogeneity problems. In this paper, we reexamine the issue in the context of the recent credit crises, which allows us to solve the endogeneity problem. In the empirical analysis we find that firms, which have awarded stock-based incentives to their executives prior or during the financial crises, face substantially lower cuts in investment spending. These firms also show higher levels of R&D investments during the financial crises. Overall, our results suggest that stock based long-term incentives promote long-term oriented management decisions.     

Agency Problems between Managers and Employees in Nonprofit Organizations: A Discrete Choice Experiment

Most principal–agent literature of nonprofit organizations has focused on the relationship between board members and managers. However, in addition to the role as an agent of the board, the manager also performs a role as principal with respect to the nonprofit employees. By using a discrete choice experiment, we identify the objectives of managers and employees in nonprofit organizations and assess the presence of agency problems in this relationship. Our sample consists of 76 headmasters, 161 teachers, and 39 administrative employees in 74 secondary nonprofit schools in Belgium. We find that the six objectives set out in the experiment play an important role for both headmasters and subordinate staff. However, the results also indicate that some of these objectives are significantly more important for the headmasters. In sum, our results suggest that agency theory and stewardship theory are not necessarily in conflict with each other but can be combined into a more general governance framework for nonprofit organizations. Consequently, we argue that incentive structures that incorporate different types of objectives can facilitate the recruitment and retention of employees in nonprofit organizations.     

Validation of the 12 Item Short form Health Survey in a Sample from Region Central Jutland

In 2010 the Danish regions started a new program of public health surveillance in collaboration with the national and local health authorities using the short form health survey (SF-12) for measuring and reporting on health related quality of life among the Danish adult population. The instrument has not, however, been validated in a Danish setting. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability and validity of the physical component summary (PCS) and the mental component summary (MCS) score of the 12-item short form health survey (SF-12) in a sample from Central Denmark Region. A total of 26,397 persons above the age of 25 were included in the analyses. Reliability was assessed by Cronbach’s α. The validity was assessed using known-groups comparisons and convergent validity. The factor structure was investigated through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The Cronbach’s α showed high reliability with a score of 0.90 and 0.85 for PCS and MCS respectively. The SF-12 discriminated well with respect to gender, age, educational status and long term illness. Individual items correlated higher with own hypothesized scales than with other scales and summary measures corroborating the convergent validity. The EFA gave a two-factor structure. Irrespective of the chosen rotation method (varimax and oblimin) the items related to PCS loaded on one factor and the items related to MCS loaded on another factor. The factor structure was validated with acceptable model-fit values in CFA. The SF-12 instrument is a reliable and valid measure of health related quality of life among the population of Central Denmark Region.     

Drug addiction as a lifestyle

Drug addict rehabilitation programs receive a small proportion of the funds made available through the social welfare system. Emphasis has traditionally been placed on the pathological rather than the salutogenic elements of an addicted lifestyle. A new test of a person's sense of coherence in life (Antonovsky's 9-item Sense of Coherence scale) may be of interest in rehabilitation work with drug addicts, and in focusing more attention on this aspect of addiction treatment. Thirty drug addicts in treatment and rehabilitation and 10 former drug addicts were interviewed using the 9-item Sense of Coherence scale. The results obtained were compared to a well known test of distress, the 24-item Symptom Checklist. Drug addicts in treatment facilities had significantly lower mean scores on the 9-item Sense of Coherence scale (2.3) and higher scores on the 24-item Symptom Checklist (2.3) than both drug addicts in rehabilitatively oriented institutions (3.3 and 1.6) and the long-term rehabilitated non-using former drug addicts (4.2 and 1.5 respectively). The differences between the group in rehabilitation and the former drug addicts were also statistically significant. The levels of the two psychometric tests suggested a gradual movement towards normal values and an increased sense of meaning in life among the former drug addicts, contrary to findings by other researchers. The length of time before these tests return to normal values may exceed the observation period often used in follow-up at treatment facilities. Increased social welfare may follow if a disclosure of salutogenic possibilities in drug addicts is obtained. Further prospective research is, however, necessary to confirm our findings.     

Calculating the density and distribution function for the singly and doubly noncentral F

Simple, closed form saddlepoint approximations for the distribution and density of the singly and doubly noncentral F distributions are presented. Their overwhelming accuracy is demonstrated numerically using a variety of parameter values. The approximations are shown to be uniform in the right tail and the associated limitating relative error is derived. Difficulties associated with some algorithms used for exact computation of the singly noncentral F are noted.     

Racial identity, racial discrimination, perceived stress, and psychological distress among African American young adults

This study examines the direct and indirect relationships among racial identity, racial discrimination, perceived stress, and psychological distress in a sample of 555 African American young adults. A prospective study design was used to assess the influence of two dimensions of racial identity attitudes (i.e., centrality and public regard) on other study variables to investigate the relationship between racial identity attitudes and psychological distress. The results show some evidence of a direct relationship between racial centrality and psychological distress, as well as evidence of indirect relationships for both centrality and public regard through the impact of racial discrimination and perceived stress. In addition, racial centrality was both a risk factor for experiencing discrimination and a protective factor in buffering the negative impact of discrimination on psychological distress. Results are discussed within the context of identifying multiple pathways to psychological well-being for African American young adults within the context of racial discrimination.