Sociology and social policy: from a love-hate relationship with the state to cynicism and pragmatism

Les sociologues québécois ont été au coeur de ce que Ton a appelé la Révolution tranquille. lis ont inspiré des réformes, animé des projets et joué le rôle d'éminences grises auprés du gouvernement. Cependant, au milieu des années '70, plusieurs sont devenus de plus en plus critiques de l'intervention de l'État en matiére de politiques sociales: non seulement L'État n'a-t-il pas réussi à redistribuer les ressources des plus riches vers les plus pauvres, mail il a aussi paralysé l'action des groupes communautaires et des autres mouvements sociaux. Le présent article recense les publications sur l'État et les politiques sociales depuis 1975. Les auteurs concluent que les sociologues québécois sont de moins en moins intéressés par l'État, concentrant davantage leur attention sur les groupes en besoin.
Quebec's sociologists have been at the heart of the so-called Revolution tranquille. They have inspired reforms, animated projects and served as 'grey eminences' to the government. Yet, by the mid 1970s, many had grown intensely critical of state intervention in social policies: not only was the state incapable of really redistributing resources from the rich to the poor, but it was also paralysing the action of community groups and other social movements. In this article, the francophone literature on the state and social policy since 1975 is reviewed. The authors conclude that Québec sociologists have become less fixated on the state, and are beginning to turn their attention more and more to specific social groups in need.     

Road trafficking description and short term travel time forecasting,with a classification method

The purpose of this work is, on the one hand, to study how to forecast road trafficking on highway networks and, on the other hand, to describe future traffic events. Here, road trafficking is measured by vehicle velocities. The authors propose two methodologies. The first is based on an empirical classification method, and the second on a probability mixture model. They use an SAEM‐type algorithm (a stochastic approximation of the EM algorithm) to select the densities of the mixture model. Then, they test the validity of their methodologies by forecasting short term travel times.     

Toward a Phenomenological Framework for the Study of Work and Organizational Stress

In this article, elements from different stress models are embedded in a phenomenological framework for work and organization stress based on practical insights on the one hand and ideas and methods from ethology, microsociology, and cultural anthropology on the other. The framework is compatible with most of the existing research and theoretical views, and pays attention to some lacunas in these views. The central concept is integrity, i.e., the ways in which the process of situated individual functioning is organized in a niche, consisting of a limited set of situations. Integrity refers to the internal integration of individual functioning and the integration of the individual in his or her niche (and thereby in an organization and society at large). Integrity is a multileveled process with considerable individual variation, characterized by signification, morality, and individual experiences, which, with the help of four auxiliary verbs, can be analyzed in terms of individual options for action. Inadequate integrity may result from underdevelopment, decay, change, and intrusions by external events or an ongoing stress process. These can be described as (overlapping, and often coinciding) stress sources. In this respect, the framework makes a distinction between stressors that primarily affect the task itself and stressors that disturb the immediate environment of the task. All these stressors can be described as a matter of too much or too little on a great number of variables, of which usually only the medium range is conducive to adequate integrity. Lastly, attention is paid to stress reactions, which can act as stressors in their own right.     

Do people respond to low probability risks? Evidence from tornado risk and manufactured homes

Whether people perceive and respond to low-probability natural hazards is a research question of considerable policy relevance. We obtain evidence by considering the response of housing choice to tornado risk for manufactured homes. The vulnerability of manufactured housing, combined with its growing share of the U.S. housing market, has led to proposed mandates for community shelters in mobile home parks. Expected utility theory, however, predicts that households should account for tornado risk in their housing choice. We test for an effect of tornado risk on manufactured housing demand using cross-sectional state data, as well as counties in three tornado prone states. We find that people do respond to tornado risk; our estimates indicate that each expected annual state tornado death per million residents reduces demand for manufactured homes by about 3%. The estimated quantity effect is consistent with the market studies of the price elasticity of manufactured homes.     

Estimating herd-specific force of infection by using random-effects models for clustered binary data and monotone fractional polynomials

Summary.  In veterinary epidemiology, we are often confronted with hierarchical or clustered data. Typically animals are grouped within herds, and consequently we cannot ignore the possibility of animals within herds being more alike than between herds. Based on a serological survey of bovine herpes virus type 1 in cattle, we describe a method for the estimation of herd-specific rates at which susceptible animals acquire the infection at different ages. In contrast with the population-averaged force of infection, this method allows us to model the herd-specific force of infection, allowing investigation of the variability between herds. A random-effects approach is used to account for the correlation in the data, allowing us to study both population-averaged and herd-specific force of infection. In contrast, generalized estimating equations can be used when interest is only in the population-averaged force of infection. Further, a flexible predictor model is needed to describe the dependence of covariates appropriately. Fractional polynomials as proposed by Royston and Altman offer such flexibility. However, the flexibility of this model should be restricted, since only positive forces of infection have a meaningful interpretation.     

Modelling forces of infection by using monotone local polynomials

Summary. On the basis of serological data from prevalence studies of rubella, mumps and hepatitis A, the paper describes a flexible local maximum likelihood method for the estimation of the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection at different ages. In contrast with parametric models that have been used before in the literature, the local polynomial likelihood method allows this age-dependent force of infection to be modelled without making any assumptions about the parametric structure. Moreover, this method allows for simultaneous nonparametric estimation of age-specific incidence and prevalence. Unconstrained models may lead to negative estimates for the force of infection at certain ages. To overcome this problem and to guarantee maximal flexibility, the local smoother can be constrained to be monotone. It turns out that different parametric and nonparametric estimates of the force of infection can exhibit considerably different qualitative features like location and the number of maxima, emphasizing the importance of a well-chosen flexible statistical model.     

Comprehensive definitions of breakdown points for independent and dependent observations

Summary. We provide a new definition of breakdown in finite samples, with an extension to asymptotic breakdown. Previous definitions centre on defining a critical region for either the parameter or the objective function. If for a particular outlier configuration the critical region is entered, breakdown is said to occur. In contrast with the traditional approach, we leave the definition of the critical region implicit. Our proposal encompasses previous definitions of breakdown in linear and non-linear regression settings. In some cases, it leads to a different and more intuitive notion of breakdown than other procedures that are available. An important advantage of our new definition is that it also applies to models for dependent observations where current definitions of breakdown typically fail. We illustrate our suggestion by using examples from linear and non-linear regression, and time series.     

Mechanisms of Visual Object Recognition in Infancy: Five‐Month‐Olds Generalize Beyond the Interpolation of Familiar Views

This work examined predictions of the interpolation of familiar views (IFV) account of object recognition performance in 5‐month‐olds. Infants were familiarized to an object either from a single viewpoint or from multiple viewpoints varying in rotation around a single axis. Object recognition was then tested in both conditions with the same object rotated around a novel axis. Infants in the multiple‐views condition recognized the object, whereas infants in the single‐view condition provided no evidence for recognition. Under the same 2 familiarization conditions, infants in a 2nd experiment treated as novel an object that differed in only 1 component from the familiar object. Infants' object recognition is enhanced by experience with multiple views, even when that experience is around an orthogonal axis of rotation, and infants are sensitive to even subtle shape differences between components of similar objects. In general, infants' performance does not accord with the predictions of the IFV model of object recognition. These findings motivate the extension of future research and theory beyond the limits of strictly interpolative mechanisms.     

Censored time series analysis with autoregressive moving average models

The authors consider time series observations with data irregularities such as censoring due to a detection limit. Practitioners commonly disregard censored data cases which often result in biased estimates. The authors present an attractive remedy for handling autocorrelated censored data based on a class of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models. In particular, they introduce an imputation method well suited for fitting ARMA models in the presence of censored data. They demonstrate the effectiveness of their technique in terms of bias, efficiency, and information loss. They also describe its adaptation to a specific context of meteorological time series data on cloud ceiling height, which are measured subject to the detection limit of the recording device.