Arbeitslos oder erwerbsunfähig?

An international comparison of unemployment rates suggests a poor performance of the German labour market. Based on comparative analyses for Germany, the Netherlands, France, Denmark, the UK and the United States the paper tries to show that a more sophisticated picture can be drawn by taking additional forms of non-employment (e.g. disability, retirement or out of labour force) into account. For this purpose data from the “European Social Survey” (ESS) and the survey “Citizenship, Involvement and Democracy” collected in 2004 and 2005 is analysed. While “unemployment” plays a dominant role in Germany, people with comparable demographic characteristics and similar health status are increasingly classified as “permanently disabled” in the other countries. The results stress that an international comparison of labour market performance and especially a comparison of the effectiveness of labour market and social policy reforms should not only rely on employment and unemployment rates. Taking alternative forms of non-employment into account can increase our knowledge and understanding of functional differences of labour markets in Europe and the United States.     

Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti’s betting-odds method to prospect theory

This paper extends de Finetti’s betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti’s method is so transparent that decision makers can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day’s performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations of rank dependence.

Modernizing social security: Changing responsibilities and individual choice

Social security needs to be reformed to make it sustainable. We argue that it is necessary to consider not only system characteristics (such as the level and duration of benefits, insured population), but also the division of responsibilities. Social security is not solely a state matter; firms, trade unions, industrial sectors and the individual play a role as well. As social risks are to some extent endogenous, insurance ought to be taken care of at the level at which the risk can be most directly influenced in order to improve efficiency. This may partly take place within the public system, for example through risk rating. Alternatives would include shifting from collective to more individual arrangements, prominent examples being multipillar systems and savings accounts. Multipillar systems mainly imply a new division of responsibilities, taking the endogeneity of social risks and the implications of modern life cycles into account. At the same time they offer more individual choice. Savings accounts reduce moral hazard without affecting individual choice. Either way, in reforming social security a balance needs to be found between competing goals or principles: between equity and efficiency, between solidarity and freedom of choice, between the risks of moral hazard and adverse selection. This choice is difficult because social security is not only about "security". It is an important part of the way we organize our society and embodies many of society's values.     

Neoliberalism,Inequality and Politics: The Changing Face of Australia

Since the early 1980s Australian public policy has undergone the most major transformation since Federation. This transformation has been underwritten by two key principles: liberalism – the view that citizens are autonomous individual actors whose interests are best served when they are free from coercive government interventions into individual action; and marketisation – the belief that free markets are arenas which best enable individual autonomy and produce efficient economic outcomes. These principles define ‘neoliberalism’ or ‘hard liberalism‘. After summarising the major policy changes identified with neoliberalism in Australia, the paper introduces a new research project that examines its impact on socioeconomic inequality, gender inequality and politics and culture. Inspection of relevant data indicates that there are important trends in inequality, public opinion and political behaviour that warrant this investigation.     

Dashed Hopes,Dashed Selves? A Sociometer Perspective on Self‐esteem Change Across the Transition to Secondary School

The transition from primary to secondary school challenges children's psychological well‐being. A cross‐transitional longitudinal study (N = 306; mean age = 12.2 years) examined why some children's self‐esteem decreases across the transition whereas other children's self‐esteem does not. Children's expected social acceptance in secondary school was measured before the transition; their actually perceived social acceptance was measured after the transition. Self‐esteem and Big Five personality traits were measured both pre‐ and posttransition. Self‐esteem changed as a function of the discrepancy between children's expected and actually perceived social acceptance. Furthermore, neuroticism magnified self‐esteem decreases when children's ‘hopes were dashed'—when they experienced disappointing levels of social acceptance. These findings provide longitudinal support for sociometer theory across the critical transition to secondary school.     

Socially Anxious Children at Risk for Victimization: The Role of Personality

This study examines whether Big Five personality traits affect the extent to which a socially anxious child will be victimized. A total of 1814 children participated in the study (mean age = 11.99 years). Children completed self‐reports and peer reports of victimization, which were aggregated, and self‐reports of social anxiety and Big Five personality traits. A regression analysis was performed to study the moderating effect of personality traits on the relation between social anxiety and victimization. Socially anxious children scoring high on extraversion are less at risk for victimization than socially anxious children scoring low on extraversion. In addition, socially anxious boys scoring high on agreeableness were less at risk for victimization than socially anxious boys scoring low on agreeableness. Conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness to experience did not moderate the relation between social anxiety and victimization.     

Sind Lehrerinnen für den geringeren Schulerfolg von Jungen verantwortlich?

Since the beginning of the 1990s we find that girls are increasingly more successful in german schools than boys. Simultaneous to this development the share of female teachers in the school system has gradually grown. This feminisation of the teacher profession is said to have led to a feminisation of schools, resulting in girls achieving better academic results than boys. This relatively old thesis has rarely been empirically examined and the results of such attempts have been inconsistent. Drawing on data from the ELEMENT-study conducted in Berlin elementary schools between 2003 and 2005, this paper examines, whether boys' competencies in math and reading develop worse, whether they receive lower grades and whether they are less frequently recommended for the Gymnasium when there is a high share of female teachers at the school. The results show that boys do indeed receive lower grades in mathematics and are consequently recommended for the Gymnasium minimal less frequently in schools with a high share of female teachers as compared to schools with a lower share of female teachers. Girls, on the other hand, have higher reading competencies in schools with a high share of female teachers.     

Principal stratum strategy: Potential role in drug development

A randomized trial allows estimation of the causal effect of an intervention compared to a control in the overall population and in subpopulations defined by baseline characteristics. Often, however, clinical questions also arise regarding the treatment effect in subpopulations of patients, which would experience clinical or disease related events post-randomization. Events that occur after treatment initiation and potentially affect the interpretation or the existence of the measurements are called intercurrent events in the ICH E9(R1) guideline. If the intercurrent event is a consequence of treatment, randomization alone is no longer sufficient to meaningfully estimate the treatment effect. Analyses comparing the subgroups of patients without the intercurrent events for intervention and control will not estimate a causal effect. This is well known, but post-hoc analyses of this kind are commonly performed in drug development. An alternative approach is the principal stratum strategy, which classifies subjects according to their potential occurrence of an intercurrent event on both study arms. We illustrate with examples that questions formulated through principal strata occur naturally in drug development and argue that approaching these questions with the ICH E9(R1) estimand framework has the potential to lead to more transparent assumptions as well as more adequate analyses and conclusions. In addition, we provide an overview of assumptions required for estimation of effects in principal strata. Most of these assumptions are unverifiable and should hence be based on solid scientific understanding. Sensitivity analyses are needed to assess robustness of conclusions.     

A SPATIAL PERSPECTIVE ON EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: HETEROGENEOUS WELFARE AND MIGRATION EFFECTS FROM THE SINGLE MARKET AND THE BREXIT

We use a quantitative model to study the implications of European integration for welfare and net migration flows across 1,280 European regions. The model suggests that an increase of trade barriers to the level of 1957 reduces welfare by about 5%–8% on average, depending on the presumed trade elasticity. However, remote regions may face initial welfare losses of up to 10%. These heterogeneous welfare effects cause estimated net migration of 1.9% of the population to the European geographic center implying that the dismantling of trade barriers in Europe has led to a more homogeneous spatial distribution of economic activity. With regard to the Brexit, we find moderate welfare losses for the United Kingdom of 1.05% in the most pessimistic scenario while continental Europe's welfare declines by 0.41%. (JEL F15, R12, R13, R23)