Temporal aggregation of cyclical models with business cycle applications

This paper focuses on temporal aggregation of the cyclical component model as introduced by Harvey (1989). More specifically, it provides the properties of the aggregate process for any generic period of aggregation. As a consequence, the exact link between aggregate and disaggregate parameters can be easily derived. The cyclical model is important due to its relevance in the analysis of business cycle. Given this, two empirical applications are presented in order to compare the estimated parameters of the quarterly models for German and US gross domestic products with those of the corresponding models aggregated to annual frequency.     

Predicting case conviction and domestic violence recidivism: measuring the deterrent effects of conviction and protection order violations

Previous research offered little guidance on sentencing outcomes for protection order (PO) violations in cases of domestic assault and whether PO violation charges affected offender recidivism rates. Using data from local court records, this study examined the effect of PO violation charges on the odds of case conviction relative to dismissal, and whether case conviction or a PO violation charge results in lower domestic violence rearrest rates compared to offenders not receiving these sanctions. The models indicate that PO violation charges has no significant effect on the odds of conviction or recidivism rates, and these trends were not significantly different for convicted versus dismissed offenders. Findings are discussed in relation to previous research with recommendations for future areas of study.     

Leafy spanning k-forests

Journal of Combinatorial Optimization - We denote by Leafy  Spanning $$k$$ -Forest the problem of, given a positive integer k and a graph G with at most k components,...     

赣商慈善特点与思想探究

赣商作为中国商人重要分支,自古至今热衷于慈善,为江西和全国慈善事业做出了积极贡献。对其进行深入研究,能够为构建当代慈善文化提供思想资源。本文阐述了古代赣商和现代赣商的慈善特点,分析了赣商慈善活动的思想基础和行为动机,最后针对当前的现状,提出赣商由商人向慈善家转身的若干设想。     

Pension reforms and gender: The case of Sweden

This article analyzes the effects of pension reform for men and women by comparing the outcomes in the system after reform to the outcomes under the prior system. The authors also study the incentive effects on labor supply. The size of the labor force, however, is also influenced by the rules for retirement, social insurance programs (e.g., sickness insurance and unemployment insurance), collective bargaining agreements, and seniority rules. Using a simulation model, the authors compare women's pension benefits and contributions to those of men in the new Swedish system and in the old. The analysis includes simulating the wage and employment histories of representative men and women and the pension benefits these are likely to generate under the old and new rules. After showing the results of this model, the authors describe and discuss the supplementary pension systems, that is, the negotiated collective agreement schemes and different pathways to retirement. Based on empirical evidence from Swedish and Latin America simulated data, the final section of the article discusses gender impact of pension rules and how to design pension, systems to ensure adequate pension benefits for both women and men.     

Labor Migration between Developing Countries: The Case of Paraguay and Argentina1

Despite the historical and numerical importance of international migration between Paraguay and Argentina, the socioeconomic forces affecting the dynamics of the flow remain largely unexplored. This article contributes to the understanding of migration movements between the Latin American countries by analyzing patterns of labor migration from two Paraguayan communities to Argentina. The analysis separates the process of migration into four segments representing different migration decisions that Paraguayan men face throughout their life course: first trip, first return, recurrent trips, and duration of additional trips. Results confirm that Paraguayan migration to Argentina is closely related to individual characteristics and wealth, the extent of migrant networks and experience, and changes in macroeconomic conditions. The relative importance of these factors on migration varies depending on the aspect of migration under consideration. More generally, the analysis shows that unlike migration between Mexico and the United States, Paraguayan migrants to Argentina tend to be positively selected with respect to educational attainment and skills. This reflects the higher transferability of skills between the two countries and the absence of large urban centers attracting internal migrants in Paraguay. In addition, results show that migration between Paraguay and Argentina is very responsive to fluctuations in macroeconomic conditions, particularly income differentials and peso over‐valuation. Government policies oriented towards the regulation of migration flows in the Southern Cone should pay closer attention to the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on migration decisions, especially in the context of the Mercosur agreement.     

利用瞬态质量流量脉冲监测天然气管道堵塞

针对低温、高速流动、搅动的影响使天然气在管道中易形成水合物而堵塞管道的问题，提出了利用管道入口处人工产生的质量流量脉冲在堵塞的天然气管道中的传播特点，采用时间分裂算法和TVD/Godunov混合格式对非完全堵塞管线进行数值模拟，通过分析管线入口处的压力波动历史曲线来确定天然气管线的堵塞位置、堵塞长度、堵塞强度。为在管道堵塞的初期精确检测到堵塞的位置和长度，制定正确的清管操作方案，降低管线完全堵塞的风险提供了方法技术。对油气储运具有重要意义。     

Trade Balance and Income Shocks: Experience of Transition Economies

This paper investigates the major sources of changes in the trade balance of four Central European and three Baltic transition economies with an emphasis on the difference between permanent and transitory disturbances to income. In all seven countries the findings support the hypothesis that transitory disturbances to income are the main determinants of changes in the trade balance. These results seem to be fairly consistent with inter-temporal models of trade balance, which view transitory shocks to income as the main source of variations in the trade balance. These results do not seem to support the view that productivity shocks alone generate most of the variation in the trade balance.      

Reactions to Morphological Deviance: A Comparison of Japanese and American Children and Adolescents

Fifth and eleventh graders in the United States (n = 175) and Japan (n = 257) were asked to describe and explain their reactions to obesity and facial disfigurement, both as a deviant member (one having these forms of morphological deviance) and as an interactant member (a normal child interacting with the deviant peer) of a group of 5 children. In the obesity scenario, the group was going shopping for clothes. In the facial disfigurement scenario, the group was having their photographs taken for the school yearbook. In both cultures for both scenarios, negative emotions predominated when students took the deviant role. As interactants, more Japanese than American respondents expressed positive and inclusive attitudes toward the deviant child. Developmental differences varied by culture. Most notable was the tendency of Japanese eleventh graders to become similar to their American counterparts in their decreasing willingness to participate with, include, and be influenced by their peers. Results are discussed in terms of Goffman's (1963) model of 'stigma' and the individualism-collectivism paradigm.     

多西他赛联合CBP治疗晚期老年非小细胞肺癌疗效分析

目的观察多西他赛联合CBP治疗晚期老年非小细胞肺癌的疗效及毒副作用。方法34例晚期老年肺癌采用多西他赛联合卡铂方案治疗2～3周期,按照WHO标准进行评价。结果34例中CR0例,PR14例,NC12例,PD6例,总有效率（RR）为41.18%（14/34）;初治组RR为57.14%（3/7）;复治组RR为40.74%（11/27）。两组RR比较差异有统计学意义,P=0.04。结论多西他赛联合卡铂治疗晚期老年肺癌疗效确切,毒副作用可以耐受,可广泛应用。