Multivariate geostatistical mapping of radioactive contamination in the Maddalena Archipelago (Sardinia, Italy): spatial special issue

To improve the quality of prediction of radioactive contamination, geostatistical methods, and in particular multivariate geostatistical models, are increasingly being used. These methods, however, are optimal only in the case in which the data may be assumed Gaussian and do not properly cope with data measurements that are discrete, nonnegative or show some degree of skewness. To deal with these situations, here we consider a hierarchical model in which non-Gaussian variables of different kind are handled simultaneously. We show that when observations are assumed to be conditionally distributed as Poisson and Gamma, variograms and cross-variograms have convenient simple forms, and estimation of the parameters of the model can be carried out by Monte Carlo EM. This work was inspired by radioactive contamination data from the Maddalena Archipelago (Sardinia, Italy).     

Bayesian outlier testing using the predictive distribution for a linear model op constant intraclass form

The problem of testing suspected outliers from a linear model with constant intraclass correlation is considered from a Bayesian viewpoint. The main objective of this paper is to develop an outlier test procedure based on the predictive distribution of suspected outlier observations given a set of existing inlier observations. The test procedure is easily performed with the usual F and t distributions.     

The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations

Several important economic time series are recorded on a particular day every week. Seasonal adjustment of such series is difficult because the number of weeks varies between 52 and 53 and the position of the recording day changes from year to year. In addition certain festivals, most notably Easter, take place at different times according to the year. This article presents a solution to problems of this kind by setting up a structural time series model that allows the seasonal pattern to evolve over time and enables trend extraction and seasonal adjustment to be carried out by means of state-space filtering and smoothing algorithms. The method is illustrated with a Bank of England series on the money supply.     

Resource management schemes

Every large management organization undergoes the cyclic progress of planning, programming, budgeting, and rating of work tasks of projects to be accomplished by priority in the light of resource constraints controlling personnel strenghts and operating funds by fiscal periods. This is true, especially of governmental departments that are commodity oriented. There must be some ultimate goal of fine grain visibility that management can attempt to achieve or at least approach in order for the functional directors within the organization structure to relate and report most readily to provide required data for proficient resource management. Two essential requirements are visibility and integrated reporting as herein prescribed. Following the ascertainment of resource requirements in the light of projected work effort, some logical procedure should be employed in the rationale of resource adjustments. The Tolerance Box technique is herein described.     

Labour Force Transitions among Married Women in the USA

This paper describes the patterns of labour market transitions for a cohort of married women in the USA drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey and observed between 1968 and 1991. The empirical analysis of labour market movements is motivated by human capital theory augmented by demographic and life-cycle considerations. These movements are investigated by estimating competing risk models of labour force spell duration. The results show that the determinants of spell lengths and the determinants of the reasons for spell terminations vary across labour market states. More importantly, both the labour market state in which an individual is observed over her work cycle and the labour market state to which she moves are relevant in shaping her spell length and her tradeable characteristics in the labour market.     

A Game–Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

The goal of this paper is to probe the validity of the fiscal theory of the price level by modelling explicitly the market structure in which households and the government make their decisions. I describe the economy as a game, and I am thus able to state precisely the consequences of actions that are out of the equilibrium path. I show that there exist government strategies that lead to a version of the fiscal theory, in which the price level is determined by fiscal variables alone. These strategies are however more complex than the simple budgetary rules usually associated with the fiscal theory, and the government budget constraint cannot be merely viewed as an equilibrium condition.     

Intervention Research as Management Research in Practice: Learning from a Case in the Fashion Design Industry

Research in the field of management and organizational sciences has yielded a deeper understanding of many emerging business issues. However, the relevance of the contributions has been increasingly criticized, in both the academic and public spheres. We propose the intervention research approach – originally developed by the research group at Ecole des Mines de Paris – as a design science approach able to address both the relevance gap issue and the growing complexity of management practice. It is argued that increasing our understanding of management requires research that is more insightful, influential and immediately applicable. This in turn requires closer collaboration between management and researchers during the inquiry process, which is not always easy to achieve. An illustrative case study of an intervention research project focusing on creativity, conducted in Italy in collaboration with a fashion company, demonstrates how intervention research can be rigorous and relevant to practitioners, and how it can advance theoretical knowledge in management science.     

A POLITICAL ECONOMY THEORY OF FISCAL POLICY AND UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper presents a political economy theory of fiscal policy and unemployment. The underlying economy is one in which unemployment can arise but can be mitigated by tax cuts and increases in public production. Such policies are fiscally costly, but can be financed by issuing government debt. Policy decisions are made by a legislature consisting of representatives from different political districts. With the available policies, it is possible for the government to completely eliminate unemployment in the long run. However, with political decision making, the economy always has unemployment. Unemployment is higher when the private sector experiences negative shocks. When these shocks occur, the government employs debt‐financed fiscal stimulus plans which involve both tax cuts and public production increases. When the private sector is healthy, the government contracts debt until it reaches a floor level. Unemployment levels are weakly increasing in the economy's debt level, strictly so when the private sector experiences negative shocks. Conditional on the level of workers employed, the mix of public and private output is distorted.     

The Cyclical Volatility of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies: Evidence From Italy

In this study, we explore the fluctuations of unemployment and vacancies in the Italian labour market over the last 20 years. Relying on the available sources of data for unfilled job openings, we find that even in Italy, similarly to other developed countries, there is a clean evidence of the unemployment volatility puzzle. In other words, we empirically assess that the tightness indicator is significantly more volatile than productivity over the whole period. In addition, on the theoretical ground, we show that a matching model with segmented labour markets and on‐the‐job search has the potential to provide a rationale for this pattern.     

Eco-efficient supply chain networks: development of a design framework and application to a real case study

This paper presents a supply chain network design framework that is based on multi-objective mathematical programming and that can identify ‘eco-efficient’ configuration alternatives that are both efficient and ecologically sound. This work is original in that it encompasses the environmental impact of both transportation and warehousing activities. We apply the proposed framework to a real-life case study (i.e. Lindt & Sprüngli) for the distribution of chocolate products. The results show that cost-driven network optimisation may lead to beneficial effects for the environment and that a minor increase in distribution costs can be offset by a major improvement in environmental performance. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge on eco-efficient supply chain design and closes the missing link between model-based methods and empirical applied research. It also generates insights into the growing debate on the trade-off between the economic and environmental performance of supply chains, supporting organisations in the eco-efficient configuration of their supply chains.