Notes and Communications “A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL”: A COMMENT*

Janssen and Daniel analyzed the choice between a one- or a two-point conversion for a particular game situation in college football. Their decision criteria was maximum expected utility based on a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function defined over the games outcomes. An alternative approach based on a stochastic dominance criterion is presented that does not rely on knowledge of the relative importance of tying vs. winning; rather, it relies on a notion of consistency in the sequential problem.     

A NOTE ON HOLDING COSTS AND LOT-SIZE ERRORS

This note examines the sensitivity of the basic economic-order-quantity inventory model to lot-size errors when holding costs are assumed to be a strictly increasing (though not necessarily linear) function of average inventory. In particular, we show that the penalty associated with ordering either too much or too little is a function not only of the size of the error but of the shape of the holding-cost curve as well. We demonstrate that, under certain conditions, even relatively small lot-size errors can be extremely costly.     

A DISCRETE DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR MADE-TO-ORDER COST ANALYSIS

A model is presented that yields optimal production rates for a firm producing a contracted order. The model is unique in that it considers the influence of production rate and learning on total program cost. An application to the specific characteristics of two military production programs is presented. As demonstrated by the application, models of this type may be used as decision-making tools when negotiating the cost impact of contract modifications.     

Young Adult Gambling Behaviors and their Relationship with the Persistence of ADHD

Young adulthood is a period renowned for engagement in impulsive and risky behaviors, including gambling. There are some indications that young adults exhibit higher gambling rates in comparison to older adults. Problem gambling has also been linked to ADHD. This longitudinal study examines the relationship between gambling and ADHD among an epidemiological sample of young adults (n = 235; males = 179, females = 56) aged 18-24. Results indicate that individuals who report childhood ADHD symptoms which persist into young adulthood experience greater gambling problem severity than participants with no ADHD or those with non-persistent ADHD.     

Effects of a Punitive Environment on Children's Executive Functioning: A Natural Experiment

Few studies have examined the influence of environmental factors on children's executive functioning (EF) performance. The present study examined the effects of a punitive vs. non‐punitive school environment on West African children's EF skills. Tasks included a ‘cool’ (relatively non‐affective) and ‘hot’ (relatively affective/motivational) version of three EF tasks: delay of gratification; gift delay; and dimensional change card sort. Children had more difficulties with the hot versions of the tasks than the cool versions, and older children outperformed younger children. After controlling for verbal ability (Peabody picture vocabulary test‐third edition), a consistent pattern of interaction between school and grade level emerged. Overall, kindergarten children in the punitive school performed no differently than their counterparts in the non‐punitive school. However, in grade 1, children in the punitive school performed significantly worse than their counterparts in the non‐punitive school. These results point to the need to consider interactions among discipline style, age, and internalization processes of self‐regulation to better understand environmental influences on EF development.     

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.     

Beratungsforschung mit,für oder ohne die Praxis?

This article deals with the extent to which consulting research and consulting practice are pulling in the same direction or whether the gap between them still seems insurmountable. Therefore we examine the literature on consulting research, report what kind of research coaching practitioners would consider beneficial and introduce first findings from an empirical survey in which coaching practitioners were asked about their motivation for—or against—taking part in coaching research.     

"Choice" in Filial Care Work: Moving beyond a Dichotomy

Les auteures analysent le concept du «choix>> dans le travail des aidants naturels filiaux. Dans la documentation théorique et empirique sur le travail des aidants naturels, une dichotomie entre le «choix>> et l'«obligation>> est considérée comme une construction sociale. Néanmoins, cette dichotomie ne reflète pas adéquatement les expériences familiales de fourniture de soins; par exemple, le choix et l'obligation ne constituent pas des motivations mutuellement exclusives. Ils sont plutôt «relationnels>>, «contextuels>> et manifestes dans l'interaction entre des macro et des microcontextes. La dichotomie choix-obligation est également idéologique. Sur le plan de la politique morale, elle fait la promotion du déchargement de la responsabilité des gouvernements sur les familles, elle obscurcit la complexité des relations filiales et peut même promouvoir l'ambivalence psychologique.
In this paper, we discuss the concept of "choice" in filial care work. A dichotomy between choice and obligation is constructed in theoretical and empirical literature on filial care work. However, this dichotomy does not adequately reflect family caregiving experiences; for instance, choice and obligation are not mutually exclusive motivations. Rather, choice and obligation are "relational" and "contextual" and manifest in the interaction between macro- and micro-contexts. The choice-obligation dichotomy is also ideological. At the moral-political level, it promotes the downloading of responsibility by governments to family, obscures the complexity of filial relationships, and may even promote psychological ambivalence.