Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

Redressing Inequity in Parent Care Among Siblings

When inequities occur in the division of labor among adult siblings caring for older parents, conflict may result. This paper uses equity theory as a framework for understanding the processes used by siblings to rectify imbalances in their parental responsibilities. The study is based on a sample of 40 focus group participants who described caregiving relationships among siblings. Consistent with equity theory, these participants used two approaches to redress inequities in their sibling caregiving relationships: requesting behavioral changes from siblings and making cognitive changes. The findings suggest that these two approaches can result in more perceived equity but may also lead to even greater perceived inequity and distress.     

Flood Risk Perceptions and Insurance Choice: Do Decisions in the Floodplain Reflect Overoptimism?

In the presence of rare disasters, risk perceptions may not always align with actual risks. These perceptions can nevertheless influence an individual's willingness to mitigate risks through activities such as purchasing flood insurance. In a survey of Maryland floodplain residents, we find that stated risk perceptions predict voluntary flood insurance take‐up, while perceptions themselves varied widely among surveyed residents, owing in large part to differences in past flood experience. We use a formal test for overoptimism in risk perceptions and find that, on aggregate, floodplain residents are overly optimistic about flood risks.     

Are they lonely at the top? Social relationships and social support among Australian managers

This research tested the possibility that managers may be lonely at the top. A total of 572 Australian managers responded to a questionnaire-based survey. Results showed that social support was more frequently available from non-work relationships than from work relationships. The support available from work and non-work sources was also qualitatively different. Workplace relationships offered mainly distraction, whereas non-work sources also offered care, acceptance, and consolation. Within the workplace, co-workers were the primary source of support. Moreover, support for work stressors was received from within the workplace, or from a spouse or partner. However, support was seldom received from within the workplace for non-work stressors. Concerns about social relationships also contributed to most of the nominated stressful situations.     

Community councils as a medium for public participation: a case study in Grampian region

Planning authorities in Scotland are obliged to consult the public before finalising policies and proposals to be included in their development plans. Community councils are intended to operate as ‘the voice of a neighbourhood’ and this paper analyses an attempt by a regional planning authority to use community councils as a vehicle for consulting the public in the preparation of a structure plan for a rural area. The paper concludes that the attempt was unsuccessful because the community councils were not clear about the role they were expected to play; nor were they adequately prepared for their role. The authors believe, however, that the involvement of community councils has potential for promoting greater public participation in the preparation of development plans.     

Likelihood and higher-order approximations to tail areas: A review and annotated bibliography

Recent developments in higher-order asymptotic theory for statistical inference have emphasized the fundamental role of the likelihood function in providing accurate approximations to cumulative distribution functions. This paper summarizes the main results, with an emphasis on classes of problems for which relatively easily implemented solutions exist. A survey of the literature indicates the large number of problems solved and solvable by this method. Generalizations and extensions, with suggestions for further development, are considered.     

Why some Conferences are Difficult: a Study of the Professionals' Experience of Some Initial Child Protection Conferences

The views of 261 professionals attending 36 initial child protection conferences with parental participation were collected by means of a questionnaire. Overall, the professionals found the involvement of parents beneficial to the consideration of risk and the decision-making process, with some provisos. The data revealed that most of the negative responses arose from one third of the conferences, and that these conferences shared particular features relating to family profile and certain conference characteristics. The nature of the difficulties is identified and explored, especially with regard to the ambiguities and the uncertainties involved in risk assessments which contributed to the professionals, negative experiences, and which seemed to be heightened by the parents' presence.