A Sales Forecast Model for Short‐Life‐Cycle Products: New Releases at Blockbuster

We develop, in this article, a sales model for movie and game products at Blockbuster. The model assumes that there are three sales components: the first is from consumers who have already committed to purchasing (or renting) a product (e.g., based on promotion of, or exposure to, the product prior to its launch); the second comes from consumers who are potential buyers of the product; and the third comes from either a networking effect on closely tied (as in a social group) potential buyers from previous buyers (in the case of movie rental and all retail products) or re‐rents (in the case of game rental). In addition, we explicitly formulate into our model dynamic interactions between these sales components, both within and across sales periods. This important feature is motivated by realism, and it significantly contributes to the accuracy of our model. The model is thoroughly tested against sales data for rental and retail products from Blockbuster. Our empirical results show that the model offers excellent fit to actual sales activity. We also demonstrate that the model is capable of delivering reasonable sales forecasts based solely on environmental data (e.g., theatrical sales, studio, genre, MPAA ratings, etc.) and actual first‐period sales. Accurate sales forecasts can lead to significant cost savings. In particular, it can improve the retail operations at Blockbuster by determining appropriate order quantities of products, which is critical in effective inventory management (i.e., it can reduce the extent of over‐stocking and under‐stocking). While our model is developed specifically for product sales at Blockbuster, we believe that with context‐dependent modifications, our modeling approach could also provide a reasonable basis for the study of sales for other short‐Life‐Cycle products.     

Task Trade Between Similar Countries

We propose a theory of task trade between countries that have similar relative factor endowments and technological capabilities, but may differ in size. Firms produce differentiated goods by performing a continuum of tasks, each of which generates local spillovers. Tasks can be performed at home or abroad, but offshoring entails costs that vary by task. In equilibrium, the tasks with the highest offshoring costs may not be traded. Among the remainder, those with the relatively higher offshoring costs are performed in the country that has the higher wage and the higher aggregate output. We discuss the relationship between equilibrium wages, equilibrium outputs, and relative country size.     

Constrained Efficiency in the Neoclassical Growth Model With Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Shocks

We investigate the welfare properties of the one‐sector neoclassical growth model with uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks. We focus on the notion of constrained efficiency used in the general equilibrium literature. Our characterization of constrained efficiency uses the first‐order condition of a constrained planner's problem. This condition highlights the margins of relevance for whether capital is too high or too low: the factor composition of income of the (consumption‐)poor. Using three calibrations commonly considered in the literature, we illustrate that there can be either over‐ or underaccumulation of capital in steady state and that the constrained optimum may or may not be consistent with a nondegenerate long‐run distribution of wealth. For the calibration that roughly matches the income and wealth distribution, the constrained inefficiency of the market outcome is rather striking: it has much too low a steady‐state capital stock.     

Partner support during the prenatal testing period after assisted conception

Background

Pregnancy after infertility is a challenging experience. The first-trimester screening test may add stress. Partner support reduces psychological distress in pregnant women after spontaneous conception. No data are available for women who conceive via assisted reproductive technology.

Partner + Children = Happiness? The Effects of Partnerships and Fertility on Well‐Being

Economic and rational‐choice theories suggest that individuals form unions or have children because these decisions increase their subjective well‐being or “happiness.” We investigate this relation using within‐MZ (identical) twin pair estimates to control for unobserved factors, such as optimistic preferences, that may simultaneously affect happiness, partnerships, and fertility. Our findings, based on Danish twins aged 25–45 and 50–70 years old, include the following. (1) Currently being in a partnership has large positive effects on happiness. (2) A first child substantially increases well‐being, in analyses without controls for partnerships, and males enjoy an almost 75 percent larger happiness gain from a first‐born son than from a first‐born daughter; however, only females enjoy a happiness gain from the first‐born child with controls for partnerships. (3) Additional children beyond the first child have a negative effect on subjective well‐being for females, while there is no effect for males. (4) Ever having had children does not significantly affect the subjective well‐being of males or females aged 50–70 years.     

Social connectedness among international students at an Australian university

A representative sample of undergraduate and postgraduate international students at a large Australian university (n = 979, 64% females) completed a mail-back survey examining their perceptions of social connectedness. Four aspects of social connectedness were investigated: (1) connectedness in Melbourne, (2) social mixing and interaction with co-culturals and Australians, (3) involvement in organisations, associations and groups, and (4) connections to home and family. The majority of students report being well-connected to others in Melbourne, although some desire increased personal support from people who know and care about them. Connectedness in Melbourne is related to students’ cultural background and communication skills in the new culture and their evaluation of their perceived academic progress. Students from Asian countries reveal different patterns to other students, especially in the relationships between connectedness and interactions with co-culturals. Awareness of these and other differences among international students from varying cultural backgrounds can help target assistance in achieving a sense of well-being.     

Family Demography,Social Theory,and Investment in Social Capital

The analytic models used by family demographers would be strengthened by the concept of social capital, placed in the context of social exchange theory. Using that concept to designate resources that emerge from social ties, the authors advance five propositions: 1) social capital is a multidimensional attribute of an individual; 2) the dimensions of social capital are the number of relationships a person has, their quality (strength), and the resources available through those relationships; 3) group membership and interaction facilitate the development of social capital; 4) the structural properties of groups influence the development of social capital; and 5) the acquisition and maintenance of social capital is a major motivator of human behavior. The formation of sexual partnerships, the birth and rearing of children, and both intragenerational and intergenerational transfers constitute major forms of investment in social capital in virtually all societies.     

Family interaction of the young-old: Social exchange as an explanation of the qualitative and quantitative experience

Very frequent family interaction, daily or more often, significantly lowered the morale scores in a sample of retired men and women who were highly satisfied with their family life, even after controlling for health, income and other measures of satisfaction. In contrast to other research which has shown that it is the quality not the quantity which affects morale, these findings suggested that both quantity and quality of family interaction were important to morale. An explanation from the social exchange perspective indicates that there is an optimal level of family interaction beyond which the costs outweight the benefits.     

Wives who outearn their husbands: A transitory or persistent phenomenon for couples?

In what percentage of married couples do wives outearn their husbands, and, moreover, how persistent are these patterns? This study systematically examined variation in point-in-time estimates across alternative measures of earnings, definitions of types of couples, and data sources and gauged the persistence of these patterns for a period of three calendar years using data from the 2000 Current Population Survey and the 1996–2000 Survey of Income and Program Participation. Among the findings are that in 19% to 30% of all married couples, wives have higher earnings than their husbands. In 60% of such couples, this arrangement persists over the three-year period; for the rest, this arrangement is transitory.