Tests for Structural Changes in Time Series of Counts

We propose methods for detecting structural changes in time series with discrete‐valued observations. The detector statistics come in familiar L2‐type formulations incorporating the empirical probability generating function. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. For both models, we study mainly structural changes due to a change in distribution, but we also comment for the classical problem of parameter change. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is also included along with a real data example.     

Resistance as a means of creating accountability in child welfare institutions

This paper investigates the identity constructions of youths who are objects of special interventions in the area of child welfare. The aim of the paper was to explore the various dimensions of resistance to institutional identities among youths in special schools and foster‐care institutions. Interviews were conducted with adolescents aged between 12 and 15, identified as having social, emotional and behavioural difficulties. The analysis generates knowledge about society's interventions as well as how adolescents respond to offered institutional identities by adopting different kinds of discursive resistance. The paper highlights the different types of discursive resistance that adolescents use to present themselves as accountable individuals and discusses the importance of considering resistance as a positive force rather than as something that must be defeated.     

Adolescent migration and the 1990s nuptiality transition in Mali

Attempts to explain the rise in women's age at marriage across Africa have focused mainly on determinants in the urban environment, notably women's education and the economic recession. In our study, we examined the migration of adolescent girls as a factor in the transition to a later age of marriage in rural Mali, using an analysis of data from a longitudinal survey conducted over 20 years. The findings show a close correlation between the rise in labour migration and the onset of this nuptiality transition. Continuing changes in marriage patterns include not only its postponement but also a breakdown in the marriage formalization process. Two main mechanisms are documented: a direct one, as migration enables young women to choose the timing of their marriage and is a source of empowerment; and an indirect one, as migration challenges family marriage conventions and contributes to elders disengaging from control over marriage and young people.     

Decision‐making in child welfare services: Professional discretion versus standardized templates

The article explores differences in the assessment and decision‐making processes, in child welfare services where a standardized template is implemented and in services where it is not. Child welfare services in several countries use different approaches to assess children's and families' need for intervention. In Norway, as in other European countries, there is a shortage of knowledge about decision‐making strategies. The article examines how 36 child welfare caseworkers in 6 different teams in Norway investigate, assess, and make decisions at the phase of an incoming referral. The analysed data were collected by focus group interviews. We use decision theory as a theoretical frame of reference. The analysis shows variation in the assessment procedure at different points of the process, depending on which approach was used. Despite such differences, the final decisions made were almost identical. Even though the data has its limitations because of the small number of informants, the results indicate that choice of approach is not decisive for decision‐making in the child welfare services.     

Importance of sampling weights in multilevel modeling of international large-scale assessment data

Multilevel modeling is an important tool for analyzing large-scale assessment data. However, the standard multilevel modeling will typically give biased results for such complex survey data. This bias can be eliminated by introducing design weights which must be used carefully as they can affect the results. The aim of this paper is to examine different approaches and to give recommendations concerning handling design weights in multilevel models when analyzing large-scale assessments such as TIMSS (The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study). To achieve the goal of the paper, we examined real data from two countries and included a simulation study. The analyses in the empirical study showed that using no weights or only level 1 weights sometimes could lead to misleading conclusions. The simulation study only showed small differences in estimation of the weighted and unweighted models when informative design weights were used. The use of unscaled or not rescaled weights however caused significant differences in some parameter estimates.     

Key decisions in child protection services in cases of domestic violence: maintaining services and out‐of‐home placement

This paper looks at the response of the child protection services (CPS) system in cases where exposure to domestic violence occurs alone or together with abuse or neglect, focusing on the factors involved in decisions to maintain the case open for ongoing services or remove children from the home. The study is based on an analysis of clinical and administrative data from the files on children reported to a CPS agency in Montreal, Canada. A total of 1 071 substantiated reports were documented, including 337 cases of co‐occurrence (32%). Analysis of the data shows that domestic violence does not by itself constitute a factor liable to lead to more intrusive intervention. The CPS response appears to be influenced more by the existence of other forms of maltreatment and risk factors. Additionally, while domestic violence may be associated with more severe individual and family problems, it does not influence the decision to keep the case open because the child still need services. The lack of any connection between domestic violence and this decision is a cause for concern, as results indicate that such families need help. Knowing how to respond to their needs therefore remains a major challenge.     

Developing a Research Agenda on Resident-to-Resident Aggression: Recommendations From a Consensus Conference

This article provides an overview of the development of a research agenda on resident-to-resident aggression (RRA) in long-term care facilities by an expert panel of researchers and practitioners. A 1-day consensus-building workshop using a modified Delphi approach was held to gain consensus on nomenclature and an operational definition for RRA, to identify RRA research priorities, and to develop a roadmap for future research on these priorities. Among the six identified terms in the literature, RRA was selected. The top five priorities were: (a) developing/assessing RRA environmental interventions; (b) identification of the environmental factors triggering RRA; (c) incidence/prevalence of RRA; (d) developing/assessing staff RRA education interventions; and (e) identification of RRA perpetrator and victim characteristics. Given the significant harm RRA poses for long-term care residents, this meeting is an important milestone, as it is the first organized effort to mobilize knowledge on this under-studied topic at the research, clinical, and policy levels.     

Adverse Life Experiences and Homelessness Among Adolescents: an examination of the conditions for convergence

Abstract

There are two factors that limit our knowledge of the risk factors associated with homelessness among runaway adolescents, namely (1) the samples used are often composed of youth homeless service users and/or youths living on the streets (visible homelessness), whereas most adolescents in fact use “private” resources (hidden homelessness), and (2) failure to use an adequate control group to identify risk factors associated specifically with homelessness. Our study compares the characteristics of two groups of youths under the supervision oftheyouth protection system, according to the presence or absence of periods of homelessness. The results throw light on the factors underlying the shiftfrom “at risk” to “homeless”, showing that youths with experience of homelessness are more likely to have been placed in substitute home environments, have experienced significant relationship difficulties with one of their parents (deterioration ofthe parent/youth relationship and parental abuse) and to have been diagnosed with behavioral disorders. The findings suggest that the decision to place young people under supervision is based more on the dynamic between risk factors rather than on the existence of behavioral problems.     

Adolescents' Lifetime Experience of Selling Sex: Development Over Five Years

Lifetime experience of selling sex among adolescents was investigated together with sociodemographic correlates, parent–child relationship, and the existence of people to confide in. Changes over time regarding the selling of sex were investigated through a comparison of data from 2004 and 2009. This study was carried out using 3,498 adolescents from a representative sample of Swedish high school students with a mean age 18.3 years. Of these adolescents, 1.5% stated that they had given sexual services for reimbursement and both male and female buyers existed. The adolescents who had sold sex had a poorer parent–child relationship during childhood and had fewer people to confide in about problems and worries. Changes over time were found especially regarding the Internet as a contact source and also immigrant background.