Trends in inequality in infant mortality in the north of England, 1921–1973, and their association with urban and social structure

Summary.  The paper analyses a time series of infant mortality rates in the north of England from 1921 to the early 1970s at a spatial scale that is more disaggregated than in previous studies of infant mortality trends in this period. The paper describes regression methods to obtain mortality gradients over socioeconomic indicators from the censuses of 1931, 1951, 1961 and 1971 and to assess whether there is any evidence for widening spatial inequalities in infant mortality outcomes against a background of an overall reduction in the infant mortality rate. Changes in the degree of inequality are also formally assessed by inequality measures such as the Gini and Theil indices, for which sampling densities are obtained and significant changes assessed. The analysis concerns a relatively infrequent outcome (especially towards the end of the period that is considered) and a high proportion of districts with small populations, so necessitating the use of appropriate methods for deriving indices of inequality and for regression modelling.     

A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China

Summary.  In an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.     

Measuring the impact of prices on inequality: With applications to Thailand and Korea

This paper develops a new methodology to compute social cost of living indices. These indices indicate whether or not price changes have a favourable (or unfavourable) impact on the welfare of the poor. The indices are derived on the basis of two alternative classes of social welfare functions. The methodology developed in the paper is applied to compute social cost of living indices for Thailand and Korea. The empirical results show that changes in prices have generally affected the poor more adversely than the non-poor.     

Career Counseling in the Twenty‐First Century: Beyond Cultural Encapsulation

The author analyzes the context in which professional career counseling in the U.S. exists at the beginning of the 21st century and makes recommendations to enhance the growth and development of the profession. The issues addressed include developing curricula, training career counselors, broadening the focus on career decision making to include work adjustment, improving the basic and advanced skills of career counselors, and extending career services to diverse groups in the U.S. and to people in other nations. Specific strategies that address each of these issues are discussed.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Cox's Regression Model Under Case–Cohort Sampling

Abstract.  Case–cohort sampling aims at reducing the data sampling and costs of large cohort studies. It is therefore important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a case–cohort study based on the proportional hazards assumption. The estimator shows finite sample properties that improve on those by the Self & Prentice [Ann. Statist. 16 (1988)] estimator. The size of the gain by the MLE varies with the level of the disease incidence and the variability of the relative risk over the considered population. The gain tends to be small when the disease incidence is low. The MLE is found by a simple EM algorithm that is easy to implement. Standard errors are estimated by a profile likelihood approach based on EM-aided differentiation.     

中韩日三国未来在经济上的竞争与合作

一、导言(一)改变中的世界经济数千年前,古代中国在比较厚实的基础之上,就已发展出灿烂的文化,而这先进的文化与经济也通过“丝绸之路”向西方传播。     

Factor Multivariate Stochastic Volatility via Wishart Processes

This paper proposes a high dimensional factor multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) model in which factor covariance matrices are driven by Wishart random processes. The framework allows for unrestricted specification of intertemporal sensitivities, which can capture the persistence in volatilities, kurtosis in returns, and correlation breakdowns and contagion effects in volatilities. The factor structure allows addressing high dimensional setups used in portfolio analysis and risk management, as well as modeling conditional means and conditional variances within the model framework. Owing to the complexity of the model, we perform inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation from the posterior distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of the estimation algorithm. We illustrate our model on a data set that includes 88 individual equity returns and the two Fama-French size and value factors. With this application, we demonstrate the ability of the model to address high dimensional applications suitable for asset allocation, risk management, and asset pricing.