Temporal Patterns of Accuracy Confidence in Social Judgments: A New Method and Initial Results

An integrated, computer-based system was developed to record participants’ continuous judgment changes on a revised form of the Interpersonal Perception Task (IPT-15). Consistent with the considerable research on “thin slice” judgments, the mean latency for greater than chance accuracy confidence was just 16 s (median = 10 s) for the ten one-part scenes on the IPT. There was also a clear and strong linear trend for increasing accuracy confidence across the first 25 s of the ten one-part scenes. For the five-two-part scenes, where comparative judgments were required (e.g., which statement is truthful, which is a lie?), no clear pattern of increasing accuracy confidence was found, with mean scores hovering near chance. The utility of the new system for analyzing the time course of social judgments is discussed and the potential reasons for the contrasting results for the one-part and two-part scenes were examined.     

Meyer Bloomfield: Organizer of the Vocational Guidance Movement (1907–1917)

Meyer Bloomfield was the preeminent leader of the vocational guidance movement during the first 20 years of the 20th century. From 1907 to 1917, he worked to establish organizations, which today are called the National Career Development Association and the American Management Association, and to found a journal, which is now called the Journal of Counseling & Development. To train vocational guidance personnel, he offered the 1st university course in counselor education. He also published several books and many articles on vocational guidance for both professionals and the public.     

A framework for the comparison of maximum pseudo-likelihood and maximum likelihood estimation of exponential family random graph models

The statistical modeling of social network data is difficult due to the complex dependence structure of the tie variables. Statistical exponential families of distributions provide a flexible way to model such dependence. They enable the statistical characteristics of the network to be encapsulated within an exponential family random graph (ERG) model. For a long time, however, likelihood-based estimation was only feasible for ERG models assuming dyad independence. For more realistic and complex models inference has been based on the pseudo-likelihood. Recent advances in computational methods have made likelihood-based inference practical, and comparison of the different estimators possible.     

12‐Month‐Olds Produce Others' Intended but Unfulfilled Acts

Following Meltzoff's (1995) behavioral reenactment paradigm, this study investigated the ability of 12‐month‐olds (N = 44) to reproduce a model's attempted‐but‐failed actions on objects. Testing was conducted using a novel set of objects designed to enable young infants to readily identify the potential outcome of the model's actions. Infants who saw an adult's attempted‐but‐failed actions now produced her intended outcomes at an equivalent rate to infants who saw the model's completed acts, and significantly more so than infants who either observed an adult manipulating the test apparatus using nontarget actions or who did not see any actions demonstrated on the test apparatus. This result shows that, contrary to previous studies, 12‐month‐olds can produce the intended but unconsummated acts of others.     

Regional variation in acceptance of Indonesia's family planning program

Indonesia's family planning program is regarded as a major success.Survey data from 1997 reveal that rates of contraceptive use vary dramatically amongIndonesia's 27 provinces, from a high of 67 percent of ever married women currently using contraceptives in the province of North Sulawesi, to a low of 19 percent current users in East Timor and28 percent in Aceh. This study uses both a quantitative analysis of the 1997 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey, and a qualitative study carried out in July of 2000 to understand regionalvariation. The study identified a small number of factors that show a clear relation with levels of contraceptive use. Media exposure and education are the strongest and most consistent predictors of levels of contraceptive use, and appear to be the surest strategies for promoting family change. But the study also showed that the process of social change is subjectto culturally and historically specific local factors whose presence and importance is difficult to predict. Our study of regional variation in contraceptive use illustrates the range and complexityof obstacles faced by Indonesia's leaders in attempting to forge a single nation fromsuch a diverse and far-flung population. Although the creation of Indonesia in the space of just half a century is a monumental achievement, the project is clearly not yet complete.     

Sociology’s Sacred Victims and the Politics of Knowledge: Moral Foundations Theory and Disciplinary Controversies

The field of sociology has long been subject to critique for alleged ideological bias and left-wing groupthink linked to its social justice mission. Critics contend that the construction of “sacred victims” by progressive intellectuals hinders their ability to objectively appraise the circumstances of such vulnerable groups. To address this criticism, we survey 479 sociologists in national universities and colleges in the U.S. regarding three sensitive controversies: urban poverty in the black community; gendered differences in occupational choices; and immigration. We find significant patterns in the data. Commitment to the field’s “moral mission,” preferred research paradigm, gender, and especially political orientation are all significant predictors of sociologists’ views. The results, we suggest, can be understood by conceptualizing the field of sociology as an “emotive community.” In doing so, we draw upon current social psychological research on moral foundations theory developed by Jonathan Haidt and colleagues.     

Is Nature‐Oriented Tourism a Pro‐Environmental Practice?: Examining Tourism–Environmentalism Alignments Through Discourse Networks and Intersectoral Relationships

A key tenet of ecotourism is that interacting with nature through tourism cultivates environmental awareness and responsibility. We examine this assumption by analyzing discourse networks and organizational networks that connect tourism and environmentalism in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. Using a combination of interviews, field observation, and web‐based data, we ask: Is there an alignment of tourism and environmental discourse regarding human interaction with and use of coastal environments? Are there meaningful organizational ties between tourism and environmental organizations? We conclude that there is little indication that nature‐oriented tourism is working to produce substantial changes to our broader political ecology.     

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.