The World Fertility Survey: an appraisal of methodology

"In the first half of the article, a broad account of content and procedures is given. In conduct of individual surveys, the achievements of the World Fertility Survey were based on thoroughness rather than technical superiority. The later aspects of the program, including analysis, archiving, and data dissemination, were more innovative and represent models of excellence for similar future enquiries. In overall terms, the program is judged to be an expensive success. In the second half of the article, two methodological issues are discussed in more detail: the collection of retrospective birth histories and the translation of survey instruments into local languages." Comments by Anthony G. Turner (pp. 768-9), Kweku T. de Graft-Johnson (pp. 769-70), Burton Singer (pp. 771-2), and Joel E. Cohen (pp. 772-4) are appended.     

Main changes and differentiations in the health status of Poland's population with allowances for international mortality comparisons

The health status of the population of Poland is analyzed for the postwar period, with emphasis on the 1980s. Trends in mortality, and particularly in excess male mortality, are described and compared with other European countries.     

Demographics: people and markets

The basics of demography are now basic to us business as well. Demographics combine demographic data with socioeconomic and geographic factors to help business and other managers know the market for their goods and services. This pamphlet explains market, product, and site analyses, discusses data sources and resources, and includes case studies involving major corporations. Post-war population trends have had an enormous impact on consumer and labor markets, bringing home to business the importance of taking advantage of demographic shifts. Advances in computerized access to data describing changes and increased consciousness of their economic significance has spurred the application of demographic knowledge by managers and the growth of the demographics information industry. The pamphlet describes the resources and methods of demographics including the creation and use of demographic data products.     

Social policy and the birthrate

The arguments for and against policy measures designed to increase birth rates in European countries are reviewed. The author concludes that the deterioration of the environment associated with the growth of population in developed countries outweighs any arguments in favor of policy measures to increase fertility.     

Consequentialist demographic norms and parenting rights

This paper extends the author's recent work on dynamically consistent consequentialist social norms for an unrestricted domain of decision trees with risk to trees in which the population is a variable consequence — i.e., endogenous. Given a form of ethical liberalism and ethical irrelevance of distant ancestors, classical utilitarianism is implied (provided also that a weak continuity condition is met). The repugnant conclusion that having many poor people may be desirable can be avoided by denying that individuals' interests extend to the circumstances of their birth. But it is better avoided by recognizing that potential parents have legitimate interests concerning the sizes of their families.That action is best, which procures the greatest happiness for the greatest numbers. Francis Hutchison (1725).An abiding interest in concepts of optimality for the choice of population has been stimulated by frequent discussions with Partha Dasgupta. This paper was presented at the seminar on Distributive Justice and Inequality at the Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin, May 1986. I am grateful to the audience for their helpful comments, especially Maurice Salles and Patrick Suppes, and especially to John Weymark for carefully reading and suggesting distinct improvements to the earlier version.     

The Indonesian transmigration program in historical perspective

"The purpose of this paper is to look at what has been achieved by the transmigration program [in Indonesia], to examine the major problems that have arisen and to consider the present constraints which now cast some doubt upon the future of the program." A historical overview of government policies from 1905 to 1988 is provided, and problems of land supply, land use, and lack of funds are discussed. Data are from the 1961 and 1980 Indonesian censuses. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

THE GUNS OF AUTUMN?: AGE DIFFERENCES IN SUPPORT FOR INCOME TRANSFERS TO THE YOUNG AND OLD

Data from the 1973 and 1986 General Social Surveys are usedto test the hypothesis that elderly individuals favor publicspending patterns that support their own interests and not thoseof children. Support for educational spending and welfare bythe elderly is found to be less than within other age groups.Age patterns of support for Social Security spending are mixed.Responses to a series of "vignettes" depicting low-income familieswith young children and elderly women living alone showed thatelderly respondents are slightly more supportive than averageof transfers to low-income families with children and less supportivethan average of transfers to low-income members of their owncohort. Elderly respondents appear more generous once theirmore frugal notions of what it takes to "get along" are takeninto account. Support for transfers to young families is moreclosely related to income than age and is not consistent withthe hypothesis that the elderly support programs that benefitthemselves at the expense of programs that benefit the young.     

Black and white population change in small American suburbs since World War II: regional differences

"This study examines the relationship between black population concentration (% black), black population change and white population change for small American suburbs for the 1950-1980 period. Linear, tipping point (curvilinear) and interaction models of racial transition are evaluated for each decade by region (South and non-South), controlling for several other suburban characteristics (age, annexation and distance to the Central Business District) which may affect both black and white population change. The analyses show that racial transition in suburbs involves the parallel development of white and black populations with mainly weak and complex causal linkages which are sensitive to broader suburbanization patterns."