On the functional form of temporal discounting: An optimized adaptive test

The tendency to discount the value of future rewards has become one of the best-studied constructs in the behavioral sciences. Although hyperbolic discounting remains the dominant quantitative characterization of this phenomenon, a variety of models have been proposed and consensus around the one that most accurately describes behavior has been elusive. To help bring some clarity to this issue, we propose an Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO) method for fitting and comparing models of temporal discounting. We then conduct an ADO experiment aimed at discriminating among six popular models of temporal discounting. Rather than supporting a single underlying model, our results show that each model is inadequate in some way to describe the full range of behavior exhibited across subjects. The precision of results provided by ADO further identify specific properties of models, such as accommodating both increasing and decreasing impatience, that are mandatory to describe temporal discounting broadly.     

An exploratory study on the potential of social enterprise to act as the institutional glue of network governance

This study combines two topics of contemporary salience for public administration: social enterprise and governance networks. While operating at different levels, both are institutions which attempt to draw together the three pillars of state, market, and civil society. Nevertheless, the respective literatures focus on particular aspects of the three pillars. We connect the two concepts and suggest that some social enterprises can act as the institutional glue of networks due to their ability to benefit organizations in each of the three sectors. This requires social enterprises to have the managerial capacity to diffuse social know-how, and is facilitated by the trust of other organizations and a supportive policy framework. The links are explicated at the conceptual level before providing evidence from South Korea and the UK. Finally, research propositions are offered, which suggest new avenues for future research.     

Is Probability the Only Coherent Approach to Uncertainty?

In this article, I discuss an argument that purports to prove that probability theory is the only sensible means of dealing with uncertainty. I show that this argument can succeed only if some rather controversial assumptions about the nature of uncertainty are accepted. I discuss these assumptions and provide reasons for rejecting them. I also present examples of what I take to be non-probabilistic uncertainty.     

Teamworking and organizational performance: A review of survey‐based research

This paper presents a review of recent survey‐based research looking at the contribution of teamwork to organizational performance. In particular, it focuses on empirical studies in which both teamwork and performance are directly measured in a quantitative way. The paper begins by identifying four interrelated dimensions of teamwork effectiveness: attitudinal, behavioural, operational and financial. The first two represent transmission mechanisms by which organizational performance can be improved. The latter two provide direct measures of organizational outcomes. The review shows that teamworking has a positive impact on all four dimensions of performance. It also reveals that, when teamwork is combined with structural change, performance can be further enhanced. The paper concludes by highlighting some important research gaps that future studies could address.     

Age discrimination and working life: Perspectives and contestations – a review of the contemporary literature

This review highlights some of the principal issues and debates surrounding age discrimination at the workplace. Essentially, the existing research in this area can be divided into three broad, although somewhat overlapping, categories. The first explores the underlying causes and consequences of age discrimination at the workplace from one or other theoretical tradition. The second broad body of literature encompasses empirical studies which document the nature and extent of age discrimination, based on the use of official statistics, and/or firm‐level survey evidence. The third explores the effects of various governmental initiatives to reduce the incidence of age discrimination and policy options in this area. Even though age discrimination is widely accepted to be prevalent, its causes are rather more contentious. Age discrimination has variously been ascribed to market imperfections, the product of rational choices and the effects of long‐term changes in the nature of the economy. Policy interventions may be prompted by economic pressure, demographic changes or cultural shifts, and have involved voluntary codes as well as legislation. Although voluntary codes have generally proved ineffective, the literature indicates that more formal regulations may still have only limited efficacy, underscoring the deeply rooted nature of age discrimination in society.     

Stochastic Spanning

ABSTRACT

This study develops and implements methods for determining whether introducing new securities or relaxing investment constraints improves the investment opportunity set for all risk averse investors. We develop a test procedure for “stochastic spanning” for two nested portfolio sets based on subsampling and linear programming. The test is statistically consistent and asymptotically exact for a class of weakly dependent processes. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment shows good statistical size and power properties in finite samples of realistic dimensions. In an application to standard datasets of historical stock market returns, we accept market portfolio efficiency but reject two-fund separation, which suggests an important role for higher-order moment risk in portfolio theory and asset pricing. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Direct and Indirect Effects Based on Difference-in-Differences With an Application to Political Preferences Following the Vietnam Draft Lottery

Abstract

We propose a difference-in-differences approach for disentangling a total treatment effect within specific subpopulations into a direct effect and an indirect effect operating through a binary mediating variable. Random treatment assignment along with specific common trend and effect homogeneity assumptions identify the direct effects on the always and never takers, whose mediator is not affected by the treatment, as well as the direct and indirect effects on the compliers, whose mediator reacts to the treatment. In our empirical application, we analyze the impact of the Vietnam draft lottery on political preferences. The results suggest that a high draft risk due to the draft lottery outcome leads to an increase in mild preferences for the Republican Party, but has no effect on strong preferences for either party or on specific political attitudes. The increase in Republican support is mostly driven by the direct effect not operating through the mediator that is military service.     

Geodesic Monte Carlo on Embedded Manifolds

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods explicitly defined on the manifold of probability distributions have recently been established. These methods are constructed from diffusions across the manifold and the solution of the equations describing geodesic flows in the Hamilton–Jacobi representation. This paper takes the differential geometric basis of Markov chain Monte Carlo further by considering methods to simulate from probability distributions that themselves are defined on a manifold, with common examples being classes of distributions describing directional statistics. Proposal mechanisms are developed based on the geodesic flows over the manifolds of support for the distributions, and illustrative examples are provided for the hypersphere and Stiefel manifold of orthonormal matrices.