Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

New avenues to be opened for social protection in the Arab world: the case of Egypt*

This article looks at social protection in the Arab world. Giving the example of Egypt, it asks why poverty is so widespread and why – despite the country's numerous social protection systems – social risks are a major contributing factor to it. It concludes that reforms are due. The existing systems are well funded but inefficient and more to the benefit of the better‐off than the poor. A reform approach is proposed which builds on both conventional and more innovative strategies: campaigns should be launched to raise public awareness of social risks; social assistance spending should be increased; and the operating public pension schemes should be reformed. At the same time, new avenues have to be opened to meet the specific needs of informal sector workers who have extreme difficulty in being covered by social insurance or social assistance. To this purpose, micro‐insurance is a promising approach for the Arab‐world region.     

Verbetrieblichung und betrieblicher Konflikt

Since the 1990s there is an ongoing process of decentralisation and ??Verbetrieblichung?? in German labour regulation. The opening of regional sector-level collective agreements for additional specific bargaining at the plant level is evaluated and discussed by practitioners and scholars very controversially. Critics of the decentralisation trends expect an increase of distributive conflicts inside plants and companies. The article analyses whether there are actually signs for an increase of conflicts in firm-level industrial relations in this context, and if so, under which conditions conflicts are likely to occur. Based in theoretical considerations, the article analyses the influence of different patterns of collective agreements on the incidence of conflicts and the relationship between employers and employees at firm level. Empirical data stems from a representative survey that includes interviews with management and employee representatives from German private sector companies. The data suggest some evidence on the conflict reducing function of industry-level collective agreements. Changes in a firm??s regulation structure appear to increase conflicts.     

Authors’ response: on the role of data,statistics and decisions in a pandemic

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis -     

Auf der Suche nach der verlorenen Wirklichkeit

Zusammenfassung  Der vorliegende Beitrag widmet sich dem in der Soziologie zu Unrecht kaum wahrgenommenen Beitrag Siegfried Kracauers zu einer Soziologie der Dinge und des Visuellen. An seiner Studie über die Angestellten und seiner Filmtheorie wird aufgezeigt, dass Kracauer mit Hilfe einer konkreten Analyse der Dinge der Wirklichkeit beizukommen versucht, die in seinen Augen durch das abstrakte Denken der Wissenschaften geradezu unkenntlich gemacht wird. In dieser Diagnose — so die Argumentation des vorliegenden Beitrags — erweist sich Kracauers Werk als überraschend aktuell.

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In search of the lost reality. Attention and thing-perception in siegfried kracauer’s works

The article discusses an essay on the Sociology of Things and the Visual by Siegfried Kracauer, which has been met with an unjustly poor feedback from the sociological community. Based on his studies of white-collar workers and his theory of films it argues that Kracauer chooses a specific analysis of things to approach a reality, which — in his view — had been rendered virtually unrecognizable by the abstract reasoning of the scientific world. The article follows the idea that it is this analysis, which makes Kracauers work modern and up-to-date.

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„überhaupt übernehmen die Dinge die Darstellung der Situation.“ (Wihelm Genazino)