The ensemble Kalman filter is an ABC algorithm

The ensemble Kalman filter is the method of choice for many difficult high-dimensional filtering problems in meteorology, oceanography, hydrology and other fields. In this note we show that a common variant of the ensemble Kalman filter is an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm. This is of interest for a number of reasons. First, the ensemble Kalman filter is an example of an ABC algorithm that predates the development of ABC algorithms. Second, the ensemble Kalman filter is used for very high-dimensional problems, whereas ABC methods are normally applied only in very low-dimensional problems. Third, recent state of the art extensions of the ensemble Kalman filter can also be understood within the ABC framework.     

Resistance to metropolitan institutionality and planning in Chile

In this article, the authors review and analyse two key processes conducted by the Chilean state over the past 50 years. The first process consists of the development of specific planning instruments for the particular realities of metropolitan areas. The second process consists of the successive legislative attempts to work towards a definition of a new form of institutionality for cities with metropolitan profiles. These attempts have either failed or solely become bills of law. Both processes suggest a political and technical resistance throughout history, to substantially modify institutionality, as well as planning instruments, in order to make them more appropriate and consistent with the needs of growing metropolitan areas in Chile.     

交际能力助你脱颖而出

如果每个应聘者都技能高超，受过良好教育且毕业于同一所学校，过往的成就也不相上下，委派受命的机率也均等，你将如何抉择？谁将成为幸运儿，谁又将出局？     

Neighborhood Association Participation and Formal Volunteering in Japan

We examine the effect of participation in neighborhood association (NHA) activities on volunteering using the 2010 Japanese General Social Survey data. We find that controlling for established predictors of formal volunteering such as demographic and socioeconomic variables, NHA association participation, either operationalized as a dichotomous or interval variable, positively predicts volunteering. Moreover, some of the established predictors of volunteering (e.g., marital status and associational membership) are useful in predicting NHA participation. Our results indicate a complementary relationship between volunteering and NHA participation. We discuss implications of our study for future research on community volunteering in Japan and elsewhere.     

The relationship of intimate partner aggression to head injury, executive functioning, and intelligence

Measures of head injury, executive functioning, and intelligence were given to a community sample composed of 102 male perpetrators of intimate partner aggression (IPA) and 62 nonaggressive men. A history of head injury and lower mean score on a measure of verbal intelligence were associated with the frequency of male-perpetrated physical IPA as reported by male perpetrators and their female partners. Lower mean scores on a measure of verbal intelligence also predicted frequency of psychological IPA perpetration. Using the perpetrator subtypes outlined by Holtzworth-Munroe et al. (2000), analyses revealed that compared with other groups, the most severely aggressive subtypes (i.e., borderline-dysphoric and generally violent-antisocial) were the most likely to report a history of head injury and to have significantly lower mean scores on a neuropsychological test of verbal intelligence. The possible role of neuropsychological factors in IPA perpetration and implications for prevention and intervention programs are discussed.     

Household Saving Behavior and the Influence of Family-Owned Business

This study focused on the lifecycle income objective of business-owning (farm and nonfarm) households. We hypothesized that the complex relationship between household and business management decisions had the potential to challenge predictions from standard household savings theory. Specifically, we tested for differences in saving behavior of these entrepreneurial households relative to the average US household. A limited dependent variable model was performed, keying in on the saving behavior and ability of household respondents in the Survey of Consumer Finances for 2007. The estimation results indicated that, along with standard demographic influences of savings models, households owning a farm or nonfarm business had a significantly higher likelihood of maintaining private saving in a given year. Our results highlight the necessity for future research on household saving behavior to account for the differing objectives and choice sets faced by households that own businesses when conducting analyses of household saving.     

成功继任秘笈

为什么领导者继任规划总让人觉得是在浪费时间呢？我和我的朋友吉姆·摩尔在高层管理者的培训和继任方面进行了大量的研究。吉姆曾在大型企业担任首席学习官。以下是我们关于如何使领导者继任规划成为企业管理重要手段的一些观点。     

An Empirical Approach to Sufficient Similarity: Combining Exposure Data and Mixtures Toxicology Data

When assessing risks posed by environmental chemical mixtures, whole mixture approaches are preferred to component approaches. When toxicological data on whole mixtures as they occur in the environment are not available, Environmental Protection Agency guidance states that toxicity data from a mixture considered “sufficiently similar” to the environmental mixture can serve as a surrogate. We propose a novel method to examine whether mixtures are sufficiently similar, when exposure data and mixture toxicity study data from at least one representative mixture are available. We define sufficient similarity using equivalence testing methodology comparing the distance between benchmark dose estimates for mixtures in both data‐rich and data‐poor cases. We construct a “similar mixtures risk indicator”(SMRI) (analogous to the hazard index) on sufficiently similar mixtures linking exposure data with mixtures toxicology data. The methods are illustrated using pyrethroid mixtures occurrence data collected in child care centers (CCC) and dose‐response data examining acute neurobehavioral effects of pyrethroid mixtures in rats. Our method shows that the mixtures from 90% of the CCCs were sufficiently similar to the dose‐response study mixture. Using exposure estimates for a hypothetical child, the 95th percentile of the (weighted) SMRI for these sufficiently similar mixtures was 0.20 (i.e., where SMRI <1, less concern; >1, more concern).     

Hispanic Fertility,Religion and Religiousness in the U.S.

Is the higher fertility of Hispanics in the United States due to their religion and/or to their greater religiousness? Evidence from national survey data indicates no difference in fertility between Protestant and Catholic Hispanic women but Hispanics are more religious than non-Hispanics in terms of the perceived importance of religion in their personal lives. Religiousness is associated with higher fertility but Hispanic fertility is higher than non-Hispanic fertility regardless of religion or religiousness. Ethnic differences in education and income in turn are more important for fertility than the religious dimension.