Interventions to Improve Late Life

This is an expanded version of comments on the future of the demography of aging at an invited session of the 2008 annual meeting of the Population Association of America. In an introduction, John Haaga offers reasons for a revival of interest in population aging, including greater realization of plasticity in aging trajectories at both individual and societal levels. Linda Martin proposes that population scientists working in aging emulate those studying fertility and family planning in previous decades, learning from interventions (in this case, aimed at increasing retirement savings and reducing disability at older ages). Changes in family structure will increasingly affect new cohorts of the elderly, and Linda Waite speculates on the ways in which changes in the economy, medicine, and the legal environment could affect the social context for aging. Research on mortality at older ages is “alive and well” asserts James Vaupel, who sets out six large questions on mortality trends and differentials over time and across species. Lastly, Wolfgang Lutz expands the scope of projections, showing the considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of population aging in the developing world and the effects on future elderly of the increases in educational attainment in much of the world during the second half of the twentieth century.     

Markov Poisson regression models for discrete time series. Part 2: Applications

This paper applies the Markov Poisson regression methodology of Wang and Puterman to the analysis of seizure frequencies in an epilepsy clinical trial and counts of poliomyelitis cases. The analysis of the poliomyelitis data is compared with that of Zeger.     

Sozioökonomische Entwicklung und Wertvorstellungen in elf Regionen der Türkei

Being an official EU candidate country since 2005 Turkey has also become an interesting object of investigation for empirical social science, especially in the field of value research. In this article we examine value orientations in different regions of Turkey. Contrary to previous country-comparing studies our regional approach accounts for the immense developmental gaps which exist within Turkey. In line with central assumptions of modernization theory we expect values of tolerance and individual autonomy in high developed regions and, on the other side, dogmatic beliefs, intolerance and authoritarian attitudes being predominant in weaker developed regions. First, regional stages of modernization are specified using macro indicators like GDP, education, urbanity, the occupational structure, and fertility rate from the official statistics of Turkey. The regional spectrum varies from extremely poor developed rural-agrarian regions in the east to industrialized regions with high degrees of urbanization up to the rich regions in the west with well developed infastructure and service sector. Second, Multiple Correspondence Analyses carried out with data from the European Values Study 2000 show that value differences concerning democratic culture, religiosity, secularity and sexual tolerance occur as expected according to socio-economic disparities between regions. Additionally, we find evidence that independent from socio-economic factors value orientations of people are also shaped by other influences like the minority situation or political stability in a region.     

Roma Education in Eastern and Central Europe: some personal reflections

In this article I reflect on my experiences working on educational projects involving Roma in Eastern and Central Europe, especially in Bulgaria. I discuss one particular case study, in which a group of educational experts were able to get the Bulgarian Government to accept and later to support intercultural education materials on the Roma. I also outline an educational approach that I would like to call the “bottle party” approach to education, to be contrasted with the “vessel filling” approach. I close by describing a new initiative in informal education in Central and Eastern Europe that revolves around the concepts of empowerment and mentorship.     

Note on the use of statistics of total fertility to provide estimates of crude birth rates

It is shown that estimates of the total fertility by age of mother can be used to give good rough approximations to birth rates in under-developed countries and that this method is likely to be more accurate than the collection of historical data relating to particular calendar periods.     

The slave trade in the western Sudan during the nineteenth century

The traditional historical narrative has tended to interpret colonization during the Civil War by simultaneously discounting African-American support for the policy and Abraham Lincoln's sincerity in offering it. Challenging these views, this paper examines new evidence of the U.S. government's efforts to enlist the pro-emigration minority of the free black community for a proposed settlement in British Honduras. For a brief period in 1863, black emigrationists including Henry Highland Garnet and John Willis Menard seriously entertained the Lincoln administration's colonization offers, spurred largely by their experiences with racial violence in the USA and the prospect of stronger political rights abroad.     

The role of self-regulation in developing leaders: A longitudinal field experiment

A longitudinal field experiment examined a leader self-regulation intervention in teams engaged in a Business Strategy Module (BSM) of a University course. The BSM, which is an integral part of the degree programme, involved teams of four or five individuals, under the direction of a leader, working on a (simulated) car manufacturing task over a period of 24 weeks. Various aspects of team performance contributed towards module assessment. All leaders received multi-source feedback of leader task-relevant capabilities (from the leader, followers and module tutor). Leaders were randomly allocated into a self-regulation intervention (15 leaders, 46 followers) or control (25 leaders, 109 followers) conditions. The intervention, which was run by an independent coach, was designed to improve leaders' use of self-regulatory processes to aid the development of task-relevant leadership competencies. Survey data was collected from the leaders and followers (on three occasions: pre- and two post-test intervention), team financial performance (three occasions: post-test) and a final team report (post-test). The leader self-regulation intervention led to increased followers' ratings of leader's effectiveness, higher team financial performance and higher final team grade compared to the control (non-intervention) condition. Furthermore, the benefits of the self-regulation intervention were mediated by leaders' attaining task-relevant competencies.