Detection of a changepoint,a mean-shift accompanied with a trend change,in short time-series with autocorrelation

In this study, a changepoint model, which can detect either a mean shift or a trend change when accounting for autocorrelation in short time-series, was investigated with simulations and a new method is proposed. The changepoint hypotheses were tested using a likelihood ratio test. The test statistic does not follow a known distribution and depends on the length of the time-series and the autocorrelation. The results imply that it is not possible to detect autocorrelation and that the estimate of the autocorrelation parameter is biased. It is therefore recommended to use critical values from the empirical distribution for a fixed autocorrelation.     

How to ask sensitive multiple-choice questions

Motivated by recent failures of polling to estimate populist party support, we propose and analyze two methods for asking sensitive multiple-choice questions where the respondent retains some privacy and therefore might answer more truthfully. The first method consists of asking for the true choice along with a choice picked at random. The other method presents a list of choices and asks whether the preferred one is on the list or not. Different respondents are shown different lists. The methods are easy to explain, which makes it likely that the respondent understands how her privacy is protected and may thus entice her to participate in the survey and answer truthfully. The methods are also easy to implement and scale up.     

The impact of restructuring on employee well-being: a systematic review of longitudinal studies

This is a review of published longitudinal empirical research on the impact of restructuring on employee well-being. We investigated whether restructuring accompanied by staff reductions impacts differently on worker well-being than restructuring without staff reductions, and the differences between short- and long-term effects of restructuring. Furthermore, we investigated the mechanisms that explain these effects. We conducted a literature search on longitudinal, peer-reviewed, English-written studies from the period 2000–2012. Thirty-nine papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We found that restructuring events, with and without staff reductions, mainly have a negative impact on the well-being of employees. The majority of studies showed negative changes over time, in the short and the long term. Some groups of workers reacted less negatively: for example, workers with a high organizational status before a merger and workers who underwent a change in workgroup. Variables that intervened in the relationship between restructuring and well-being were physical demands, job control, communication, provision of information, training, procedural justice, job insecurity and change acceptance. Further high-quality longitudinal research is needed to get more insight into the impact of restructuring over time and into the part played by intervening variables.     

Welfare, labor supply and heterogeneous preferences: evidence for Europe and the US

Following the report of the Stiglitz Commission, measuring and comparing well-being across countries has gained renewed interest. Yet, analyses that go beyond income and incorporate non-market dimensions of welfare most often rely on the assumption of identical preferences to avoid the difficulties related to interpersonal comparisons. In this paper, we suggest an international comparison based on individual welfare rankings that fully retain preference heterogeneity. Focusing on the consumption-leisure trade-off, we estimate discrete choice labor supply models using harmonized microdata for 11 European countries and the US. We retrieve preference heterogeneity within and across countries and analyze several welfare criteria which take into account that differences in income are partly due to differences in tastes. The resulting welfare rankings clearly depend on the normative treatment of preference heterogeneity with alternative metrics. We show that these differences can indeed be explained by estimated preference heterogeneity across countries—rather than demographic composition.     

Divorced Fathers and Their Daughters: A Review of Recent Research

This study examined single mothers' concerns about the effects of father absence on boys. A two-pan questionnaire covering 11 dimensions of parent role and child development was administered to a group of single and a group of nonsingle mothers. Subjects rated the "importance" of a father and a mother and the effects of a father's absence on a boy. It was found that singles rated a father more important than nonsingles did, but singles also rated a mother more important-this was called the "parenting effect." All subjects rated a father as more important than a mother; the two most significant dimensions, especially for single mothers, were "sex role" and "play activity," substantiating previous research' and observation. The findings were discussed in terms of single mothers' psychosocial conditions, and clinical implications were offered.     

Parenting Plans for Infants,Toddlers, and Preschoolers: Research and Issues

In the debate over parenting plans for infants and toddlers, a central question is whether these very young children should spend overnight time away from their mothers in their fathers’ care. This article summarizes and critiques the 11 empirical studies that have addressed this question. Overall, overnighting was not associated with negative outcomes for infants and toddlers and was associated with positive outcomes for preschoolers.     

The Effectiveness of Immigration Policies

This article elaborates a conceptual framework for assessing the character and effectiveness of immigration policies. It argues that, to a considerable extent, the public and academic controversy concerning this issue is spurious because of fuzzy definitions of policy effectiveness, stemming from confusion between (1) policy discourses, (2) policies on paper, (3) policy implementation, and (4) policy impacts. The article distinguishes three policy gaps: the discrepancy between public discourses and policies on paper (discursive gap); the disparity between policies on paper and implemented policies (implementation gap); and the extent to which implemented policies affect migration (efficacy gap). Although implemented policies seem to be the correct yardstick to assess policy effectiveness, in practice the (generally more pronounced) discourses are often used as a benchmark. This can lead to an overestimation of policy failure. Existing empirical studies suggest that policies significantly affect the targeted migration flows, but they crucially fail to assess the relative importance of policies in comparison to other migration determinants, including non‐migration policies, as well as the hypothetical occurrence of unintended categorical, spatial, inter‐temporal, and reverse flow “substitution” effects. Evidence on such effects is still scarce, showing the need for more empirically informed insights about the short‐ and long‐term effects of migration policies.     

In sickness and in health: An exploration of spousal support and occupational similarity

Abstract

While many studies of interventions have focused on their content and immediate effects, less research has focused on the processes that may explain these effects. The purpose of this study was to show how process evaluation can be used to interpret the results of an intervention study in four industrial canteens in Denmark. Two canteens acted as intervention groups and two as comparison groups. Effects were measured by surveys before and after interventions, and observations and interviews were conducted to provide an in-depth understanding of processes. Analyses were conducted based on the responses from 118 employees. Results showed, contrary to expectations, improvements in working conditions and well-being in one intervention group and in one comparison group, whereas no improvements were found in the two remaining groups. Data from the process evaluation enabled a meaningful interpretation of these results, raising the possibility programme failure rather than theory failure, and thereby constituting an example of how process evaluation can shed light over the factors that may influence outcomes in controlled intervention studies.     

All I want for Christmas is recovery – changes in employee affective well-being before and after vacation

Abstract

Transformational leaders employ a visionary and creative style of leadership that inspires employees to make independent decisions and develop in their work. There is some evidence that the transformational (inspirational) leadership style is linked to employee burnout and stress. However, little research has focused on the psychological mechanisms that could explain this link, nor has there been a focus on positive affective well-being. We propose that transformational leaders influence their followers' self-efficacy, thereby affecting affective well-being in followers. This study extends previous work by examining the direct link between leadership and well-being both cross-sectionally (N=447) and longitudinally (N=188), and testing the mediating effects of self-efficacy. The study was carried out within parts of an elderly care department in a Danish local government. A theory-driven model of the relationships between leadership, self-efficacy and affective well-being was tested using Structural Equation Modelling. The results indicated that followers' self-ratings of self-efficacy mediated the relationship between transformational leadership style and positive affective well-being. Only limited evidence for a direct path between leadership behaviour and positive affective well-being was found. These findings have implications for how organizations may promote employee well-being, through interventions directed at supporting transformational leadership behaviours.