Reference priors for linear models with general covariance structures

We develop a new class of reference priors for linear models with general covariance structures. A general Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is also proposed for implementing the computation. We present several examples to demonstrate the results: Bayesian penalized spline smoothing, a Bayesian approach to bivariate smoothing for a spatial model, and prior specification for structural equation models.     

Union Instability as an Engine of Fertility? A Microsimulation Model for France

Opportunities for conceiving and bearing children are fewer when unions are not formed or are dissolved during the childbearing years. At the same time, union instability produces a pool of persons who may enter new partnerships and have additional children in stepfamilies. The balance between these two opposing forces and their implications for fertility may depend on the timing of union formation and parenthood. In this article, we estimate models of childbearing, union formation, and union dissolution for female respondents to the 1999 French Etude de l’Histoire Familiale. Model parameters are applied in microsimulations of completed family size. We find that a population of women whose first unions dissolve during the childbearing years will end up with smaller families, on average, than a population in which all unions remain intact. Because new partnerships encourage higher parity progressions, repartnering minimizes the fertility gap between populations with and those without union dissolution. Differences between the two populations are much smaller when family formation is postponed—that is, when union formation and dissolution or first birth occurs after age 30, or when couples delay childbearing after union formation.     

Monte carlo approximation to edgeworth expansions

Since the 1930s, empirical Edgeworth expansions have been employed to develop techniques for approximate, nonparametric statistical inference. The introduction of bootstrap methods has increased the potential usefulness of Edgeworth approximations. In particular, a recent paper by Lee & Young introduced a novel approach to approximating bootstrap distribution functions, using first an empirical Edgeworth expansion and then a more traditional bootstrap approximation to the remainder. In principle, either direct calculation or computer algebra could be used to compute the Edgeworth component, but both methods would often be difficult to implement in practice, not least because of the sheer algebraic complexity of a general Edgeworth expansion. In the present paper we show that a simple but nonstandard Monte Carlo technique is a competitive alternative. It exploits properties of Edgeworth expansions, in particular their parity and the degrees of their polynomial terms, to develop particularly accurate approximations.     

Union views of managerial prerogatives revisited: The prospects for labor-management cooperation

Using data from a survey of AFL-CIO affiliated unions, I compare union views of managerial prerogatives in 1997 with those reported in a 1968 study. Unions today desire more input into the firm's decision-making process than in 1968, particularly with regard to issues traditionally reserved to management. Given management's traditional resistance to “outside” interference, more cooperative relationships between unions and managment may be problematic. I thank Richard Hoppins and Edwin Sexton for research assistance.     

Reconstructing developmental psychology—some first steps

My starting point is the claim that developmental psychology has traditionally projected a standardised image of childhood, especially through the emphasis on describing universal stages of psychological growth within what are assumed to be normal childhood environments. These reifications of universality and normality have in turn regulated social action at individual, family and school level. Increasingly, these same images are being idealised and treated as a standard for judging the quality of childhood in contexts far removed from their Euro-American origins. I explore the historical roots of universalistic thinking about children's nature, their needs and what constitutes healthy development and consider the opportunities for a new psychology of childhood to be reconstructed in ways that pay more attention to the cultural dimensions of the subject. I illustrate the growing interest amongst psychologists in studying children's development as a socio-cultural process, as well as the lessons of social constructionist critiques of the developmental paradigm itself. I conclude by reflecting on some of the challenges facing psychological studies of childhood issues that are more reflexive, inclusive and cultural. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Existence and Uniqueness of Maximal Reductions Under Iterated Strict Dominance

Iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies is an order dependent procedure. It can also generate spurious Nash equilibria, fail to converge in countable steps, or converge to empty strategy sets. If best replies are well–defined, then spurious Nash equilibria cannot appear; if strategy spaces are compact and payoff functions are uppersemicontinuous in own strategies, then order does not matter; if strategy sets are compact and payoff functions are continuous in all strategies, then a unique and nonempty maximal reduction exists. These positive results extend neither to the better–reply secure games for which Reny has established the existence of a Nash equilibrium, nor to games in which (under iterated eliminations) any dominated strategy has an undominated dominator.     

Profitieren Kinder mit Migrationshintergrund von pädagogischen Fachkräften mit Migrationshintergrund?Do migrant children benefit from migrant teachers?

This paper tests the assumption that a stronger presence of migrant teachers in preschool can help to reduce ethnic disadvantages and contribute to more equality of opportunity. To this end, migrant children who are taught by teachers with a migration background are compared to those who are confronted with only autochthonous teachers in their day-care centre. The outcome variables include competencies in German language, mathematics, science, as well as social competencies of the children. In addition, the study investigates the contact frequency of migrant parents with the day care centre to test whether contact is enhanced in centres which employ migrant teachers. Contrary to expectations, propensity score matching analyses based on the Kindergarten cohort of the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) show that migrant children do not achieve higher competencies when being taught by migrant teachers. Similarly, contact to migrant parents is not improved. More teachers with a migration background will hardly reduce ethnic disadvantages in educational outcomes.     

IN‐SEASON HEAD‐COACH DISMISSALS AND THE PERFORMANCE OF PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAMS

This paper studies the causes and consequences of in‐season changes of the head‐coach of association football teams. We exploit data from the highest level of Dutch professional football during 14 successive seasons. An in‐season change of the head‐coach depends on recent match results and the difference between actual results and expectations as measured using bookmaker data. We find that, after the head‐coach has been replaced, teams perform better than before. However, the performance is also better than before for a control group of coach replacements that did not occur. From this we conclude that replacement of head‐coaches does not improve team performance. (JEL J44, L83)