Quantal Risk Assessment Database: A Database for Exploring Patterns in Quantal Dose‐Response Data in Risk Assessment and its Application to Develop Priors for Bayesian Dose‐Response Analysis

Quantitative risk assessments for physical, chemical, biological, occupational, or environmental agents rely on scientific studies to support their conclusions. These studies often include relatively few observations, and, as a result, models used to characterize the risk may include large amounts of uncertainty. The motivation, development, and assessment of new methods for risk assessment is facilitated by the availability of a set of experimental studies that span a range of dose‐response patterns that are observed in practice. We describe construction of such a historical database focusing on quantal data in chemical risk assessment, and we employ this database to develop priors in Bayesian analyses. The database is assembled from a variety of existing toxicological data sources and contains 733 separate quantal dose‐response data sets. As an illustration of the database's use, prior distributions for individual model parameters in Bayesian dose‐response analysis are constructed. Results indicate that including prior information based on curated historical data in quantitative risk assessments may help stabilize eventual point estimates, producing dose‐response functions that are more stable and precisely estimated. These in turn produce potency estimates that share the same benefit. We are confident that quantitative risk analysts will find many other applications and issues to explore using this database.     

Social,Relational and Network Determinants of Unprotected Anal Sex and HIV Testing Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Beirut,Lebanon

Objectives: We examined the social, relational and network determinants of condom use and HIV testing among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Beirut. Methods: Two-hundred thirteen men were recruited via respondent driven sampling and administered a survey. Results: Sixty-four percent reported unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), including 23% who had UAI with unknown HIV status partners (UAIU); 62% of participants had tested for HIV. In multivariate analysis, being in a relationship was associated with UAI and HIV testing; lower condom self-efficacy was associated with UAIU and HIV testing; gay discrimination was associated with UAIU; MSM disclosure was associated with UAI, UAIU and HIV testing; and network centralization was associated with HIV testing. Conclusions: Multi-level social factors influence sexual health in MSM.     

Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.     

Development and validation of the Protective Gambling Beliefs Scale (PGBS)

This article aimed to develop and validate a measure of protective beliefs – distinct from the absence of erroneous beliefs – that may be associated with resistance to gambling problems. Study 1 was designed to determine the reliability and content validity of a preliminary set of protective belief items. Participants (N = 1479, 813 males) also completed the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). Most items were associated with reduced risk of problems; however, items relating to an awareness of gambling harm, and preparedness to lose money were positively correlated with gambling problems and were therefore not demonstrably protective. Study 2 sought to reduce scale size and assess the scale’s ability to predict risk of gambling problems. Participants (N = 1168, 625 males) completed belief items, the PGSI, and measures of gambling consumption and cognitive distortions. Results showed that endorsement of protective beliefs was negatively correlated with PGSI, gambling consumption and cognitive distortions, and predicted PGSI above that of cognitive distortions. Findings suggest that the Protective Gambling Beliefs Scale (PGBS) offers a unique tool for understanding resistance to the development of gambling problems. Future research should focus on exploring whether protective beliefs can diminish the likelihood of the onset of problem gambling.     

Contested theories of prison labor practice

In recent years, prison strikes and controversies have brought public attention to the systemic problems with prison labor in the United States. Such labor often exploits people who are imprisoned to do work that is vital to society—including firefighting, farming, or manufacturing consumer goods—with wages that can be less than a dollar per hour in highly coercive working conditions. Although there is call to end prison labor today, theories of prison labor have historically been contested, even among activists and progressive reformers. Accordingly, this review offers a short sociological history of labor in correctional environments, highlights contemporary controversies, and argues for a more fine-grained approach to the relationships among labor, prisons, and reentry. It traces the field of reformers and scholars that have made arguments for punitive, rehabilitative, restorative, and transformative approaches to work. The contested theories of prison labor across time and space suggest that a better understanding is needed of what makes labor exploitative and what forms of labor have the potential to transform the root causes of crime, within and beyond prison walls. Overall, this review has implications for those who study prison and reentry programs, relationships between crime and community, and the political economy of incarceration.     

R package rjmcmc: reversible jump MCMC using post‐processing

The rjmcmc package for R implements the post‐processing reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Barker & Link. MCMC output from each of the models is used to estimate posterior model probabilities and Bayes factors. Automatic differentiation is used to simplify implementation. The package is demonstrated on two examples.     

The effects of leadership change on team escalation of commitment

Although teams benefit from developing plans and processes that boost efficiency and reduce uncertainty, they may become too attached to these plans and escalate commitment when an alternative response is needed. Drawing on theories of team leadership, team processes and escalation of commitment, we propose that a change in leadership can help the team reduce commitment to outdated plans and avoid further escalation over time. Across two studies, we tested and found support for our hypotheses and provide evidence that leadership change can break the cycle of escalation by enhancing leader-driven team reflection and refocusing the team on error correction instead of additional investment. We discuss how the results of these studies extend existing theory and add to our understanding of the important role leaders play in enhancing team adaptation and preventing team escalation.     

Globalization, the structure of the world economy and economic development

How does the structure of the world economy determine the gains from participation therein? In order to answer this question, we conduct a state of the art network analysis of international trade to map the structure of the international division of labor (IDL). We regress cross-national variation in economic growth on positional variation and mobility of countries within the IDL from 1965 to 2000. We find that the highest rates of economic growth occurred to countries in the middle of the IDL over the course of globalization. Second, we find that upper tier positions in the IDL are converging with each other, but diverging from the lower tier. This suggests that the mechanism underlying the rapid economic growth in intermediate positions was their uniquely high rates of upward mobility, in turn a function of their middling position. Taken together, these findings suggest that a country’s long-term economic development is conditioned by its position in the IDL.     

Substance use and other factors associated with child welfare case duration: Looking beyond out of home care

Little is known about factors associated with child welfare case duration. Understanding factors associated with case duration may help stakeholders make more informed decisions about funding and service allocation and improve compliance with federal law. This study had two research questions: (1) What factors are associated with child welfare case duration? And (2) Do factors differ depending on whether children were placed exclusively with parents or with others (e.g. relatives and foster care) during the case? The study sample consisted of families (N = 874) with co-occurring child maltreatment and substance use in one midwestern state in the United States between 2007 and 2016. Linear regression models were used to identify correlates of case duration while controlling for child placement status. Overall, having a child under 1 year of age, benzodiazepine use, methamphetamine use and injection drug use were all associated with longer case duration, whereas marijuana use with no other substance use was associated with shorter case duration. Additionally, factors associated with case duration differed based on child placement status during the case. These findings suggest important heterogeneity in families involved with child welfare services and may allow for proactive mitigation of cases at greater risk.     

Effectiveness of the Coral Tree Family Service family inpatient unit: a longitudinal study exploring change in family functioning

Child mental health disorders represent a major burden to public health in Australia due to high prevalence rates, the widespread impact across domains, and the potential for difficulties to persist into adolescence and adulthood. Extensive evidence exists for the use of parent management training and cognitive behavioural therapy to treat difficulties experienced by children; however, a proportion of children do not benefit as expected from these treatments. The use of complementary therapeutic approaches and variations to the mode and intensity of existing intervention is warranted; family inpatient units represent a unique example of this. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a well-established Australian inpatient unit that admits the whole family, for children aged 12 years and younger referred with mental health, behavioural, or emotional difficulties. This study's longitudinal within-subject study design utilised routinely collected outcome data from the systemic clinical outcome and routine evaluation, 15 item (SCORE-15)—a valid and reliable measure of family functioning—from a sample of 980 participants attending the Family Residential Program. This study reported significant improvement in family functioning across all outcome variables between baseline and post-intervention, with no variables returning to pre-intervention levels at follow-up. Clinically significant changes in overall family functioning showed that 37% of participant scores moved from the clinical range at baseline to the nonclinical range post-intervention. This study represents the first empirical evaluation of the Family Residential Program, and the reported results provide compelling evidence for the program to effect improvement in family functioning for families with long-standing and severe difficulties. Poor rates of questionnaire completion following intervention frequent the literature base of family inpatient units, with low post-intervention (56%) and follow-up (12%) rates evident in this study. This study uniquely contributes to the growing evidence base of family inpatient units using rigorous evaluation methods.