MOVING OUT OF THE HOUSE: AN ANALYSIS OF CONGRESSIONAL QUITS

Despite extensive study concerning involuntary departures by U.S. House members, little has been said about voluntary departures from the House–-quit behavior. This paper has three primary purposes: (1) to establish a theoretical framework that models the full range of choices a representative faces in any given term, (2) to measure the impact of different variables that affect representatives' quit behavior, and (3) to explain why Republicans have been more likely to pursue higher office than their Democratic colleagues.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

The gambling lifestyle: I. theory

This paper describes the lifestyle model of gambling behavior in which compulsive gambling behavior is conceptualized as a lifestyle characterized by pseudoresponsibility, self-ascension, hypercompetitiveness, and social rule breaking/bending/ twisting. The underlying premise of this theory is that gambling behavior takes on the appearance of a lifestyle when it is viewed by the individual as a viable means of enhancing self-worth, minimizing personal insecurity, and controlling fear. Three primary areas of theoretical and research interest are covered in this paper: (1) the theoretical underpinnings of lifestyle theory; (2) the individual components (conditions, choice, cognition) of a gambling lifestyle; and (3) the developmental progression of a gambling lifestyle.The author would like to thank Henry Lesieur and anonymous reviewers of earlier versions of this paper for their helpful comments. The assertions and opinions contained herein are the private views of the author and should not be construed as official or as reflecting the views of the Federal Bureau of Prisons or United States Department of Justice.     

Medicine on the line? Computer‐mediated social support and advice for people with diabetes

The advent of thousands of Usenet groups on the Internet, covering a vast range of medical and welfare issues and ostensibly devoted to the mutual social support of participating members, has raised the potential for the development of new forms of 'virtual' health care. This article critically analyses the use by people with diabetes of one such Usenet group. It seeks to establish, first, the extent to which such a site provides some demonstrable measure of social support to its participants. This is approached by undertaking a structural analysis of the site to identify the extent of usage, and the nature of supporting interventions using a fivefold classification (instrumental, informational, esteem and social companionship and other). Second, the article attempts to identify any disparity between the lay health-knowledge in evidence and biomedical opinions proffered by the use of a panel of consultant diabetiologists. The results of the analysis suggest that the diabetes newsgroup provides an example of an active forum for largely well-informed participants who routinely use the media as an aid to the reflexive management of their medical condition. It also raises the prospect of a renegotiated relationship between medical knowledge and lay experience based upon shared learning     

Women with Turner's Syndrome: helping them reach their full potential

The physical and psychological effects of Turner's Syndrome, a female sex chromosome abnormality, briefly are described. Principles for helping women master the special challenges posed by the disorder are discussed. The authors argue that women with TS must take control of defining their identities and potential in order to attain full status within society.     

The Impact of Question and Respondent Characteristics on Comprehension and Mapping Difficulties

Behavior coding is one technique researchers use to detect problemsin survey questions, but it has been primarily explored as apractical tool rather than a source of insight into the theoreticalunderstanding of the cognitive processes by which respondentsanswer survey questions. The latter is the focus of the currentinvestigation. Using data from a large study in which face-to-faceinterviews were taped and extensive behavior coding was done,we tested whether sets of respondent behavior codes could beused to distinguish respondent difficulties with comprehensionof the question from difficulties associated with mapping ajudgment onto the response format provided, and whether characteristicsof the survey questions and respondents could be used to predictwhen and for whom such difficulties would occur. Sets of behaviorcodes were identified that reflected comprehension and mappingdifficulties, and these two types of difficulties were associatedwith different question and respondent characteristics. Thisevidence suggests that behavior coding shows promise as a toolfor researchers studying the cognitive processes involved inanswering survey questions.