FLIP‐FLOPPING: IDEOLOGICAL ADJUSTMENT COSTS IN THE UNITED STATES SENATE

Using a long panel of roll call voting data, I find that “flip‐flopping” senators face significant electoral costs when changing positions. In models of electoral competition, as the costs to candidates changing position approach zero, the equilibrium prediction is the convergence of platforms. Such convergence is at odds with empirical observation. Using a dynamic, structural model of candidate positioning, I identify the nature of the costs associated with changing position that may result in such non‐convergence. (JEL D72, C61, H11)     

Identity Development in a Transracial Environment: Racial/Ethnic Minority Adoptees in Minnesota

It has been argued that transracially adopted children have increased risk of problems related to self-esteem and ethnic identity development. We evaluated this hypothesis across four groups of transracial adoptees: Asian (n = 427), Latino (n = 28), Black (n = 6), mixed/other (n = 20), and same-race White adoptees (n = 126) from 357 adoptive families. No mean differences were found in adoptees’ ratings of affect about adoption or of curiosity about birth parents. Some differences were found in general identity development and adjustment. There were notable differences in communication about race/ethnicity across groups and between parent and child report.     

Cost of Living Variation,Nonmetropolitan America,and Implications for the Supplemental Poverty Measure

Population Research and Policy Review - Poverty scholarship in the United States is increasingly reliant upon the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) as opposed to the Official Poverty Measure of...     

Environmental disasters as risk regulation catalysts? The role of Bhopal,Chernobyl, Exxon Valdez,Love Canal,and Three Mile Island in shaping U.S. environmental law

Unexpected events such as environmental catastrophes capture wide public attention. Soon after five major shocks—Three Mile Island, Love Canal, Bhopal, Chernobyl, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill—Congress voted on new risk regulation. This paper conducts an event study to test whether individual congressional representatives were “shocked” by these environmental disasters into increasing their probability of voting in favor of risk legislation. On average, representatives were less likely to vote in favor of bills tied to these five events. Significant heterogeneity in representatives’ responses to these shocks is documented. Liberal Northeast representatives were most likely to increase their pro-environment voting in the aftermath of these shocks.

The World Ozymandias Made: Utopias in the Superhero Comic,Subculture, and the Conservation of Difference

Revolution is the triumph of freedom; its organization is based on spontaneity, not on the dictates of a “hero” who imposes himself through violence. It is a continuous and systematic elevation of a people, following the lines of a hierarchy, and creating for itself one by one the organs that the new social life demands.     

Reconsidering the Marielito Legacy: Race/Ethnicity,Nativity, and Homicide Motives*

Objective. This article investigates how race/ethnicity is associated with specific types of violent crime such as killings between intimates, robbery homicide, or drug‐related killings. We extend the study of the role of race and ethnicity for violence by examining five ethnic/immigrant groups, including the Mariel Cubans—a group singled out by many as particularly drug‐crime‐prone. Methods. Using 1980 through 1990 homicide data for the City of Miami, we use multinomial logistic regression to examine the association between race/ethnicity, nativity, and several types of homicide motives. Results. Contrary to popular expectations, ethnicity and immigration status rarely play a role in the types of homicide involvement of victims or violators. Incident characteristics, such as multiple offenders, or gender and age, were consistently more important influences in shaping homicide circumstances. Conclusions. The analyses revealed few significant relationships between immigration status and homicide motives, suggesting that immigrant groups like the Marielitos have more in common with native groups' experiences of criminal violence than is commonly assumed.     

A New Right? Moral Issues and Partisan Change in Canada*

Objective. Beginning with the 1993 election, Canada's Progressive Conservative Party was replaced as the dominant force on the political right by the more ideological Reform Party/Canadian Alliance. This article examines what specific issues most centrally motivated this seismic shift among conservative Canadians. Method. Using data from the 1993, 1997, and 2000 Canadian Election Studies, we employ bivariate analyses and multinomial logit voting models to determine whether constitutional, economic, nativist, or moral issues most clearly differentiate PC supporters from R/A voters. Results. Regional concerns are important and other issues have sporadic impacts, but moral traditionalism is the most consistent and powerful factor distinguishing supporters of the new party from supporters of the old one. Conclusions. Although existing studies have focused primarily on other sources of R/A support, moral traditionalism is clearly a key factor in explaining the party's ascendancy. This phenomenon, we contend, is part of a larger trend toward postmaterial politics in Western democracies.     

Long memory estimation for complex-valued time series

Statistics and Computing - Long memory has been observed for time series across a multitude of fields, and the accurate estimation of such dependence, for example via the Hurst exponent, is crucial...