A stepwise discrete variable selection procedure

A stepwise variable selection procedure for multinomial discrimination is presented and discussed. Based upon the work of Kullback and Hills, stopping rules are proposed and illustrated for a set of data on communication buyer behavior.     

The Environmental Consequences of Rural and Urban Population Change: An Exploratory Spatial Panel Study of Forest Cover in the Southern United States, 2001–2006

This exploratory study examines the effects of rural and urban population change on forest cover at the local level across the southern United States. Using county‐level data from the National Land Cover Database and other U.S. government sources, we regressed the total area of forest cover on rural and urban population size in spatial panel models with two‐way fixed effects. When we controlled for several other factors, including the number of forestry operations at the county level, regression results indicate that urban change had no effect, but rural population size was positively related to total forest area, and this effect was most pronounced in and around Georgia. Thus, in areas of the southern United States, rural growth was associated with afforestation, not deforestation. We speculate on how this unusual finding contributes to the debate between ecological modernization and urban political economy implicated in previous cross‐national research.     

Relational factors in understanding satisfaction in the lasting relationships of same sex and heterosexual couples

Satisfying relationships are important to the well-being of individuals and families. Because of increased longevity, many couples are staying together for extended periods of time. Thus, it is valuable to understand the factors that contribute to a sense of satisfaction among partners in lasting relationships. Relatively little attention has been paid in the research literature to relationships among older couples who have remained together for many years. Even less attention has been paid to the lasting relationships of couples of color and to gay male and lesbian couples. This paper focuses on understanding the factors that contribute to satisfaction of partners in the long-term relationships of a purposive sample of heterosexual and same-sex couples. Data was collected through in-depth interviews with 216 partners in 108 relationships that had lasted an average of 30 years. Using logistic regression analysis, two factors were identified as predictive of satisfaction during the recent years of these relationships: containment of relational conflict and psychologically intimate communication between partners. Based on these findings, a theoretical model for understanding satisfaction in lasting relationships is discussed.     

Estimating the prevalence of adolescent gambling disorders: A quantitative synthesis and guide toward standard gambling nomenclature

This article reviews the extant published and unpublished studies that estimate the prevalence of adolescent gambling problems in North America. The nine nonduplicative studies identified by our literature search included data collected from more than 7700 adolescents from five different regions of the United States and Canada. In addition to comparing the conceptual and methodological differences that exist among these studies, this article employed a meta-analytic strategy to synthesize prevalence estimates from the existing studies. This analysis revealed that within a 95 percent confidence interval, between 9.9% and 14.2% of adolescents are at risk of developing or returning to serious gambling problems. Similarly, between 4.4% and 7.4% of adolescents exhibit seriously adverse compulsive or pathological patterns of gambling activity. Finally, the discussion proposes a generic multi-level classification scheme to reconcile the divergent classification methods and data reporting strategies. This new multi-level approach to reporting gambling prevalence will facilitate interstudy comparisons among existing estimates of gambling prevalence and help to provide a general data reporting system for future research.     

The Rhetoric of the State: Dependency and Control in a Malaysian–Indonesian Borderland Key Words:

This article examines dependency on cross-border labor and marriage along the international frontier in the Kelabit Highlands of Sarawak, Malaysia (Borneo) and some local efforts to restrict outsiders. The international border in this remote region of Borneo is highly permeable, and border-crossing activities, including seasonal migrant wage labor and cross-border marriage, are crucial both to the local political economy and to the reproduction of the Kelabit family and farm. This article explores the unique position of the Kelabit as they attempt to appropriate aspects of state power or use the rhetoric of state power in their efforts to maintain a status quo with regard to neighboring, and closely related, migrant workers from across the border.     

Sample Selection in Models of Academic Performance

This article shows how admission and enrollment processes affect the interpretation of simple validation studies of academic performance. In a competitive market for students, optimal behavior of admissions committees and applicants drives the simple correlation between test scores and performance toward zero, regardless of the relationship in the population of prospective students. Data from our university's MBA program support the prediction that applicants exhibit a higher correlation between test scores and undergraduate GPAs than do current students. This suggests that standard validation studies will understate the importance of GMAT scores in predicting performance of potential MBA students. (JEL C24 , I121 , C52 )     

Bayesian inference for pairwise interacting point processes

Pairwise interacting point processes are commonly used to model spatial point patterns. To perform inference, the established frequentist methods can produce good point estimates when the interaction in the data is moderate, but some methods may produce severely biased estimates when the interaction in strong. Furthermore, because the sampling distributions of the estimates are unclear, interval estimates are typically obtained by parametric bootstrap methods. In the current setting however, the behavior of such estimates is not well understood. In this article we propose Bayesian methods for obtaining inferences in pairwise interacting point processes. The requisite application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques is complicated by an intractable function of the parameters in the likelihood. The acceptance probability in a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm involves the ratio of two likelihoods evaluated at differing parameter values. The intractable functions do not cancel, and hence an intractable ratio r must be estimated within each iteration of a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We propose the use of importance sampling techniques within MCMC to address this problem. While r may be estimated by other methods, these, in general, are not readily applied in a Bayesian setting. We demonstrate the validity of our importance sampling approach with a small simulation study. Finally, we analyze the Swedish pine sapling dataset (Strand 1972) and contrast the results with those in the literature.     

The spatial structure of epidemic emergence: geographical aspects of poliomyelitis in north-eastern USA, July-October 1916

Summary.  The great epidemic of poliomyelitis which swept New York City and surrounding territory in the summer of 1916 eclipsed all previous global experience of the disease. We draw on epidemiological information that is included in the seminal US Public Health Bulletin 91, 'Epidemiologic studies of poliomyelitis in New York City and the northeastern United States during the year 1916' (Washington DC, 1918), to re-examine the spatial structure of the epidemic. For the main phase of transmission of the epidemic, July–October 1916, it is shown that the maximum concentration of activity of poliomyelitis occurred within a 128-km radius of New York City. Although the integrity of the poliomyelitis cluster was maintained up to approximately 500 km from the metropolitan focus, the level and rate of propagation of disease declined with distance from the origin of the epidemic. Finally, it is shown that the geographical transmission of the epidemic in north-eastern USA probably followed a process of mixed contagious–hierarchical diffusion.