Zur Exploration statistisch gut angepasster Latent-Class-Modelle durch Homogenitätsanalyse

With this article, an attempt is made to combine both confirmatory and exploratory analysis. It is argued that confirmatory and exploratory approaches have to complement one another. As an example for confirmation latent-class-models are estimated for 3 variables which are supposed to measure a latent dimension “attitudes towards integration — segregation of the mentally ill”. Employing a 3-, and a 4-class solution it can be shown that exclusively looking on the model fit is not sufficient. Since both models fit equally well, both the membership-probabilities and the category-probabilities for each class are inspected. By means of homogeneity-analysis within the latent classes, the interpretation of deviations from the model assumptions is facilitated considerably. It is shown that very special and rare responsepattern may question a straightforward interpretation of a simple parsimonious model.     

试论企业技术创新激励与约束机制

由于缺乏有效的企业技术创新的激励机制和约束机制,致使相当部分国有企业缺乏创新的热情和责任,不能成为技术创新的主体,激励机制与约束机制是企业技术创新的动力机制,只有尽快建立相对完善的激励机制和约束机制,才能保证企业技术创新活动的健康发展.     

Determinanten des Informationsgehalts von Managementprognosen – eine empirische Untersuchung anhand der DAX und MDAX-Unternehmen

In this article the characteristics and determinants of the information content of management earnings forecasts of the German DAX and MDAX companies between 2002 and 2005 are analyzed. As proxy for the information content I use the precision of the wording of a forecast. I can show that the forecasts of MDAX companies are more precisely formulated than those of DAX companies. Furthermore forecasts are formulated more precisely, when companies have, (1) a lower percentage of intangible assets, (2) lower market capitalization, (3) lower volatility of earnings and (4) a higher need for external financing.     

Parallel inference for massive distributed spatial data using low-rank models

Due to rapid data growth, statistical analysis of massive datasets often has to be carried out in a distributed fashion, either because several datasets stored in separate physical locations are all relevant to a given problem, or simply to achieve faster (parallel) computation through a divide-and-conquer scheme. In both cases, the challenge is to obtain valid inference that does not require processing all data at a single central computing node. We show that for a very widely used class of spatial low-rank models, which can be written as a linear combination of spatial basis functions plus a fine-scale-variation component, parallel spatial inference and prediction for massive distributed data can be carried out exactly, meaning that the results are the same as for a traditional, non-distributed analysis. The communication cost of our distributed algorithms does not depend on the number of data points. After extending our results to the spatio-temporal case, we illustrate our methodology by carrying out distributed spatio-temporal particle filtering inference on total precipitable water measured by three different satellite sensor systems.     

Bisphenol A: How the Most Relevant Exposure Sources Contribute to Total Consumer Exposure

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disrupting chemical that is found in human urine throughout industrial societies around the globe. Consumer exposure pathways to BPA include packaged food, household dust, air, and dental fillings. To date, information on the relative contribution of the different pathways to total consumer exposure is lacking, but is key for managing substance‐associated risks. We investigated the relative contributions of the pathways known to be most relevant for nine different consumer groups. Our results suggest that the most important pathways for infants and children are the use of polycarbonate (PC) baby bottles and for adults and teenagers the consumption of canned food. Dental surgery can also considerably contribute over a short time directly after the surgery. For infants fed with PC baby bottles with mean dose rates of 0.8 μg/kg_bw/d the highest exposure dose rate was calculated. This dose rate is far below the tolerable daily intake of 50 μg/kg_bw/d. However, it is of the same order of magnitude as recently reported concentrations that caused low‐dose health effects in rodents. We find a pattern of falling exposure levels with rising age that is supported by urinary concentrations of BPA available for selected consumer groups. Similarly, the exposure levels we predict are confirmed by the levels reported in these studies.     

Managing cohesion in transnational organizations: an introduction

Aesthetic approaches seek to enrich knowledge about the ‘sensible’ aspects of experience. The ‘aesthetic dimension’ of shipboard organizational life is evoked and co‐created through multiple aesthetic categories such as the agogic, the sacred, and the sublime rendered through multiple sensory experiences of life aboard. A researcher and sailor‐informant co‐authored aesthetic reading contributes to a growing niche of aesthetic‐based research within organization studies. Our article explores collaboration as an important element of the aesthetic project. Possibilities for future aesthetic inquiries are also considered.     

Childcare costs and the demand for children—evidence from a nationwide reform

Exploiting the exogenous variation in user fees caused by a Swedish childcare reform, we are able to identify the causal effect of childcare costs on fertility in a context in which childcare enrollment is almost universal, user fees are low, and labor force participation of mothers is very high. Anticipation of a reduction in childcare costs increased the number of first and higher-order births, but only seemed to affect the timing of second births. For families with many children we also find a marginally significant negative income effect on fertility.     

Liberalisierungspolitik

Political-economic classics of different schools agreed that capitalism inherently and inevitably leads to a decline of market principles. We analyze indicators of liberalization policies for 21 OECD-countries in five economic and social policy fields and demonstrate that western industrialized countries are subject of a convergent trend towards market-creating policies??in stark contrast to the theoretical expectations of several political economy authors. At the latest during the first half of the eighties, the western democracies entered a new phase of economic liberalization, which continues up to the present. A methodological implication of our findings suggests that the methods of causal analysis of convergent liberalization policies may not be the same as those who have been applied for the analysis of development and consolidation of the varieties of capitalism in the postwar era.