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1.
Klaus Schneeberger Matthias Huttenlau Benjamin Winter Thomas Steinberger Stefan Achleitner Johann Sttter 《Risk analysis》2019,39(1):125-139
This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately. 相似文献
2.
Summary:
The H–family of distributions or H–distributions, introduced by Tukey (1960; 1977), are
generated by a single transformation of the standard normal distribution and allow for leptokurtosis
represented by the parameter h. Alternatively, Haynes et al. (1997) generated leptokurtic distributions
by applying the K–transformation to the normal distribution. In this study we propose a third transformation,
the so–called J–transformation, and derive some properties of this transformation. Moreover,
so-called elongation generating functions (EGFs) are introduced. By means of EGFs we are able to
visualize the strength of tail elongation and to construct new transformations. Finally, we compare the
three transformations towards their goodness–of–fit in the context of financial return data. 相似文献
3.
We show that Bayesian ex post aggregation is unstable with respect to refinements. Suppose a group of Bayesians use ex post
aggregation. Since it is a joint problem, each agent's problem is captured by the same model, but probabilities and utilities
may vary. If they analyze the same situation in more detail, their refined analysis should preserve their preferences among
acts. However, ex post aggregation could bring about a preference reversal on the group level. Ex post aggregation thus depends
on how much information is used and may keep oscillating (“flipping”) as one keeps adding more information.
Received: 16 April 2002/Accepted: 27 May 2002 相似文献
4.
Ricardo Maronna Matthias Fischer Jürgen Groß Andreas Karlsson 《Statistical Papers》2007,48(1):163-170
5.
Matthias Burisch 《Work and stress》2002,16(1):1-17
This study investigated the relative contribution of personality vs. environmental factors to the genesis of the burnout syndrome. A sample of 221 nursing students in Hamburg, Germany, were administered a battery of personality measures prior to any training. They were later asked to rate various stressors encountered during their practical training on hospital wards and also in nursing school, general aspects of ward climate, the frequency of private life events, and their own well-being on standard measures of burnout. Data were collected at seven time points over a period of 3 years, including the initial assessment (T1-T7). Only complete data sets (N = 123) were used for the analyses. Burnout scores from T2 to T7 were predicted, on the one hand, by the 36 'dispositional' scales of the initial battery and, on the other hand, by a set of 18 'experience-oriented' scales from the later questionnaire's concurrent administration. Scales reflecting well-being were predicted better by experiences than by dispositions. With scales reflecting attitudes towards oneself and patients, respectively, it was the other way around. Thus, both dispositional and experiential views of burnout receive some support here. Intraindividual change in burnout scores could not be linked to dispositional or experiential variables. 相似文献
6.
Michael Kirchler David Andersson Caroline Bonn Magnus Johannesson Erik Ø. Sørensen Matthias Stefan Gustav Tinghög Daniel Västfjäll 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2017,54(1):37-59
We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments. 相似文献
7.
Strategic management scholars have long emphasized the importance of innovation for a firm's competitive advantage and performance. However, the current state of knowledge about the strategic management of innovation is characterized by conflicting theoretical predictions, persisting knowledge gaps and theoretical inconsistencies. Adopting a ‘systematic’ approach to reviewing the literature, this paper combines different quantitative methods – co‐word analysis, cluster analysis and frequency analysis – to review 342 articles on the strategic management of innovation published in seven journals from 1992 to 2010. On the basis of these analyses, suggestions are developed for future research which could help to promote future theory development and provide relevant material for policy decisions that managers and executives have to make when they manage innovation. 相似文献
8.
Fink Matthias Hatak Isabella Scholz Markus Down Simon 《Review of Managerial Science》2020,14(2):335-343
Review of Managerial Science - Third-party funding of academic research has grown rapidly in its scope and impact. However, several forces demand greater attention to potential opportunities,... 相似文献
9.
Utz Schäffer Jan-Philipp Lüdtke Diedrich Bremer Matthias Häußler 《Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaft》2012,82(1):47-73
This paper investigates the influence of accounting standards on systematic earnings understatement. To isolate the effect
of reporting regulations from those of other institutional drivers of earnings management, Holthausen (2003) proposes analyzing
reporting practices in a country undergoing a transition in accounting standards. We respond to this call by analyzing earnings
management practices of large German-listed companies before and after their transitions from German GAAP to IFRS. Specifically,
we focus on Big Bath behavior following Chief Financial Officer turnovers between 1999 and 2006. Our findings provide evidence
of the effect of accounting standards on the existence of this particular earnings understatement pattern. However, while
we detect Big Bath behavior for our sample of German GAAP firms, we find no such indication for those firms reporting under
IFRS. Controlling for alternative explanations such as self-selection bias does not change our findings. We conclude that
accounting standards seem to have a considerable influence on earnings management behavior, independent of managers’ and auditors’
incentives. 相似文献
10.
Matthias Neumann Christian Hirsch Jakub Stank Viktor Bene Volker Schmidt 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2019,46(3):848-884
We investigate the problem of estimating geodesic tortuosity and constrictivity as two structural characteristics of stationary random closed sets. They are of central importance for the analysis of effective transport properties in porous or composite materials. Loosely speaking, geodesic tortuosity measures the windedness of paths, whereas the notion of constrictivity captures the appearance of bottlenecks resulting from narrow passages within a given materials phase. We first provide mathematically precise definitions of these quantities and introduce appropriate estimators. Then, we show strong consistency of these estimators for unboundedly growing sampling windows. In order to apply our estimators to real data sets, the extent of edge effects needs to be controlled. This is illustrated using a model for a multiphase material that is incorporated in solid oxide fuel cells. 相似文献