Joint Income-Wealth Inequality: Evidence from Lucerne Tax Data

Social Indicators Research - Using tax data from the Swiss canton of Lucerne, we study how measures of economic inequality change if they account for income and wealth rather than income alone....     

The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking

We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments.     

Leaving Home for Marital and Non-marital Reasons in the Netherlands, 1850–1940: The Impact of Parental Death and Parental Remarriage

European Journal of Population - Previous research shows that parentally bereaved children in north-western Europe in the past left home earlier than children who lived together with both...     

Parallel inference for massive distributed spatial data using low-rank models

Due to rapid data growth, statistical analysis of massive datasets often has to be carried out in a distributed fashion, either because several datasets stored in separate physical locations are all relevant to a given problem, or simply to achieve faster (parallel) computation through a divide-and-conquer scheme. In both cases, the challenge is to obtain valid inference that does not require processing all data at a single central computing node. We show that for a very widely used class of spatial low-rank models, which can be written as a linear combination of spatial basis functions plus a fine-scale-variation component, parallel spatial inference and prediction for massive distributed data can be carried out exactly, meaning that the results are the same as for a traditional, non-distributed analysis. The communication cost of our distributed algorithms does not depend on the number of data points. After extending our results to the spatio-temporal case, we illustrate our methodology by carrying out distributed spatio-temporal particle filtering inference on total precipitable water measured by three different satellite sensor systems.     

Erosion oder Stabilität der Beruflichkeit?

Regarding the changing patterns of mobility processes in the German labor market, this paper takes up the scientific debate on the declining significance of occupational qualifications. By comparing several labor market entry cohorts, the matching of the learned occupation and the practiced occupation is analyzed in both the horizontal and the vertical dimension of occupational mobility. In doing so, the question of a successful utilization of the skills acquired in the educational process can be addressed. Changes of occupations will be operationalized on the basis of a new professional classification by using the data set “Working and Learning in a Changing World” (ALWA). First, the Kaplan Meier survival curves show that the risks of horizontal occupational mobility have increased across cohorts. This indicates that the formerly close relationship between the education system and the employment system has weakened. Furthermore, according to our multivariate Cox regression analysis, the mobility towards inadequate status positions has increased. Thus, due to the expansion of atypical forms of employment and the increased volatility of the markets, altered mobility patterns of the younger cohorts entering the labor market can be shown. Consequently, the increase of unsuccessful transfers of skills in inter-firm mobility suggests a weakened cohesiveness between professionalism and a growing risk to loose professional qualifications.     

Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?

I compare the predictions of three variants of the altruistic parent model of Barro and Becker for the relationship between child mortality and fertility. In the baseline model fertility choice is continuous, and there is no uncertainty over the number of surviving children. The baseline model is contrasted to an extension with discrete fertility choice and stochastic mortality and a setup with sequential fertility choice. The quantitative predictions of the models are remarkably similar. While in each model the total fertility rate falls as child mortality declines, the number of surviving children increases. The results suggest that factors other than declining infant and child mortality are responsible for the large decline in net reproduction rates observed in industrialized countries over the last century. Financial support by the National Science Foundation (grant SES-0217051) and the UCLA Academic Senate is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Sebnem Kalemli-Oczan, Rodrigo Soares, and two anonymous referees for comments that helped to substantially improve the paper. Olesya Baker and Ilya Berger provided excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The Institutional Challenge of the ACP/EU Economic Partnership Agreements

The Economic Partnership Agreements between the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries and the European Union should serve as an opportunity to accelerate ACP global and regional trade integration and as an important tool for development and the eradication of poverty. There are, however, a number of preconditions. This article argues that institutional quality plays a key role in successful trade liberalisation. In fact, only countries with high‐quality institutions, partly in the form of good government regulation, are likely to benefit from trade. Unfortunately, the vast majority of African countries have excessive regulation that hinders them from taking advantage of trade. The necessary reforms to resolve this problem pose significant challenges, implying major risks for these countries in the EPA process.